Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

i was saying.....

[Marky147]

they have tried to stick by him, but if they lose Hughes is a goner right? Redknapp waiting in the wings....

I hope so

[Tal]

Odd one...

Slavia Prague v Viktoria Plzen.

5th v 4th in the league. Slavia unbeaten in 8 at home and have scored in all of them.

Karol Kisel has returned from Sydney to score 5 in 11 from midfield. Plzen have made a habit of conceding late in games this season.

Current prices:
Slavia 3-1 (bet365)
Draw 13-5 (betfair)
Plzen 11/10 (pinnacle)

Slavia with draw no bet 2.86 on betfair. Am not expecting a goal fest, with two of the best defences in the division.

Any thoughts?

[TheDazzler]

Can someone explain the price on Liverpool this weekend to me because I don't understand it.  I have looked at it again and again and I cannot comprehend it.

The other week I was mistaken in my belief that Liverpool had improved.  They now appear to be as bad as they were before.  I have laid at 1.59. 

Bump for tikay.  There was lots of agreement on laying Liverpool before this post

I also quoted this article.
http://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/article/165/8217270/newcastle-value-in-anfield-battle

Came across a Sklansky post about this kind of situation (the rest of the thread is useless so don't bother reading)


Its about the theories of Burton Fabricand and my precept that I called the Fundamental Theory of Investing. FTOI sates that if you can't explain why people are taking the other side of a bet you like, don't bet. Fabricand essentially says that if the odds you can get on something are clearly worse than what it appears you should be able to get, you should actually bet the other side, if the vig is small.


http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showpost.php?p=35353696&postcount=1

So what he is saying is that if odds are a lot bigger than they "should" be and you can't explain why, you not only shouldn't bet, but should probably bet the other side.

That's pretty interesting and certainly brings up a good point.
I could posit some theories.
I said before I believe there is a significant amount of 'mug money' from Asia and we know that big Asian syndicates have favoured Pool also. So instead of the bookies pricing it 'correctly', perhaps they are having Pool shorter in order to avoid having an extra large liability in the event of a Pool victory. So they are in effect pricing it in such a way that they'll have a balanced book with 33% liability of each of the 3 results with them picking up their % margin.

Or perhaps Pool are just running bad at home. For a whole season and a half.
But even if that's the case, running bad often leads to playing bad. They were booed off against Swansea. So what does that crowd reaction do to players? It makes them play suboptimally. It makes them risk averse and low on confidence, they don't want to be the player that gives the ball away to more boos so they take a safety first route.

Or maybe I'm talking tosh. I don't understand why people are taking these prices on Pool but what I do know is that they are losing their cobblers, week in, week out. For these prices to be correct, Pool are not far off a top 4 side. They are clearly not.

[Tal]

Ba fit and starts.

Am getting on.

[hector62]

London Welsh  6   Bath   3   H /T

Sounds like 30 Kent the dents playing each other.

[tikay]

Liverpool v Newcastle.

I don't know who owns this bet, (someone remind me, or claim it, please), & I'm dead rushed right now, having rested my eyes longer than planned, but here is what we have done.

We have BACKED Newcastle, £10 @ 5/1, Blue Square.

We have LAID Liverpool, £50 @ 1.65, Betfair.

ON


Fixtures 04 November / Liverpool v Newcastle / Match Odds  Liverpool Lay 23208647317  04-Nov-12
15:50    1.66 50.00  1.65 04-Nov-12 15:50


____________

 Newcastle United @ 5/1 
Market
 Win/Draw/Win
 
Event
 English Premier League
Liverpool v Newcastle United
2012-11-04 16:00:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Win Single
 
Unit Stake
 £10.00
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £10.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2012-11-04 15:46:07
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000126
 

[tikay]

Offline again now, will be back to process stuff between 5pm & 6pm, then after Midnight.

Enjoy your Sunday evening.

[Tal]

The Dazzler proposed your Liv-New bet, sir.

[TheDazzler]

Liverpool v Newcastle.

I don't know who owns this bet, (someone remind me, or claim it, please), & I'm dead rushed right now, having rested my eyes longer than planned, but here is what we have done.

We have BACKED Newcastle, £10 @ 5/1, Blue Square.

We have LAID Liverpool, £50 @ 1.65, Betfair.

ON


Fixtures 04 November / Liverpool v Newcastle / Match Odds  Liverpool Lay 23208647317  04-Nov-12
15:50    1.66 50.00  1.65 04-Nov-12 15:50


____________

Wait till after the match. If it loses, you'll see that defeat is an orphan. If it wins, success has many fathers

Split it between me, Red and Doobs (if they are happy with that?).

[Tal]

Sorry, Dazzler. Only answered the question in the sense that you put the numbers in for this particular bet.

[Doobs]

Liverpool v Newcastle.

I don't know who owns this bet, (someone remind me, or claim it, please), & I'm dead rushed right now, having rested my eyes longer than planned, but here is what we have done.

We have BACKED Newcastle, £10 @ 5/1, Blue Square.

We have LAID Liverpool, £50 @ 1.65, Betfair.

ON


Fixtures 04 November / Liverpool v Newcastle / Match Odds  Liverpool Lay 23208647317  04-Nov-12
15:50    1.66 50.00  1.65 04-Nov-12 15:50


____________

Wait till after the match. If it loses, you'll see that defeat is an orphan. If it wins, success has many fathers

Split it between me, Red and Doobs (if they are happy with that?).

Is fine

[tikay]

I'm getting the current scrore in the Rugby as 9-9, after 80 minutes........!


http://www.flashscore.com/match/8jBt9vOt/#match-summary

[horseplayer]

I'm getting the current scrore in the Rugby as 9-9, after 80 minutes........!


http://www.flashscore.com/match/8jBt9vOt/#match-summary

ouch still  a win nearly jackpot

good call very good

[tikay]

Now 16-9 London Welsh.