Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Afternoon Mr T.

First off don't overlook the Del Potro suggestion put up by Mr Beetle as it looks good to me. Today I came across a tennis stats site that fits my needs perfectly. No doubt everyone else has been using it for ages but not Mr Ice cream here. Anyway here is the link for anyone who hasn't seen it before.

http://www.tennisexplorer.com

I have spent the morning mulling over a tennis bet for today's game between Murray and Berdych. Head to head Berdych leads 4-3, he recently won a tournament in Sweden played indoors, and the last time these 2 met indoors Berdych won. I think as usual the bookies here have Murray too short because they know that the Brits will back him regardless. I may be swayed against Murray as I had backed him to win his last tournament and he lost a match to a nondescript Pole despite having match point but I think anything at better than 2-1 is worth backing.

Suggest Berdych to beat Murray £20  @ 5-2 Boylesport.

It's on BBC2 as well so I can get to watch Mr Miseryguts hopefully lose.

Afternoon Mr Mystery Rugby Player,

Thanks for the Del Potro "support", I needed some views on that, Tennis is not really my thing, & I lost interest when Fred Perry retired.

Starting with your bet, we have £20 with Boyle @ 5/2, Mr Berdych to beat Mr Murray this afternoon.

I believe Tennis is one of those sports where keeping an eye on Betfair during the game can be quite useful, to lock up profits. Not that we'll green out of course, oh no Sirree.

ON

Bet placed, reference 46/47
   
Bet ref: 46/47£20.00 Single
Market Selection Price
A.Murray v T.Berdych
Match Winner T.Berdych 5/2
Total stake £20.00
Estimated return £70.00

Full stake £20.00
Full Estimated return £70.00

[tikay]

I think there is value in the World Tour Finals of the ATP which starts at the 02 this week.

Paris last week was bizarre, with a huge number of upsets as players had their eyes on this week.  David Ferrer won it, but his semi/final opponents were wildcard Michael Llodra and qualifier Jerzy Janowicz which tells a story.  Indeed the fact that he has won back to back in the last 2 weeks is enough to discount Ferrer for me as he may be overcooked, and faces a big step up here.

The man I want to get with is Juan Martin Del Potro at 10/1.  He is in the easier group (Federer, Tipsarevic , Ferrer) and I would expect him to come through this group.  Indeed he beat Federer a couple of weeks back in the final at the Swiss indoor event (and of course this one is also an indoor event).

On the other side, Andy Murray is obviously a big threat at home, whilst Novak Djokovic seems understandably distracted by the poor health of his father after losing to Sam Querrey in Paris after winning the first 8 games of the contest.  Tsonga and Berdych are clearly a threat when “on it” but Del Potro is more consistent than this pair.

I think 10/1 or better is value for a bit of tennis interest for the week ahead.   The action starts this afternoon, but Delpo doesn’t play till tomorrow so a while for Fred to chew the fat on this one.

Morning Dung.

tHere has been a bit of warmth for this, so yes, we are on.

He was quoted at 10/1 in 5 spots half an hour ago, now he is 9/1 everywhere, but I eventually took 10.5 (19/2) with Betfair.

We have £20 @ 10.5, Betfair, Dol Petro, to win the London ATP thing.

ON

Back (Bet For) Odds Stake Profit
ATP World Tour Finals 2012
Juan Martin Del PotroWinner    10.5 £20.00 £190.00
Bet Ref: 23223175499M Bet matched: 2012-11-05T12:21:28.000Z

[hector62]

I too have noticed the swings in prices during tennis matches and I can't believe that they are correct to change their prices so much point by point. I am sure there is profit there somewhere but how best to get it has not come to me.

[tikay]

I too have noticed the swings in prices during tennis matches and I can't believe that they are correct to change their prices so much point by point. I am sure there is profit there somewhere but how best to get it has not come to me.

Mere is a genius at "trading" Tennis in-running, that was how he became a millionaire, & he has been kind enough to mark my card on occasion. To be fair, he studies the form intently, especially in the Ladies game.

[david3103]

Manchester City v Ajax

Ajax outplayed City in the game in Amsterdam and despite City taking an unlikely lead they ran out 3-1 winners. (small brag, I was driving home listening to the game and pulled over to back Ajax after City had scored    )
City's CL record is poor at best and although their 3 wins have all come at home they are in a spot of bother at the moment with issues between manager and players and were lucky not to lose on Saturday.

Perhaps worth £20 at 15/2 at Paddy Power or similar on betfair ?

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 1pm, Monday November 5th

PROFIT on Month = £655.00

Unsettled Bets  - £497.50



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=14

[DungBeetle]

There are a lot of factors surrounding the tennis trading angle - how quick your TV feed is, the fact that there are people betting courtside or in the press room (although banned) and the fact that BF has a time delay when placing bets (although I think this can be removed).

I'm sure Neil will know about this, but my understanding is the in-play tennis bettor is a life beset by many practical complexity (not least Betfairs hidious premium charge)

[horseplayer]

There are a lot of factors surrounding the tennis trading angle - how quick your TV feed is, the fact that there are people betting courtside or in the press room (although banned) and the fact that BF has a time delay when placing bets (although I think this can be removed).

I'm sure Neil will know about this, but my understanding is the in-play tennis bettor is a life beset by many practical complexity (not least Betfairs hidious premium charge)

correct

the money if it was to be made in this was a few years back unless you are now a courtsider

[Doobs]

There are a lot of factors surrounding the tennis trading angle - how quick your TV feed is, the fact that there are people betting courtside or in the press room (although banned) and the fact that BF has a time delay when placing bets (although I think this can be removed).

I'm sure Neil will know about this, but my understanding is the in-play tennis bettor is a life beset by many practical complexity (not least Betfairs hidious premium charge)

correct

the money if it was to be made in this was a few years back unless you are now a courtsider

Yep,  used to know a full time tennis trader.  Premium charge and delay crippled profits.  I'd be surprised if there is any bias towards Murray in the betting.  I don't think the speed of feed used to be much of an issue but this was a few years ago.  He made his money from market over-reactions as far as I know.

Every man and his dog knows that there is this "bias" in the bookies odds and have seen it mentioned here several times.  I wouldn't be at all surprised if the bias is the other way because of people betting against the bias.  I have frequently thought that the England football team were overpriced and put it down to the betting against the perceived bias.  I'd add that Murray isn't universally liked so I wouldn't like to even guess the ratio of people betting because they want him to lose vs those betting because they want him to win.  Personally I think he is just misunderstood and am always pleased when he wins.

Would be happier to accept the head to head angle though 7 is a very small sample.

We aren't ever greening out in a tennis match in the thread.  The delay between the message getting to tikay and the delay on Betfair accepting the price and the fact the "market" is likely to have a better feed suggests that we aren't likely to get a good price for greening out.

Talking of greening out, it doesn't look like Sir Bradley is going to be in the reality gubbins, but I don't think we greened out at a bad price and it freed up finds so no real harm done.

[tikay]

Daily Report as at 1.50pm, Monday November 5th

We made a profit of £117 yesterday.

6 bets completed (counting "related" bets as one), of which 4 were winners.

This is our 4th straight winning day - the run has to end soon - but it has definitely given a change of mood & some feel-good.

Heading the list was the Obama bet (reds) which netted £80. This was a very rare MAX for us, but the price hardened consistently after we got on. We bet the MAX very rarely indeed, but this was an exceptional spot, & had to be done.

The hector special on London Welsh was next, we had the win @ 5/2 & the draw at 22/1, & we so nearly got the latter, the winning score must have been the last touch of the game, but a net profit of £45 was just fine.

Newcastle-Liverpool netted us £40, including a very rare Lay for us, (I get scared of pressing wrong buttons), the owner has been put down as Dazzler, "assisted by reds & Doobs". We may have been a bit fortunate with this one, but it cuts both ways over time.

A small (£2.50) profit arose from the Tony Watt goalscorer bet, (Teacake) which was £10 EW. Actually.......when I checked my Account this morning, it had been listed as a loser. So I checked the Betslip (which was C & P onto the thread yesterday) & it appears that I mis-clicked, & just backed it as a "£10 Win". (Nobody noticed!). This was a palbable error by me, so as far as Fred is concerned, the intended bet stands.

We had 3 NFL Bets, too (2 were related) & NFL is something we usually do well in, but all three went south. Maybe we will recover some of those losses tonight.

Another good day. 

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[hector62]

First set to Berdych.

If you weren't tending your allotment Mr T then I would suggest greening out.

[tikay]

First set to Berdych.

If you weren't tending your allotment Mr T then I would suggest greening out.

The allotment has been delayed, I am watching the tennis, and observing how the odds move as the game progresses.

Berdych is now 4/5 to win the game, we are on at 5/2.

It's your bet, so your decision......( I won't tell Camel).

[tikay]

By the way, when did tennis players start wearing garish Matalan style coloured apparel? Tennis players should wear White tops, white shorts, white socks, and white plimsolls.

Disgraceful.

[hector62]

My nittiness always thinks green but then I don't want to be thought of as a eunuch. How about if he reaches 1-2 then you should feel free to do it.

I was watching the odds and after the first point Berdych went from 2-1 to 9/4- crazy.

[tikay]

He was 1.48 just now, but back to 1.55 now.