Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

Word on the betfair forum is that everyone is piling into WBA.  Is this one of those times to swim against the tide on value grounds and lay WBA?

[DungBeetle]

Why is Gary Neville holding the longest pen I have ever seen?

[horseplayer]

i have backed unders

i have backed saints

i have dutched McAuley, Olsson and fonte first scorer on betfair

i have saved on no goalscorer




i am probably mad

[tikay]

Another one, well done.

Looking forward to Liverpool being odds on for the next home game, and being backed in for the 27th game in a row....

Typically me, about a year late, maybe we ought to just do this blind until they turn the corner.

Are there any other examples of teams which are being over-rated for historical reasons?

No, because no-one has a history to match.

While I'm here, what are the rules to this thread, I posted about Port Vale earlier (a bit of a random post from me on this thread) and then thought it could be a closed group tipster thread for experts (of which there any many!) rather than random tippers?!

Hi Waz,

Sorry I never replied before, I have been a little busy, but it's important that I (try to.....) answer that question.

It's a little hard for Fred newbies who have not followed all 1300+ pages, but I'll try & summarise.

It is DEFINITELY not a "closed thread for experts" - the more the merrier as far as I am concerned.

There are no real Fred Rules as such, except that we don't do aftertiming, don't mock anyone, we try & support each other, we don't argue (debate wins all day), & most of all, over & above all those things, we try & have some fun at no cost.

When it began, most of us were - or still are - "ice creams" (mug punters). A group of pro punters, who make a living from punting - we call them "Elders", though they are not old, just a little curmudgeonly at times - they steer us, help us understand how to make money from betting, or at the very least, not lose money.

Their advice is absolutely golden, & you'd not regret having a bit of a read through.

So, anyone can put a bet up, and anyone can follow that bet & have it for themselves.

I have the sometimes unenviable job of "keeping score", & I do that by taking advice from our various experts, then backing, or not, the selection. My bets are real - the Betslip is always c&p onto the thread, & a spreadsheet is kept detailing our profits & losses.

See....


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=7

We have been doing this for 10 months, have spent just over £30,000, & made a small profit over that period of around £600. (As can be seen from the spready).

This would have been impossible for most of us, pre-Fred.

Bookmakers work to a theoretical margin, let's assume it is 10%, so even if we get a lot of our bets right, we would still lose money - the bookies margin. 

We (try to) overcome that for looking for edges, or angles. That really boils down, in most cases, to a simple equation.

If the true price of a selection is 6/4, & the bookie is offering 2/1, we have a bet. If the true price is 2/1, & the bookie offers 6/4, we won't bet. In theory.

For example, we backed an outsider yesterday, because it was thought to be effectively a 6/4 shot in a 2 horse race, when we could get 5/2. So it had to be a bet. 

So, returning to your original selection, (with apologies that I never replied at the time), you wrote....


"Port Vale 11/10 looks good?

Leicester 5/4

middlesboro 19/10

small bet on the treble looks tempting"


That could never be placed by Fred, because it did not demonstrate that the prices represented value. In all likelihood, it was almost certain that the prices were correct.  So if the prices were correct, we would not bet, as the prices included the bookies margin. And we need to beat that margin to win.

As a side issue, personally, I almost NEVER back doubles, trebles or the like, except in special circumstances, because I believe it gives the bookie several chances to win our money, & I am super-nitty, so prefer singles. That is not a "Fred Rule" though, & exceptions are made in very rare circumstances.

I hope that helps explain how it is supposed to work.

Any questions fire away.

[tikay]

Word on the betfair forum is that everyone is piling into WBA.  Is this one of those times to swim against the tide on value grounds and lay WBA?

WBA were 1.8 this morning, went to 1.95 briefly late afternoon, & are back to around 1.8 now.

PS - I think Neville's "pen" is (careful not to run those 2 words together) probably a dubree, with which to help work the plasma whatsit. 

[DungBeetle]

Ah - that is what it was.  Thought it was one of those oversized ones with different colours that could  be selected.  Thought Sky were doing their bit in these austere times.

[DungBeetle]

Thanks for price colour on West Brom - didn't realise they had drifted today.

[tikay]

Thanks for price colour on West Brom - didn't realise they had drifted today.

I only know because I have been watching it keenly all day, as I suspected some value was there to be had if the price moved to my target. Hence I checked the price hourly.

[horseplayer]

a red for that would have been nice

[tikay]

a red for that would have been nice

Depends who we are on.......

[Doobs]

11's was definitely best price this morning.

Antonio has always been good for a goal though and I view 11's as a good price. Also value when you release we go into 4-5-1/4-3-3 mode sometimes and he makes the 3 up. Also scored a few last season.

Agree each way no good, did not think it see anytime price. Prob would go £10 each bet.

Hi Aaron.

No, at 9am this morning, he was available at 12/1 in three spots.

He is now 12/1 with 4 firms.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/sheffield-wednesday-v-blackpool/first-goalscorer

For "Anytime" he is best priced 5/1, in two spots.



http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/sheffield-wednesday-v-blackpool/anytime-goalscorer

Every time I have looked it has been 11/1 (now in 4 spots).  There are two possible reasons. Oddschecker is playing up after the upgrade, or tikay has his prices set to decimal instead of traditional. 

I think Aaron is probably right and tikay is probably wrong.  11/1 seams fine for a banzai tenner.  I have faith in Aaron and am getting some cake in already. 

[Waz1892]

Another one, well done.

Looking forward to Liverpool being odds on for the next home game, and being backed in for the 27th game in a row....

Typically me, about a year late, maybe we ought to just do this blind until they turn the corner.

Are there any other examples of teams which are being over-rated for historical reasons?

No, because no-one has a history to match.

While I'm here, what are the rules to this thread, I posted about Port Vale earlier (a bit of a random post from me on this thread) and then thought it could be a closed group tipster thread for experts (of which there any many!) rather than random tippers?!

Hi Waz,

Sorry I never replied before, I have been a little busy, but it's important that I (try to.....) answer that question.

It's a little hard for Fred newbies who have not followed all 1300+ pages, but I'll try & summarise.

It is DEFINITELY not a "closed thread for experts" - the more the merrier as far as I am concerned.

There are no real Fred Rules as such, except that we don't do aftertiming, don't mock anyone, we try & support each other, we don't argue (debate wins all day), & most of all, over & above all those things, we try & have some fun at no cost.

When it began, most of us were - or still are - "ice creams" (mug punters). A group of pro punters, who make a living from punting - we call them "Elders", though they are not old, just a little curmudgeonly at times - they steer us, help us understand how to make money from betting, or at the very least, not lose money.

Their advice is absolutely golden, & you'd not regret having a bit of a read through.

So, anyone can put a bet up, and anyone can follow that bet & have it for themselves.

I have the sometimes unenviable job of "keeping score", & I do that by taking advice from our various experts, then backing, or not, the selection. My bets are real - the Betslip is always c&p onto the thread, & a spreadsheet is kept detailing our profits & losses.

See....


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=7

We have been doing this for 10 months, have spent just over £30,000, & made a small profit over that period of around £600. (As can be seen from the spready).

This would have been impossible for most of us, pre-Fred.

Bookmakers work to a theoretical margin, let's assume it is 10%, so even if we get a lot of our bets right, we would still lose money - the bookies margin. 

We (try to) overcome that for looking for edges, or angles. That really boils down, in most cases, to a simple equation.

If the true price of a selection is 6/4, & the bookie is offering 2/1, we have a bet. If the true price is 2/1, & the bookie offers 6/4, we won't bet. In theory.

For example, we backed an outsider yesterday, because it was thought to be effectively a 6/4 shot in a 2 horse race, when we could get 5/2. So it had to be a bet. 

So, returning to your original selection, (with apologies that I never replied at the time), you wrote....


"Port Vale 11/10 looks good?

Leicester 5/4

middlesboro 19/10

small bet on the treble looks tempting"


That could never be placed by Fred, because it did not demonstrate that the prices represented value. In all likelihood, it was almost certain that the prices were correct.  So if the prices were correct, we would not bet, as the prices included the bookies margin. And we need to beat that margin to win.

As a side issue, personally, I almost NEVER back doubles, trebles or the like, except in special circumstances, because I believe it gives the bookie several chances to win our money, & I am super-nitty, so prefer singles. That is not a "Fred Rule" though, & exceptions are made in very rare circumstances.

I hope that helps explain how it is supposed to work.

Any questions fire away.

Hi Mr Tikay!

Thanking you Sir for the explaination, I certainly didnt realise the method to the thread.  My bad for not reading the 1300+, or at least not scan reading some!

Simply figured it was a betting/tips thread where people posted bets they thought were good..port vale for example.

Won't pretend to fully understand bookies margins and how you know what the true odds are and how to spot edges and angles, but I'm sure I'll pick it up over time.

Best of luck with it all, and will certainly be following everyone's progress and learning along the way!

(You've made me smile for the 2nd time!, First time when you mentioned my name on skypoker back in the day, pronouced it wrong (Woz not Waz) and you beasted me on live TV and said that it was my fault for spelling it the way i did!!  Waz1974....I do agree though, I forgive you easliy enough because you went on to say i played the hand you were reviewing well!)

[tikay]

Continuing the "probably" theme, Aaron and Doobsy are probably correct.....

Apologies.

I always have Oddschecker set to proper prices......(traditional) but it probably......reset itself when they introduced the new version. Which they then withdrew.

[Doobs]

Continuing the "probably" theme, Aaron and Doobsy are probably correct.....

Apologies.

I always have Oddschecker set to proper prices......(traditional) but it probably......reset itself when they introduced the new version. Which they then withdrew.

I clicked the prices to check on skybet and have probably put £50 on FGS and anytime at 11s and .  Had some money burning a hole in my skybet account since last night's mini main event on Sky.  I need to convert it to main event money to make up for another losing Sunday*

Don't let me down Aaron. 

As an aside I spent the afternoon getting soaked at Huntingdon races.   As the racing was so dire I dropped my standard bet from £20 to a tenner.  Not only did I back the winner in the first 4, but three of them hacked up.  Need to spend less time playing poker in a hoodie and more time random punting I think.

[tikay]

Waz:

"....You've made me smile for the 2nd time!, First time when you mentioned my name on skypoker back in the day, pronouced it wrong (Woz not Waz) and you beasted me on live TV and said that it was my fault for spelling it the way i did!!  Waz1974....I do agree though, I forgive you easliy enough because you went on to say i played the hand you were reviewing well...."

Whoops!

We - all of us - are so precious with our names, & I get more PM's & e-Mails about mispronounced names than you could ever imagine.

I got a little complaint today, as it happens. It was nice, but the chap was obviously a little disappointed in me.

His screen-name was "BigWal1" or similar, but it came out on the in-studio graphics as "BigWoli", so I referred to him as "Big Wolly". Which was probably not very bright of me, to be fair.

Anyway, hope you enjoy the thread now.