Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

I think QPR have a vital 5 weeks ahead - think they are playing Saints, Stoke, Wigan, Sunderland, Villa, Fulham, with only Man Utd being an unwinnable game.  If they fail to pick up a win in either the Stoke or Saints game I can see them making a managerial change as the season may be gone by Xmas, as after that they have a run of Liverpool, Chelsea, Spurs, West Ham, Man City.

In terms of odds they still feel like they have a better squad than the other lowrollers, but as I said I think this next run of game decides much.

[DungBeetle]

Going to back to manager chat have Paul Ince and Roy Keane really been that bad?  I agree Robson and Barnes have surely had their last chances, but the other 2 can point at moderate success?

[horseplayer]

i think if you have a big rep as a player you generally speaking get a start at higher level than a random coach who has coached for ten years already

what comes with it is an expectation to be as good as you as a player

[DungBeetle]

yes - that is certainly true I think.   Although recently Ince, Di Matteo, Poyet, Di Canio have all started in L1/L2 so maybe that trend is shifting.  Certainly most Premier managers now have either prior experience, or got their teams there in the first place.

Steve Clarke the only person who had it as a starter job - and even he had tons of assistant manager experience?

[redarmi]

The new manager factor improvement is generally a myth but there are certain circumstances where it makes some sense and I agree totally with Tighty's post that this is one of those situations.  There must be a general sense of optimism around Ipswich whereas I would think there may be a general nervousness around Palace right now.  I couldn't back Palace at evens and it seems to be the first time this season they are priced according to their results rather than preseason perceptions.  If anything I would favour Ipswich marginally.  As for Boro it looks priced right to me.

[AndrewT]

The thing is that we're not playing dreadfully. Yes, we're very flaky at the back but there has been real progress with the team. Granero and Diakite work well in midfield, Taarabt plays so much better under Hughes than he did under Warnock (fker still won't pass though) and Cisse does provide some real cutting edge up front (though he does feed off energy elsewhere in the team rather than start it himself).

We drew with Chelsea, would have drawn at Arsenal were it not for Mbia's stupid sending off and an offside goal and totally bossed a game at Tottenham until we got stung by two goals in a minute. (that's 3 straws I've picked up)

If our season were a HEM graph we'd be running way under $EV.

I just do not see us going down.

However, I am prepared to admit that my speculative £10 on us getting in the top 6 this season may not be seen again.

[redarmi]

The thing is that we're not playing dreadfully. Yes, we're very flaky at the back but there has been real progress with the team. Granero and Diakite work well in midfield, Taarabt plays so much better under Hughes than he did under Warnock (fker still won't pass though) and Cisse does provide some real cutting edge up front (though he does feed off energy elsewhere in the team rather than start it himself).

We drew with Chelsea, would have drawn at Arsenal were it not for Mbia's stupid sending off and an offside goal and totally bossed a game at Tottenham until we got stung by two goals in a minute. (that's 3 straws I've picked up)

If our season were a HEM graph we'd be running way under $EV.

I just do not see us going down.

However, I am prepared to admit that my speculative £10 on us getting in the top 6 this season may not be seen again.

I think this is true and it was my intention to start betting them starting last week and I did bet them this week but the problem with these so called problems  is that they become self fulfilling and people start looking for scapegoats for their "bad form" which wasnt actually that bad so the in fighting starts and just gains momentum and it seems to me that losing this week was probably the tipping point for QPR.

[TightEnd]

Parking an idea for tomorrow

Did anyone see the wonderful pundit Gary Neville on MNF last night?

How good is he? Tremendous insights. Great research done for him and he is very cogent.

Anyway he was talking about Chelsea's squad  and their playing time this season. Anyone see it?

Mata, Oscar, Hazard, Mikel..the engine room of the team have all palyed 19 hours on the pitch so far this season and he contrasted this with the Man U and Man C squads where Tevez has played 17 hours, no one else over 12 hours

Neville then went on to present analysis of Swansea v Chelsea and showed how Chelsea tired towards the end with a look at Swansea's goal and how it wasn't closed down etc etc

Di Matteo hasn't rotated his midfield much this season, in part because Lampard is injured and Neville was suggesting that "miles in the legs" will cost Chelsea as the season develops

These guys have played Saturday v Man U, Extra Time midweek v Man U and now Swansea over seven days and tomorrow host a very dangerous Shakthar team for a fourth tough one in ten days

Shakthar are over 3-1 to win (or lay Chelsea)

Idea parked.

[TightEnd]

Final one (sorry, throwing a lot out there today)

Ajax 7-1 tonight at Man C.

Discuss.

[Matt.NFFC.]

I saw MNF last night and Gary was spot on IMO.......Lay Chelsea is good.

[horseplayer]

i very rarely watch the analysis but last night was utter class

[DungBeetle]

Certainly agree that Di Matteo is over-using some of his players, but not sure it will bite him this early in the the season?

[redsimon]

Premiership relegation

Taking one current market

Southampton 1/2
Reading 4/6
Norwich 5/4
QPR 9/5
Villa 9/4
Wigan 13/5

Boylesports (who are best priced on QPR)

Ten matches in

14    Norwich    10    2    2    1    5    6    0    2    3    3    12    -10    10    
15    Stoke    10    1    3    0    3    1    0    3    3    5    9    -2    9    
16    Sunderland    9    1    2    1    3    3    0    4    1    3    6    -3    9    
17    Aston Villa    10    1    2    1    5    5    1    1    4    3    9    -6    9    
18    Reading    9    0    3    1    7    9    0    2    3    5    9    -6    5    
19    QPR    10    0    3    2    3    9    0    1    4    5    10    -11    4    
20    Southampton    10    1    1    3    9    10    0    0    5    5    18    -14    4

For QPR:

Fernandes keeps saying Hughes has all season (this might actually be a situation where a managerial change is needed?)

There is a view that QPR have had a very tough start, will take a while for all these new players to gel etc. However they have just started to play fellow bottom dwellers and have beaten none of them


Please explain to me why Norwich are shorter than QPR to go down?

They have a six point head start after a quarter of the season for starters!


I am not necessarily suggesting thread should tie up capital til May on a 9/5 shot, but in practice they are more like 5/4 to go down than 9/5 aren't they?

Camel? AndrewT? everyone else?

Any views on Villa's price?

[tikay]

Final one (sorry, throwing a lot out there today)

Ajax 7-1 tonight at Man C.

Discuss.

Stop it Rich!

I keep looking at that 7/1, it's ridiculous.

I think Man C will win, & I hope they do, but 7/1.......

PS +1 to the Gary Neville comments. Spellbindingly good. Even with his great big thingie.

[redarmi]

Final one (sorry, throwing a lot out there today)

Ajax 7-1 tonight at Man C.

Discuss.

Yeah I have bet Ajax although the market seems to like City a bit.  No Toure or Silva for City and they must have a negative mental association with Champs League nights by now.  Think I prefer +1.5 goals marginally though.