Tips for Tikay

[kukushkin88]

Right i have lost the plot and put up £2302 across the Palace and Middlesbrough games tomorrow on both to win. I didn't even back optimal odds as i was using sites that already had money in. Just terrible punting tekkers but should be a decent sweat for a few peeps while having a look at the results tomoz.

I repeat that i didn't know quite what i was doing with this one and that you guys can take me apart on the application of the bets.

Before i tell you I am going to say why I am backing both teams. Palace at around evens is great value and I highly recommend the bet to you Tikay as a single. We have been unbeaten in 11 games with a strong argument to suggest we were good to win every single one of those. We were emphatic in our 2-0 beating of Blackburn who were 5th pre game and made them look like League 1 opposition apparently. Plus we squandered a penalty. Ipswich have a new manager in, yes, and they won their last game, but they beat a misfiring Birmingham who have been pretty woefal this season. Plus they missed three golden opportunities at the end to put the game to bed but were just lacking confidence. Ipswich's form has been terrible and are bottom of the table. I have the true value of this game rated at about 1.6 on the Palace win but we are at 1.96. What do I know though?

Middlesbrough are around 3.6 best price to beat Nottingham Forest away. They have won their last 6 straight and have been hugely dominant. Forrest got embarrassed by Millwall 4-1 on the weekend, while Boro smashed Charlton by the same scoreline. Form has Forest doing well with them beating Cardiff 3-1 at home recently, but I think that Middlesbrough on the form they are on could well get a win here and see the value of this bet better than the 3.6 available.

Palace I think has undoubted huge value and Middlesbrough has smaller value but value nonetheless.

Now to my betting.

£1000 @ 19/20 for the Palace win, £400 on the Boro win @ 23/10, lay bet on Ipswich with $207 liable effective 1/4 odds (made a mistake with the bet, meant to just back Palace), £400 @ 5/2 on Boro win and £371 @ 5.72/1 on Boro/Palace double.

£2302 laid out across all bets.

If Palace win and Middlesbrough don't = -£187

If Palace don't win and Middlesbrough do = +£418

If Palace and Middlesbrough both win = +£5023.13

If Palace and Middlesbrough both fail to win = -£2302

I will be in attendance at Selhurst Park.

I remember only wanting to bet on Palace today and somehow this all happened. I am going to be feeling sick tomorrow night I hope Palace win at the very least, the £187 loss would be fine enough.

Huge value on the Palace win Tikay, hopefully peeps back me up on that at least.

MATCH FACTS
Head-to-head

• Middlesbrough picked up only their second win in 31 league matches against Nottingham Forest spanning 38 years, with a 2-1 triumph at the Riverside in their last meeting in February.

• Forest are bidding for a fourth successive home league win over the Teesside club, and have failed to gain at least a point in only one of their last 16 clashes with them at the City Ground.

• 'Boro have failed to score in six of their last nine trips to the east Midlands clubs, including the last three.

The last fact i think is a little trivial and probably coincidental but the first two can't be ignored. I didn't realise the trouble Middlesbrough were having with Forest for a long time now. I do hope though that winning 5 on the trot in the league would hopefully dispel history like this and reduce proceedings only to how well both teams have been playing recently. I then fancy Boro at the 2.5/1 as decent value. McDonald is on fire. I do know though that it only takes one Reid free kick to mess up any high flyers' plans at the City Ground. Along with, of course, your other threats and how devastating you can be when you turn it on.

All the responses about McCarthy's impact and how badly treated Jewell was is fair and obviously the effect of this appointment is probably going to be much greater than that of Holloway to Palace. However, don't overlook that Palace have been on fire and Ipswich's turn around has literally been one game old. Factor in also, how they were very lucky to even get a point after some terrible Birmingham finishing. I honestly think Palace will tear them apart tonight and that the market is showing odds of a little over evens now, when it should be closer to 1.5. It is the second best team (form wise) in the Championship at home against the second worst team (form wise), who are having to play away. I am not sure if Middlesbrough or Cardiff shared Palace's exact form and were at home against Ipswich in the same circumstances, that the price would be anywhere near evens.

Brighton haven't won in their last 6 games and are home tonight against Peterborough who have won 3 of their last 6 games and Brighton are 8/13 best price, with most around 4/7. I think this shows the value in the Palace tie. However, I assume it is the appointment of McCarthy that will make most of you assume the odds are correct and they may well be. I am pretty much a mug punter.

FWIW I don´t think you have value on either bet but the history Boro @ Forest is completely irrelevant, I´m not sure what relevance anyone thinks it could have, they are very different teams to those that contested previous Forest/Boro fixtures history between the clubs really doesn´t count for anything.

[Ant040689]

Right i have lost the plot and put up £2302 across the Palace and Middlesbrough games tomorrow on both to win. I didn't even back optimal odds as i was using sites that already had money in. Just terrible punting tekkers but should be a decent sweat for a few peeps while having a look at the results tomoz.

I repeat that i didn't know quite what i was doing with this one and that you guys can take me apart on the application of the bets.

Before i tell you I am going to say why I am backing both teams. Palace at around evens is great value and I highly recommend the bet to you Tikay as a single. We have been unbeaten in 11 games with a strong argument to suggest we were good to win every single one of those. We were emphatic in our 2-0 beating of Blackburn who were 5th pre game and made them look like League 1 opposition apparently. Plus we squandered a penalty. Ipswich have a new manager in, yes, and they won their last game, but they beat a misfiring Birmingham who have been pretty woefal this season. Plus they missed three golden opportunities at the end to put the game to bed but were just lacking confidence. Ipswich's form has been terrible and are bottom of the table. I have the true value of this game rated at about 1.6 on the Palace win but we are at 1.96. What do I know though?

Middlesbrough are around 3.6 best price to beat Nottingham Forest away. They have won their last 6 straight and have been hugely dominant. Forrest got embarrassed by Millwall 4-1 on the weekend, while Boro smashed Charlton by the same scoreline. Form has Forest doing well with them beating Cardiff 3-1 at home recently, but I think that Middlesbrough on the form they are on could well get a win here and see the value of this bet better than the 3.6 available.

Palace I think has undoubted huge value and Middlesbrough has smaller value but value nonetheless.

Now to my betting.

£1000 @ 19/20 for the Palace win, £400 on the Boro win @ 23/10, lay bet on Ipswich with $207 liable effective 1/4 odds (made a mistake with the bet, meant to just back Palace), £400 @ 5/2 on Boro win and £371 @ 5.72/1 on Boro/Palace double.

£2302 laid out across all bets.

If Palace win and Middlesbrough don't = -£187

If Palace don't win and Middlesbrough do = +£418

If Palace and Middlesbrough both win = +£5023.13

If Palace and Middlesbrough both fail to win = -£2302

I will be in attendance at Selhurst Park.

I remember only wanting to bet on Palace today and somehow this all happened. I am going to be feeling sick tomorrow night I hope Palace win at the very least, the £187 loss would be fine enough.

Huge value on the Palace win Tikay, hopefully peeps back me up on that at least.

MATCH FACTS
Head-to-head

• Middlesbrough picked up only their second win in 31 league matches against Nottingham Forest spanning 38 years, with a 2-1 triumph at the Riverside in their last meeting in February.

• Forest are bidding for a fourth successive home league win over the Teesside club, and have failed to gain at least a point in only one of their last 16 clashes with them at the City Ground.

• 'Boro have failed to score in six of their last nine trips to the east Midlands clubs, including the last three.

The last fact i think is a little trivial and probably coincidental but the first two can't be ignored. I didn't realise the trouble Middlesbrough were having with Forest for a long time now. I do hope though that winning 5 on the trot in the league would hopefully dispel history like this and reduce proceedings only to how well both teams have been playing recently. I then fancy Boro at the 2.5/1 as decent value. McDonald is on fire. I do know though that it only takes one Reid free kick to mess up any high flyers' plans at the City Ground. Along with, of course, your other threats and how devastating you can be when you turn it on.

All the responses about McCarthy's impact and how badly treated Jewell was is fair and obviously the effect of this appointment is probably going to be much greater than that of Holloway to Palace. However, don't overlook that Palace have been on fire and Ipswich's turn around has literally been one game old. Factor in also, how they were very lucky to even get a point after some terrible Birmingham finishing. I honestly think Palace will tear them apart tonight and that the market is showing odds of a little over evens now, when it should be closer to 1.5. It is the second best team (form wise) in the Championship at home against the second worst team (form wise), who are having to play away. I am not sure if Middlesbrough or Cardiff shared Palace's exact form and were at home against Ipswich in the same circumstances, that the price would be anywhere near evens.

Brighton haven't won in their last 6 games and are home tonight against Peterborough who have won 3 of their last 6 games and Brighton are 8/13 best price, with most around 4/7. I think this shows the value in the Palace tie. However, I assume it is the appointment of McCarthy that will make most of you assume the odds are correct and they may well be. I am pretty much a mug punter.

FWIW I don´t think you have value on either bet but the history Boro @ Forest is completely irrelevant, I´m not sure what relevance anyone thinks it could have, they are very different teams to those that contested previous Forest/Boro fixtures history between the clubs really doesn´t count for anything.

Fair enough. I hope by 20.45 tonight one of the games is already 2-0 up at least in my favour and go onto win. Don't want a sweat, but don't want devastation early doors as well!

[Karabiner]

Matt is SO gonna own us when he gets back, so we may as well make a little hay whilst we can. I mean, he can only hit me once.



 

If I were to tell you that he has been punting daily on horses for the last year would you believe me?

[EvilPie]

Horses? You told me they were just big dogs!!

[tikay]

Matt is SO gonna own us when he gets back, so we may as well make a little hay whilst we can. I mean, he can only hit me once.



 

If I were to tell you that he has been punting daily on horses for the last year would you believe me?

Of course I'd believe you!

He probably thinks he's backing great big greyhounds.

Psst - look at the hooves on this bugger.

Click to see full-size image.

[pokerfan]

Matt is SO gonna own us when he gets back, so we may as well make a little hay whilst we can. I mean, he can only hit me once.



 

If I were to tell you that he has been punting daily on horses for the last year would you believe me?

Of course I'd believe you!

He probably thinks he's backing great big greyhounds.

Psst - look at the hooves on this bugger.

Click to see full-size image.

I've seen that car, think it was Brighton. Workmates thought I was on the wind up 

[tikay]

It goes to all the Greyhound tracks, it's to promote Greyhound Racing generally.

Don't tell Matt though, he probably thinks it's a horse.

[tikay]

We discussed the value or otherwise of backing Ronaldo to score a few weeks ago, so this caught my eye in "The Game" on Monday.

RARE BLANK

In terms of the Spanish League & Champions League, Christian Ronaldo equalled his worst scoring drought for more than a year by failing to find the target against Real Zaragosa at the wekend. The length of the drought? One match

I was perusing the "Anytime Goalscorers" for Real Madrid's game with Dortmund tonight. He is best-priced 4/6! (3/1 to be first goalscorer).   

[tikay]

Arsenal 1-0 up, Man City 0-2 down.

[tikay]

Don't forget the Father Gascoigne RSQ reveal is on right now.

Leader after Round one? Hector!

[TightEnd]

How good are Dortmund? Wonderful to watch. This is a good cl as its v open

[bobby1]

Cmon punting gods, get Ant his double in plz.

gl fella.

[tikay]

Cmon punting gods, get Ant his double in plz.

gl fella.

It'd be awesome if he did!

[redsimon]

MATCH FACTS
Head-to-head

• Middlesbrough picked up only their second win in 31 league matches against Nottingham Forest spanning 38 years, with a 2-1 triumph at the Riverside in their last meeting in February.

• Forest are bidding for a fourth successive home league win over the Teesside club, and have failed to gain at least a point in only one of their last 16 clashes with them at the City Ground.

• 'Boro have failed to score in six of their last nine trips to the east Midlands clubs, including the last three.

[TightEnd]

Well done Ant. Top of the league


Got close on Ajax!