Tips for Tikay

[Waz1892]

Waz:

"....You've made me smile for the 2nd time!, First time when you mentioned my name on skypoker back in the day, pronouced it wrong (Woz not Waz) and you beasted me on live TV and said that it was my fault for spelling it the way i did!!  Waz1974....I do agree though, I forgive you easliy enough because you went on to say i played the hand you were reviewing well...."

Whoops!

We - all of us - are so precious with our names, & I get more PM's & e-Mails about mispronounced names than you could ever imagine.

I got a little complaint today, as it happens. It was nice, but the chap was obviously a little disappointed in me.

His screen-name was "BigWal1" or similar, but it came out on the in-studio graphics as "BigWoli", so I referred to him as "Big Wolly". Which was probably not very bright of me, to be fair.

Anyway, hope you enjoy the thread now.

 

[bobby1]

Word on the betfair forum is that everyone is piling into WBA.  Is this one of those times to swim against the tide on value grounds and lay WBA?

WBA were 1.8 this morning, went to 1.95 briefly late afternoon, & are back to around 1.8 now.

PS - I think Neville's "pen" is (careful not to run those 2 words together) probably a dubree, with which to help work the plasma whatsit.  

I'm calling BS Mr Kendall on the words dubree and watsit. Blatant 'I work for Sky insider knowledge' attempt  

That Neville sentence reminds me of a jockey when I was a lad called P Ennis, one day after I guess many years of suffering he started to appear on the racecards as P J Ennis. Tho fair play to the jockey M Bastard who went thru his entire life without resorting to changing his name unlike the 1930 winner of the Yorkshire Cup, The Bastard who became the far more polite The Buzzard when exported to Australia and became one of their most successful sires, which is an interesting turn of words to describe the way horses are consummated. Which leads me nicely on to the race that stops the nation in Australia tonight.

Do any of the horsey guys have a view on the chances of Maluckyday who I might throw a small ew bet at 14/1.(16 on BF)

[Ant040689]

Right i have lost the plot and put up £2302 across the Palace and Middlesbrough games tomorrow on both to win. I didn't even back optimal odds as i was using sites that already had money in. Just terrible punting tekkers but should be a decent sweat for a few peeps while having a look at the results tomoz.

I repeat that i didn't know quite what i was doing with this one and that you guys can take me apart on the application of the bets.

Before i tell you I am going to say why I am backing both teams. Palace at around evens is great value and I highly recommend the bet to you Tikay as a single. We have been unbeaten in 11 games with a strong argument to suggest we were good to win every single one of those. We were emphatic in our 2-0 beating of Blackburn who were 5th pre game and made them look like League 1 opposition apparently. Plus we squandered a penalty. Ipswich have a new manager in, yes, and they won their last game, but they beat a misfiring Birmingham who have been pretty woefal this season. Plus they missed three golden opportunities at the end to put the game to bed but were just lacking confidence. Ipswich's form has been terrible and are bottom of the table. I have the true value of this game rated at about 1.6 on the Palace win but we are at 1.96. What do I know though?

Middlesbrough are around 3.6 best price to beat Nottingham Forest away. They have won their last 6 straight and have been hugely dominant. Forrest got embarrassed by Millwall 4-1 on the weekend, while Boro smashed Charlton by the same scoreline. Form has Forest doing well with them beating Cardiff 3-1 at home recently, but I think that Middlesbrough on the form they are on could well get a win here and see the value of this bet better than the 3.6 available.

Palace I think has undoubted huge value and Middlesbrough has smaller value but value nonetheless.

Now to my betting.

£1000 @ 19/20 for the Palace win, £400 on the Boro win @ 23/10, lay bet on Ipswich with $207 liable effective 1/4 odds (made a mistake with the bet, meant to just back Palace), £400 @ 5/2 on Boro win and £371 @ 5.72/1 on Boro/Palace double.

£2302 laid out across all bets.

If Palace win and Middlesbrough don't = -£187

If Palace don't win and Middlesbrough do = +£418

If Palace and Middlesbrough both win = +£5023.13

If Palace and Middlesbrough both fail to win = -£2302

I will be in attendance at Selhurst Park.

I remember only wanting to bet on Palace today and somehow this all happened. I am going to be feeling sick tomorrow night I hope Palace win at the very least, the £187 loss would be fine enough.

Huge value on the Palace win Tikay, hopefully peeps back me up on that at least.

[aaron1867]

Again Ant, not really sure on this.

Palace are still Palace and I am not sure 19/20 is that much an amazing price in all honesty. I will say it again, people still think Palace are a mid table outfit at best, just with one really good player.

As for bet on Middlesbrough, I think this is nuts. I wouldn't put a bet of decent size on any away team in this league as the league is just anyone can beat anyone, imo. Forest are not a bad side, I think until they lost to Millwall, they was doing really well. Suicide with that bet imo.

Although, do really hope both win, especially Palace

[OverTheBorder]

I have a small interest question, maybe for Mere....how much has thread lost/won backing against Andy Murray? I seem to see negative Murray bets so often and not sure if we have profited from it.  I do kind of understand the logic being that British bookies can put any price on British players and people will still back it but still backing against a top 4 tennis player in such well considered markets doesnt ever strike me as value

[Ant040689]

Again Ant, not really sure on this.

Palace are still Palace and I am not sure 19/20 is that much an amazing price in all honesty. I will say it again, people still think Palace are a mid table outfit at best, just with one really good player.

As for bet on Middlesbrough, I think this is nuts. I wouldn't put a bet of decent size on any away team in this league as the league is just anyone can beat anyone, imo. Forest are not a bad side, I think until they lost to Millwall, they was doing really well. Suicide with that bet imo.

Although, do really hope both win, especially Palace

The mid table outfit assessment of us is ludicrous, but the odds makers agree with you, so who am I to argue, I will just bet.

The Middlesbrough bet is the punt here and I agree with your assessment. I just think Middlesbrough will have too much. A part of this bet is probably the annoyance i didn't back them against Charlton at 2/1 which was much the better value, so this could be the hangover from that.

Thanks for the well wishing, btw.

[aaron1867]

Again Ant, not really sure on this.

Palace are still Palace and I am not sure 19/20 is that much an amazing price in all honesty. I will say it again, people still think Palace are a mid table outfit at best, just with one really good player.

As for bet on Middlesbrough, I think this is nuts. I wouldn't put a bet of decent size on any away team in this league as the league is just anyone can beat anyone, imo. Forest are not a bad side, I think until they lost to Millwall, they was doing really well. Suicide with that bet imo.

Although, do really hope both win, especially Palace

The mid table outfit assessment of us is ludicrous, but the odds makers agree with you, so who am I to argue, I will just bet.

The Middlesbrough bet is the punt here and I agree with your assessment. I just think Middlesbrough will have too much. A part of this bet is probably the annoyance i didn't back them against Charlton at 2/1 which was much the better value, so this could be the hangover from that.

Thanks for the well wishing, btw.

Not arguing with you mate, hope you win both bets for sure.

I think with regards to my comments on Palace, you see that reading a lot of fans forums, they think the same, I use Football Forums and they seemed to think the same, but of course with how things are, you would be looking towards a Palace win. I actually might follow the bet, but still not sure whether it is value to be quite honest.

Again, probably would have swerved M'boro away to Charlton for a decent sized bet. I think the Forest/M'boro match does look to be a good game though, for sure.

I have a small interest question, maybe for Mere....how much has thread lost/won backing against Andy Murray? I seem to see negative Murray bets so often and not sure if we have profited from it.  I do kind of understand the logic being that British bookies can put any price on British players and people will still back it but still backing against a top 4 tennis player in such well considered markets doesnt ever strike me as value

I don't think I have seen much action on Murray to be honest in thread, but as you say I am sure Mere, can give you a detailed view.

But as pricing goes, if we are betting on our own sportsman to win an event, then we do generally get a poor price. Like look at betting with England to in a tournament, can be found at 8's,9's and 10's, then you go to other European places and the price is a lot bigger. I remeber being on Italy and Turkey during two seperate tournaments and odds was much bigger, they also have the opinion of the England fan, we are not very good

[Ant040689]

N1, ty for feedback Aaron. The Boro bet deffo has a more punting edge to it.

[OverTheBorder]

Again Ant, not really sure on this.

Palace are still Palace and I am not sure 19/20 is that much an amazing price in all honesty. I will say it again, people still think Palace are a mid table outfit at best, just with one really good player.

As for bet on Middlesbrough, I think this is nuts. I wouldn't put a bet of decent size on any away team in this league as the league is just anyone can beat anyone, imo. Forest are not a bad side, I think until they lost to Millwall, they was doing really well. Suicide with that bet imo.

Although, do really hope both win, especially Palace

The mid table outfit assessment of us is ludicrous, but the odds makers agree with you, so who am I to argue, I will just bet.

The Middlesbrough bet is the punt here and I agree with your assessment. I just think Middlesbrough will have too much. A part of this bet is probably the annoyance i didn't back them against Charlton at 2/1 which was much the better value, so this could be the hangover from that.

Thanks for the well wishing, btw.

Not arguing with you mate, hope you win both bets for sure.

I think with regards to my comments on Palace, you see that reading a lot of fans forums, they think the same, I use Football Forums and they seemed to think the same, but of course with how things are, you would be looking towards a Palace win. I actually might follow the bet, but still not sure whether it is value to be quite honest.

Again, probably would have swerved M'boro away to Charlton for a decent sized bet. I think the Forest/M'boro match does look to be a good game though, for sure.

I have a small interest question, maybe for Mere....how much has thread lost/won backing against Andy Murray? I seem to see negative Murray bets so often and not sure if we have profited from it.  I do kind of understand the logic being that British bookies can put any price on British players and people will still back it but still backing against a top 4 tennis player in such well considered markets doesnt ever strike me as value

I don't think I have seen much action on Murray to be honest in thread, but as you say I am sure Mere, can give you a detailed view.

But as pricing goes, if we are betting on our own sportsman to win an event, then we do generally get a poor price. Like look at betting with England to in a tournament, can be found at 8's,9's and 10's, then you go to other European places and the price is a lot bigger. I remeber being on Italy and Turkey during two seperate tournaments and odds was much bigger, they also have the opinion of the England fan, we are not very good

Thanks Aaron, just got bored and did a rough check, 3rd time we have unsuccessfully bet against him, probably other bets suggested and not taken.  We bet on him once (lay in US Open final on Novak) and he won.  I just struggle to see the science in it.  In a land where value is key. On the flip side I would back whatever Hector told me to cause he is golden but it still interests me in the logic.

Surely we either do it every time as a pricing rick or realise its pretty much a pin in a board of hoping we hit the game he doesnt perform.  Cause if he does he should win against any other than the top 3 (off clay)

[edgascoigne]

Tikay, hope this ok....bit of brief spam-mage regards the "Father Gascoigne Thinks" Quiz of which the reveal runs this evening at 8pm...

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=59365.0

[tikay]

Tikay, hope this ok....bit of brief spam-mage regards the "Father Gascoigne Thinks" Quiz of which the reveal runs this evening at 8pm...

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=59365.0

Of course it is OK Ed. Rather annoyingly, I forgot to make my Entry.

I'm pretty sure it will be a roaring success - what a great & original idea.

If I may be personal, where do you get your brains from? Was Mum very clever?

[Doobs]

Tikay, hope this ok....bit of brief spam-mage regards the "Father Gascoigne Thinks" Quiz of which the reveal runs this evening at 8pm...

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=59365.0

Of course it is OK Ed. Rather annoyingly, I forgot to make my Entry.

I'm pretty sure it will be a roaring success - what a great & original idea.

If I may be personal, where do you get your brains from? Was Mum very clever?

Entries were reopened until 4pm today.

[edgascoigne]

Tikay, hope this ok....bit of brief spam-mage regards the "Father Gascoigne Thinks" Quiz of which the reveal runs this evening at 8pm...

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=59365.0

Of course it is OK Ed. Rather annoyingly, I forgot to make my Entry.

I'm pretty sure it will be a roaring success - what a great & original idea.

If I may be personal, where do you get your brains from? Was Mum very clever?

Entries were reopened until 4pm today.

Yep, this. Come and get involved Teeks, and indeed all other T4TK'ers! Bit of a giggle and requires zero knowledge of Ian - a bit of an understanding of the reason certain questions have been asked goes a long way...

@Tikay - No brains here, I just talk a good game. Pretty sure I got that from my dad.

[DungBeetle]

"I have a small interest question, maybe for Mere....how much has thread lost/won backing against Andy Murray? I seem to see negative Murray bets so often and not sure if we have profited from it.  I do kind of understand the logic being that British bookies can put any price on British players and people will still back it but still backing against a top 4 tennis player in such well considered markets doesnt ever strike me as value"

I had £10k on David Ferrer to beat him at a shade under evens in Toronto 2006 when he had just come on the scene.  My thinking was that Ferrer the consumate grinder would expose any weaknesses in young Murray's technique over a prolonged examination.

Murray smashed him to pieces 6-2, 7-6.  Good times

[DungBeetle]

One for consideration for Tuesday.  Darius Henderson to score anytime at Watford for Millwall at 7/4 or better.   Darius used to play for us and is a really big mean centre forward who is good in the air and has eye for goal.

The Watford boys are improving, but we have had any number of disasters this year defending in the air.  Hoban is a real prospect but is very inexperienced, Hall is much needed in this game but can’t do it all by himself, and the full backs are ball players (Poodle and Casetti) who are relatively poor in the air for all their skill on the ball.

I expect Watford to win despite Millwall’s strong form, but I think Henderson will really cause a lot of problems, and I imagine at some point we are bound to mess up as we usually do and let him have a free header.

All - in support of this bet Fitz Hall is DOUBTFUL for tonight.  So it's all on Tommy Hoban to stop him. 
http://www.watfordobserver.co.uk/sport/watfordfc/watfordfcnews/10027792.Hall_is_doubtful_for_Millwall/?ref=rss