Tips for Tikay

[Dubai]

Love the idea, think it would work really well in certain markets- however over 2.5 is always going to be favoured in these spots, as people just hating backing or thinking the opposite

Would have overs 1/10 in the poll

[tikay]

Love the idea, think it would work really well in certain markets- however over 2.5 is always going to be favoured in these spots, as people just hating backing or thinking the opposite

Would have overs 1/10 in the poll

No takers!

I'm sure hector can refine it, bet by bet, & maybe find something more suitable if this one proves to be a dud.

Currently the "overs" are way out in front, & as I'm obdurate, not to say awkward, I shall go the other way.

[Tal]

I'd think the best wy to employ the Wisdom of Blonde would be to have a poll that says "how many goals will Man United score this weekend?" And another for Chelsea or whoever. Then we glean from that whatever statistics we like, depending on how the mean result correlates with the odds.

[hector62]

I am taking all the comments on board and will refine things. I do think that any future ones will have to be binary though. We are trying to utilise the decision of the masses. At present we are taking their vote from them and giving them something back- the current result. If people have to vote and then wait several days to get a result they will get bored very soon, not bother voting and it will die. It is a bit " Pavlovian " but necessary.

[doubleup]

I am taking all the comments on board and will refine things. I do think that any future ones will have to be binary though. We are trying to utilise the decision of the masses. At present we are taking their vote from them and giving them something back- the current result. If people have to vote and then wait several days to get a result they will get bored very soon, not bother voting and it will die. It is a bit " Pavlovian " but necessary.

sorry hector but there is absolutely no evidence that your approach will be profitable.  Its a fun idea but has no place in a thread with a profit-making ethos.

[tikay]

[tikay]

I am taking all the comments on board and will refine things. I do think that any future ones will have to be binary though. We are trying to utilise the decision of the masses. At present we are taking their vote from them and giving them something back- the current result. If people have to vote and then wait several days to get a result they will get bored very soon, not bother voting and it will die. It is a bit " Pavlovian " but necessary.

sorry hector but there is absolutely no evidence that your approach will be profitable.  Its a fun idea but has no place in a thread with a profit-making ethos.

I think the idea is that it will be a seperate thread, & it will not utilise Fred's Bankroll.

[Graham C]

I am taking all the comments on board and will refine things. I do think that any future ones will have to be binary though. We are trying to utilise the decision of the masses. At present we are taking their vote from them and giving them something back- the current result. If people have to vote and then wait several days to get a result they will get bored very soon, not bother voting and it will die. It is a bit " Pavlovian " but necessary.

sorry hector but there is absolutely no evidence that your approach will be profitable.  Its a fun idea but has no place in a thread with a profit-making ethos.

I think the idea is that it will be a seperate thread.

I'm pretty sure he said you'll be sticking £50 on whatever is the most popular

Isn't all it's going to show that people generally agree with the bookmakers? 

[TightEnd]

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil

Obama ahead by 0.5% in Florida with all votes in. Small enough to trigger recount.



AndrewT's marvellous bet is in abeyance,for now

[TL900]

Sacramento Kings -5.5 vs Detroit Pistons tonight 3am (PP,WH or BF are -5.5 alot of firms are -6)

Detroit currently 0-4 this season and have been blown out all but 1 game. Terrible on the road, played last night whereas the Kings didn't and had to go at the fast pace of the nuggets so there will definitely be some fatigue in those Piston legs.

Kings are 1-3 to start the season but have only played 1 home game which they won vs the Golden State Warriors in a tough morale boosting game. They should be feeling very good going into this game especially Demarcus Cousins who was awesome vs the warriors and will be the main attack point for the Kings tonight.

Cant see anything but the Kings cruising to an 8-10 point victory tonight

[Teacake]

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil

Obama ahead by 0.5% in Florida with all votes in. Small enough to trigger recount.



AndrewT's marvellous bet is in abeyance,for now

That was a fantastic piece of analysis it's a travesty he didn't get on.

[hector62]

I am taking all the comments on board and will refine things. I do think that any future ones will have to be binary though. We are trying to utilise the decision of the masses. At present we are taking their vote from them and giving them something back- the current result. If people have to vote and then wait several days to get a result they will get bored very soon, not bother voting and it will die. It is a bit " Pavlovian " but necessary.

sorry hector but there is absolutely no evidence that your approach will be profitable.  Its a fun idea but has no place in a thread with a profit-making ethos.

Thanks for the comment. If you could kindly link to the evidence that shows this will be non profitable and I will remove the poll.

This thread has several aims and I believe this idea meets some of them. So far 32 people have voted and I would bet that some of them have never put a tip up nor commented on others for fear of ridicule from " experts ". We are not going to put up this result as a huge tip for readers based on expert analysis. Everything is out in the open, it can be deemed an experiment. I do think that with more tinkering on the options that there is a chance this could be very interesting.

Now had you said that there was no place in this thread for some ridiculous made up story about Tikay watching a golf match, whilst taking a dump in the bushes, with Red Dog and Milli looking for a cuckoo then I would have agreed with you 100%.

[77dave]

Liverpool are away to Anzhi tomorrow in the Europa League

Liverpool squad (from): Jones, Wisdom, Carragher, Coates, Robinson, Shelvey, Henderson, Cole, Downing, Yesil, Assaidi, Gulacsi, Ward, Flanagan, Sama, Wilson, Coady, Suso, Morgan.

Those left at home
Steven Gerrard, Luis Suarez, Joe Allen, Nuri Sahin, Daniel Agger, Jose Reina, Glen Johnson, Raheem Sterling and Jose Enrique have not travelled as the Reds play Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on Sunday.

Anzhi are 4/6


Thoughts?

[doubleup]

Thanks for the comment. If you could kindly link to the evidence that shows this will be non profitable and I will remove the poll.

I don't need to.  There are obvious flaws in the approach that have been mentioned above.  Your "system" will almost always lead to the favourite being selected and you have not indicated how you will assess whether the odds offered on that favourite represent value.

So in summary, as you are almost always going to be backing favourites in an event that you pick, you might as well forget about the poll and just rename the thread "Hector's Harpoons"

[AndrewT]

Before you all weep at my poverty, I did subsequently work out that, as only Obama and Romney could win votes, a bet on Romney's total being between 190-209 was essentially the same as the one I recommended, so I'm not eating cold beans for tea.