Tips for Tikay

[TL900]

sighhh, we ran awful. 9 up at , 8 up at end of 3rd. Kings had a player ejected in the 4th and just generally tried to throw the game away and then we were up 4 with 10s to go and 2FT's and cousins only made 1, if he makes both pistons prob just give up and we get there. Pretty annoying, we def had the better side though.

Also one of the pistons players had their first triple double in his career so they definitely played better than expectation, urgh so annoying to lose this one, we def had a reallyyyy good side imo.

[Chompy]

21/10 Posh to beat Palace.

Any thoughts Chompy?

Looks like a bet to me.

Anti-Palace Ant-bait? Disgorger needed...

Any result is posssible tbh, we are competitive now but this doesn't feel like a good time to be playing Palace.

I'd be more hopeful if Zakuani plays to take care of Zaha but Fergie will probably stick with the same 11 that started at Brighton and I'll just be going and watching this time.

[Ant040689]

21/10 Posh to beat Palace.

Any thoughts Chompy?

Looks like a bet to me.

Anti-Palace Ant-bait? Disgorger needed...

Any result is posssible tbh, we are competitive now but this doesn't feel like a good time to be playing Palace.

I'd be more hopeful if Zakuani plays to take care of Zaha but Fergie will probably stick with the same 11 that started at Brighton and I'll just be going and watching this time.

Will be going too! Would be nice to see an entertaining game, rumours are we are bringing a 3000+ with us, which isn't bad.

[tikay]

Just back from the Celtic game via the pub obv. Unbelievable performance, as usual Tighty calls it right we were happy to let Barca have possession and exploit their weakness at set pieces. We took a bit of stick after the first game for being defensive but  if anyone thinks we can take the game to Barca they are kidding themselves they have destroyed far better teams than us. The defending was superbly organised and comparable with Inter and Chelsea against Barca in the last few years.

We will sell Wanyama for a ridiculous  amount of money, top European teams love his type and he's still only 21.

Forster was excellent again tonight and young Watt can be anything he wants to be.

That's 5 Celtic Barca games I've been to with a record of W2 L2 D1 including seeing us put them out of the UEFA Cup in the Nou Camp!

Apologies for the ramble but I'm still buzzing, the atmosphere at Celtic CL games is something else and that was undoubtably the best tonight 

the rendition of YNWA put Anfield to shame.

Awesome stuff

Definitely - it was incredibly moving, too. Hard for the team NOT to perform after that.

[tikay]

21/10 Posh to beat Palace.

Any thoughts Chompy?

Looks like a bet to me.

I was ready to get on, Keith, but His-Chompness said no......

[tikay]

Just back from the Celtic game via the pub obv. Unbelievable performance, as usual Tighty calls it right we were happy to let Barca have possession and exploit their weakness at set pieces. We took a bit of stick after the first game for being defensive but  if anyone thinks we can take the game to Barca they are kidding themselves they have destroyed far better teams than us. The defending was superbly organised and comparable with Inter and Chelsea against Barca in the last few years.

We will sell Wanyama for a ridiculous  amount of money, top European teams love his type and he's still only 21.

Forster was excellent again tonight and young Watt can be anything he wants to be.

That's 5 Celtic Barca games I've been to with a record of W2 L2 D1 including seeing us put them out of the UEFA Cup in the Nou Camp!

Apologies for the ramble but I'm still buzzing, the atmosphere at Celtic CL games is something else and that was undoubtably the best tonight 

Ramble away bud, you have every reason to be proud, it's been a while since ANY team beat Barca in the League stages of the CL, & you were arguably unlucky not to do better in the away leg.

In years to come, it will be seen as a really historic night, & you can tell the grandkids I was there

Priceless memory for you.

I had the choice of watching the Man U game, the Chelsea one (which looked pretty liovely) or yours, & I ended up glued to the Celtic game. Great stuff.

I have no idea how the CL works, but you currently sit clear 2nd in Group G, so presumably you may well reach the knockout stages?

Dreams are made of this.

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 8.00am, Thursday November 8th

PROFIT on Month = £600.00


Unsettled Bets  - £517.50



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=14

[tikay]

Daily Report as at 8.35am, Thursday November 8th

We lost £55 yesterday.

Only one bet completed, on Basketball, our Team won, but failed to beat the 5.5 point handicap. (-£55).

Betfair have yet to settle the Presidential Election "Electoral College" bet, though it looks a winner to me.

Chelsea, Man U & Celtic all won their CL games.

Click to see full-size image.

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[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

Well I thought the poll idea would attract mixed feelings. Disinterest, indifference, incredulity, fascination maybe. But animosity was not one that I would have guessed at. I always admit my mistakes and in my choice of market I did make one. I had it in my head that I had already seen the market for goals in this game and that it was 5/6 each of 2. Palpably it was not. Still as long as people were unaware of the fact before voting it may give us a meaningful answer. I am blaming my mistake on still being weak and feeble following my blood donation.

I have however thought of an even better way of polling the masses for the next one. I just hope that the first one wins now. I am though delighted with the number of votes cast, I had set my price at 20 and we are way past that already.

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

Well I thought the poll idea would attract mixed feelings. Disinterest, indifference, incredulity, fascination maybe. But animosity was not one that I would have guessed at. I always admit my mistakes and in my choice of market I did make one. I had it in my head that I had already seen the market for goals in this game and that it was 5/6 each of 2. Palpably it was not. Still as long as people were unaware of the fact before voting it may give us a meaningful answer. I am blaming my mistake on still being weak and feeble following my blood donation.

I have however thought of an even better way of polling the masses for the next one. I just hope that the first one wins now. I am though delighted with the number of votes cast, I had set my price at 20 and we are way past that already.

Don't worry. Better to have tried & failed, & all that, & blonde NEEDS new ideas, initiatives, & fresh stuff. Most of the feedback was constructive, too.

46 votes so far - FAR more than I'd expected.

Eventually, Fred will retire, or lose it's Bankroll, & that'll be that, so anyone who puts up fresh ideas, even if they fail, is fine by me.

Remember how Fred begun, too. Who'd have thunk it would have got me off my 10 year+ betting sabbatical, or that ther thread would be this popular.

OK, I gotta go, I need to catch an aeroplane. From Brighton Airport. To the Isle of Wight. True, or false?

[doubleup]

Before you all weep at my poverty, I did subsequently work out that, as only Obama and Romney could win votes, a bet on Romney's total being between 190-209 was essentially the same as the one I recommended, so I'm not eating cold beans for tea.

This seems to be still not quite locked up - Saturday is when they expect the result

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-florida-20121108,0,5169368.story

[The Camel]

21/10 Posh to beat Palace.

Any thoughts Chompy?

Looks like a bet to me.

Could you explain why you think this is a good bet please?

Think there's a very good chance Posh are under rated by the market now.

Recent improvement has not been accurately reflected in results, they played very well defensively against Brighton midweek. Although Brighton completely bossed possession, Posh didn't allow them to create virtually anything.

Would be a definite bet for me if I thought Palace were over rated by the market, but I'm not so sure they are yet.

100% certain Palace aren't a bet though.

[Ant040689]

21/10 Posh to beat Palace.

Any thoughts Chompy?

Looks like a bet to me.

Could you explain why you think this is a good bet please?

Think there's a very good chance Posh are under rated by the market now.

Recent improvement has not been accurately reflected in results, they played very well defensively against Brighton midweek. Although Brighton completely bossed possession, Posh didn't allow them to create virtually anything.

Would be a definite bet for me if I thought Palace were over rated by the market, but I'm not so sure they are yet.

100% certain Palace aren't a bet though.

I initially thought the same as Peterborough have won their last two home games emphatically against solid opposition in Derby and Huddersfield.

I did hear though that Brighton had 32 shots and were knocking on the door for a lot of the game to get the winner but just couldn't convert. You have this down to Peterborough's resolute defending, I instead would point you towards 7 games Brighton had without a win and think that was probably factoring higher in their misfiring rather than the defending but obviously it is a combination of both.

After the game too, Ferguson immediately reminded people about how well they had played at home in their last two and wanted a quick subject change away from assessing the match he had just seen, saying Brighton were relentless and Peterborough were giving the ball away too much.

Just that interview sort of tipped me towards backing Palace, not to mention we are unbeaten in 12 games winning 9 of them. Of our away day wins was beating Leicester away (taking their 100% home record) Bolton and Wolves. In our last two games we have scored 7 and conceded none. We're at 7/5 to win and if i think we get on top early its curtains for the oppo, but despite our great form our first 20 mins in games have been dire (during the Ipswich game they were the better team for the first 20, before we trounced them). We also have only conceded 2 in our last four games. The inclusion of Ward at RB and Parr at LB has coincided with this defensive record.

Just my opinion and I am going with it. Respect yours (grateful you are casting your opinion over the game) and am worried mine is conflicting with it but I am settling on that I am probably wrong. However, I am adamant in my ignorance, so I am sticking with it. I know I am guilty of not seeing value in the bets where even if what i say is true about both teams in a fixture and I may have good predicting capabilities, if you are not pairing it with favourable odds then it isn't worth your time. I just sort of punt on it anyway, not quite knowing fully what is value and what isn't.

I have the Charlton draw no bet at 21/20 and the Palace win at 7/5. £450 (got £195 of that on at a slightly lower price) on the double. Don't know why I am going so high.

Out of curiosity what is the lowest price that you would back Palace for the win as value?

[TightEnd]

I think there is an outstanding opportunity for value in the Europa League tonight

Athletico Bilbao v Olympique Lyonnais

Lyon are 3-1 in various spots

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/athl-bilbao-v-olympique-lyonnais/winner

I've had to research this one as I alighted on it from a value perspective rather than any great knowledge of either team


In their Europa League group

France Lyon    3    3    0    0    8    5    +3    9
Czech Republic Sparta Prague    3    2    0    1    7    4    +3    6
Israel Ironi Kiryat Shmona    3    0    1    3    5    8    −3    1
Spain Athletic Bilbao    3    0    1    2    3    6    −3    1

Bilbao lost in Lyon and Prague and drew to Ironi at home

Lyon are unbeaten

So why are Lyon 3-1?

I check the domestic records

Lyon are a point behind PSG at the top of Ligue 1 http://www.ligue1.com/club/olympique-lyonnais

Bilbao have won 3 of 10 in La Liga http://www.skysports.com/football/league/0,19540,11826,00.html

So why are Lyon 3-1?

Well Lyon need to win the group to avoid the big guns going forward. Although a draw might get them through tonight, a win moves them a long way to winning the group

http://www.sportinglife.com/football/live/match-commentary/278855/athletic-bilbao-v-lyon

I know Bilbao is a difficult place to go. I needed to look at their downturn in form this season after finishing Europa League and Copa Del Rey runners up last year

I alighted on this.

"Prior to the start of the 2012–13 season, Athletic went through a period of some turmoil. Having impressed many observers around the world with their play in the preceding campaign, all the top players (according to various media rumours) were now being examined by the top clubs in England, Italy and Germany who in some cases could offer higher wages and Champions League football, although qualification for this competition would obviously be the aim for Athletic as well. In particular, striker Fernando Llorente, whose contract was nearing its end, failed to agree a new deal due to his wage demands (allegedly far higher than the norm at the club, but less than some other top strikers in other leagues), and when his position became unstable, it emerged that fellow Spain international Javi Martinez would possibly also be wishing to leave. With the club's financial position relatively healthy and with few, if any, replacements available under their Basque signing policy, Athletic took a rigid stance on the matter, whereby no offers would be accepted by them and any players wishing to leave would have to meet their inflated contract buyout clause. Martinez did so, joining Bayern Munich before the transfer deadline after the player and the German club agreed a deal to finance the €40m release despite Athletic's refusal to co-operate. Llorente, however, failed to secure such a deal and remained an Athletic player at the close of the transfer window, in spite of the bad blood which had developed between him and the club management over the situation. Martinez and Llorente - arguably the most important players in the previous 5 seasons - had been forced to train apart from the other players and faced abuse from fans as they sought a move away, which did little to improve team harmony.

The situation was complicated further when Marcelo Bielsa had a major disagreement with the contractors working on improvements to the Lezama club training ground as he felt they were inadequate, overpriced and behind schedule, thereby undermining his pre-season preparations with the squad. The dispute deteriorated into a physical altercation with the site foreman, followed by Bielsa issuing a statement criticising the work - which the club hierarchy officially distanced themselves from. At one stage in the tense episode the Argentine coach appeared to have left his position, and although the matter was eventually resolved it was not the positive atmosphere the club desired as the start of the season approached. Experienced striker Aritz Aduriz returned (from Valencia CF for a third spell at Athletic, but former youth team forward Ismael López was the only other new signing. Along with the enforced sale of Javi Martinez, aging squad players Koikili, Igor Gabilondo and Aitor Ocio had departed at the start of the summer, and they were followed by winger David Lopez and defender Ustaritz; promising young players Jonas Ramalho and Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta seemed set to play a bigger role in their place.

With this backdrop of uncertainty, along with injuries to Aurtenetxte, Amorebieta, Ekiza, Herrera and Llorente, it was perhaps not surprising that Athletic began their season with some poor results. The possession football was not leading to enough goals scored without without the presence of Llorente, albeit Aduriz was proving a capable deputy, and the Bielsa tactic of using players regarded as midfielders in defence to boost the overall technique level of the team was seen to backfire somewhat as opponents created chances with alarming ease. In their first 8 competitive games (4 in La Liga and 4 in the Europa League preliminaries) Athletic scored 21 goals but conceded 18, however did manage to reach the Europa League groups leaving fans optimistic of another Autumn upturn in form."


So, not a happy ship

We have a French team in form against a Spanish team out of form, with dis-harmony leading to undeperformance

and what appears to be a value price

People might argue that all the above is known and factored into prices

In which case why are Lyon 3-1?


In the absence of counter-knowledge, recommend £30 Lyon at 3-1 for value.

[horseplayer]

I think there is an outstanding opportunity for value in the Europa League tonight

Athletico Bilbao v Olympique Lyonnais

Lyon are 3-1 in various spots

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/athl-bilbao-v-olympique-lyonnais/winner

I've had to research this one as I alighted on it from a value perspective rather than any great knowledge of either team


In their Europa League group

France Lyon    3    3    0    0    8    5    +3    9
Czech Republic Sparta Prague    3    2    0    1    7    4    +3    6
Israel Ironi Kiryat Shmona    3    0    1    3    5    8    −3    1
Spain Athletic Bilbao    3    0    1    2    3    6    −3    1

Bilbao lost in Lyon and Prague and drew to Ironi at home

Lyon are unbeaten

So why are Lyon 3-1?

I check the domestic records

Lyon are a point behind PSG at the top of Ligue 1 http://www.ligue1.com/club/olympique-lyonnais

Bilbao have won 3 of 10 in La Liga http://www.skysports.com/football/league/0,19540,11826,00.html

So why are Lyon 3-1?

Well Lyon need to win the group to avoid the big guns going forward. Although a draw might get them through tonight, a win moves them a long way to winning the group

http://www.sportinglife.com/football/live/match-commentary/278855/athletic-bilbao-v-lyon

I know Bilbao is a difficult place to go. I needed to look at their downturn in form this season after finishing Europa League and Copa Del Rey runners up last year

I alighted on this.

"Prior to the start of the 2012–13 season, Athletic went through a period of some turmoil. Having impressed many observers around the world with their play in the preceding campaign, all the top players (according to various media rumours) were now being examined by the top clubs in England, Italy and Germany who in some cases could offer higher wages and Champions League football, although qualification for this competition would obviously be the aim for Athletic as well. In particular, striker Fernando Llorente, whose contract was nearing its end, failed to agree a new deal due to his wage demands (allegedly far higher than the norm at the club, but less than some other top strikers in other leagues), and when his position became unstable, it emerged that fellow Spain international Javi Martinez would possibly also be wishing to leave. With the club's financial position relatively healthy and with few, if any, replacements available under their Basque signing policy, Athletic took a rigid stance on the matter, whereby no offers would be accepted by them and any players wishing to leave would have to meet their inflated contract buyout clause. Martinez did so, joining Bayern Munich before the transfer deadline after the player and the German club agreed a deal to finance the €40m release despite Athletic's refusal to co-operate. Llorente, however, failed to secure such a deal and remained an Athletic player at the close of the transfer window, in spite of the bad blood which had developed between him and the club management over the situation. Martinez and Llorente - arguably the most important players in the previous 5 seasons - had been forced to train apart from the other players and faced abuse from fans as they sought a move away, which did little to improve team harmony.

The situation was complicated further when Marcelo Bielsa had a major disagreement with the contractors working on improvements to the Lezama club training ground as he felt they were inadequate, overpriced and behind schedule, thereby undermining his pre-season preparations with the squad. The dispute deteriorated into a physical altercation with the site foreman, followed by Bielsa issuing a statement criticising the work - which the club hierarchy officially distanced themselves from. At one stage in the tense episode the Argentine coach appeared to have left his position, and although the matter was eventually resolved it was not the positive atmosphere the club desired as the start of the season approached. Experienced striker Aritz Aduriz returned (from Valencia CF for a third spell at Athletic, but former youth team forward Ismael López was the only other new signing. Along with the enforced sale of Javi Martinez, aging squad players Koikili, Igor Gabilondo and Aitor Ocio had departed at the start of the summer, and they were followed by winger David Lopez and defender Ustaritz; promising young players Jonas Ramalho and Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta seemed set to play a bigger role in their place.

With this backdrop of uncertainty, along with injuries to Aurtenetxte, Amorebieta, Ekiza, Herrera and Llorente, it was perhaps not surprising that Athletic began their season with some poor results. The possession football was not leading to enough goals scored without without the presence of Llorente, albeit Aduriz was proving a capable deputy, and the Bielsa tactic of using players regarded as midfielders in defence to boost the overall technique level of the team was seen to backfire somewhat as opponents created chances with alarming ease. In their first 8 competitive games (4 in La Liga and 4 in the Europa League preliminaries) Athletic scored 21 goals but conceded 18, however did manage to reach the Europa League groups leaving fans optimistic of another Autumn upturn in form."


So, not a happy ship

We have a French team in form against a Spanish team out of form, with dis-harmony leading to undeperformance

and what appears to be a value price

People might argue that all the above is known and factored into prices

In which case why are Lyon 3-1?


In the absence of counter-knowledge, recommend £30 Lyon at 3-1 for value.

i would argue it is factored in

would also argue that Bilbao are playing much much better in the last few weeks i watch most of there games as i love the ethos they stand for and biesla is a genius

They had a good win last weekend , had two goals disallowed week before in a 1-2 home defeat (both were onside) and led valencia away with ten men for 80 minutes until two goals in the last two minutes saw a 2-3 defeat


Four weeks ago i would have been happy to oppose them not so much now