Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 8.45am, Sunday November 11th

PROFIT on Month = £883.50


Unsettled Bets  - £617.50



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=14

[tikay]

Daily Report as at 10.15am, Sunday November 11th

We registered a profit of £148 yesterday.

6 bets completed, 4 losers, 2 winners.

Rugby Union

Our England - Fiji total points went down. It was fine until dome numbskull Posted "going well after 20 minutes", cue the floodgates opening, & we lost heavily in the end. -£20

MMA

We had Franklin to win in the 4th or 5th, but we soon learned oir fate, in what the MMA Forums are describing as "The Knockout of the Year".

At the tender age of 40, the former middleweight champion barreled a right hook directly into Franklin's skull midway through the first round of UFC on FUEL 6's main event, crumbling "Ace" to the canvas unconscious and unresponsive

Can't argue with that really. -£20.

College Football

We had Oregon to win the first qtr by 7.5. The bet basis - really rather clever - was that Oregon crush the first qtr, always. Here are the Qtr scores.......

1st - Oregon win 14-7

2nd - Oregon win 10-3

3rd - Oregon win 14-7

4th - Oregon win 21-0

Pretty comprehensive crushing, but they got it back to front! -£25.

Scottish FA Cup

Bobby popped up at the last minute & gave us an unusual footie bet, Arbroath with a 1 goal handicap, so we had to win by 2. We went 3-0, then Inverurie Locos - what a grand name! - pulled one bsck for the mandatory sweat, but we held. +£45.

Phesophology

Had to use that word, I love it. Even money I spelt it wrong.

AndrewT put up what was, arguably, one of THE best & cleverest bets Fred has ever seen. How about this for out of the box thinking?.....

OK - I've had a butchers (and an hour playing around with an interactive map of the US).

Having a bet at 1.55 is clearly no fun - something a bit more puntworthy is called for.

We think Obama is going to win and probably lean towards a victory which may not be on a knifeedge. To win, he needs 270 electoral college votes.

Now, there is a peculiarity with the way the odds are (only Betfair and Ladbrokes are offering odds on this - Laddies have a guy called Matthew who does their politics stuff). Here's the current prices (Ladbrokes, then Betfair - BF only offer one group price on Obama getting fewer than 310 votes)

Obama 270-289 - 7/2
Obama 290-309 - 4/1
Obama 310-329 - 8/1 (5.3)
Obama 330-349 - 7/2 (6.6)
Obama 350-369 - 25/1 (32)

Those seem strange prices on Ladbrokes for 310-329 and 330-349.

Obama to win fewer votes is shorter so, as you would expect, the Betfair prices get longer as Obama gets more votes, as they are less likely, right? Just as if Man Utd are shortest price to win by 1 goal in a game, the price for them to win by 3 will be bigger than by 2, and 4 bigger than to win by 3 and so on. So why is that 7/2 so short and 8/1 so long?

The reason is Florida. That is a state with a lot of people, so it has 29 EC votes. If Obama has, say 303 EC votes (perfectly achievable), then wins Florida, that moves him to 332, completely bypassing the 310-329 band. If Obama has done well enough to get above 300, then there's a good chance he's done well enough in Florida to win that (they're related contingencies) so will zoom past 310-329. Matthew at Ladbrokes knows this, which is why he's priced it short. Betfair layers are just using their normal model for these type of spread bets, so they've missed it.

Therefore, recommend £30 on Obama to win 330-349 electoral college votes at 6.6 on Betfair.

Darts.

Bazza stuck up a corker - 5-0 - & though Fred was awol, it mattered not, as a few got on.


Elsewhere, we have two short term in-running bets.


Tennis

Del Potro is still hanging in, though he plays Djokovic today. We are the right side of value now, too.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/mens-tour/atp-world-tour-finals/winner

Proper Cricket

In the Australia - South Africa Test, we had a very good day, though we may rue that missing day. South Africa closed at 450-9 (another Almla ton, & 147 from Kallis) before reducing Australia to 111-3. We are far from dead yet, though the Draw remains a huge favourite, but we get at least another day's sweat.

Premier League Football

We have £50 @ Evens on Chelsea to beat Liverpool today. They are now best priced 10/11.

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[tikay]

P S E P H O L O G Y

I can't even say the damn word, never mind spell it.....

[TightEnd]

Bit of aftertiming, but William Hill put up 4/5 Entwhistle to resign by the end of the year at 9am yesterday morning

I got 75% through a max bet recommend when my lappie froze and I had to rush out to watch my lad smash seven shades of hell out of 15 year olds on a rugby field

9pm last night he went....


Sigh.

I thought it was a 1/10 shot given his honourable nature and the complete horlicks the Newsnight team made of the McAlpine naming.

Sigh

[tikay]

Bit of aftertiming, but William Hill put up 4/5 Entwhistle to resign by the end of the year at 9am yesterday morning

I got 75% through a max bet recommend when my lappie froze and I had to rush out to watch my lad smash seven shades of hell out of 15 year olds on a rugby field

9pm last night he went....


Sigh.

I thought it was a 1/10 shot given his honourable nature and the complete horlicks the Newsnight team made of the McAlpine naming.

Sigh

Ouch, unlucky Rich. Would have been a quick job, too, it was all over within 12 hours.

More for my Diary than here, I suppose, but I nearly threw up when I saw the Sun's headlines about Mr Entwhistle this morning, & I'm still fumming.

"Gormless George goes"

"Bye Bye Chump"

Coming from "The Sun" of all people, about a very decent man who had the misfortune to inherit someone else's problem, & now a 30 year career is down the pan is bad enough, but then to see that sort of tabloid stuff must be sickening for the poor chap.

How long will society tolerate that utterly disgraceful sort of journalism? 

"The Sun" accuses the BBC of poor standards? Hmm.

[TightEnd]

Totally agree

Lots of "glass houses" in Print newspaper land, I am afraid


Meanwhile in the cricket, SA got 450 and rushed to get them

Australia were 40-3 and it was all going to plan. Of course we can't green at 4am, but the South Africans went favourite at that point.

After that Clarke and Cowan dug in as the new ball got a bit older and the pitch, which had freshened up in the damp weather, flattened out

A couple of quick wickets required early in Day 4 to encourage the South Africans they can get a sniff of victory

[Tal]

Yes I only found out this morning. Would have been a ripsnorter if we could have snaffled it.

Just watching the Sunday Supplement. Oliver Holt delivered a putdown for the ages. The others are discussing Mario Balotelli's attitude. Holt pipes up:

"I think the mistake you're making is that you're waiting for him to mature"

Brilliant.

[Tal]

Entwistle was head of television at the time of the Newsnight incident, but I agree nonetheless. I suspect he would have survived were it not for the McAlpine situation.

[bookiebasher]

I have been looking at the championship (football ) for a couple of years now and in particular the both teams to score
market. So far this season there has been an average of 3.07 goals p. match ( div 1 2.5 , div 2 2.64 ).

As far as both teams scoring... week 1 BTS 4 not 8 , then BTS 8 not 4, BTS 8 not 4, BTS 9 not 3, BTS 8 not 4 , BTS 9
not 3. That is an average of 64% but if you take out the 1st week where you could argue teams were more interested
in not losing than winning , then it jumps to 70%.

With nearly all the teams being so closely matched the distribution of possession , shots etc will also be similar.

Last season there were 2 or 3 teams I would not include. For example Forest , who didnt score in 19 games and Hull
who seemed a very defensive outfit. Both have new managers and look like they are playing a more expansive game
this year.

You could use a scattergun approach but I like the look of 3 matches , Derby , Sheff W and Leeds . Both teams to score 9-2 on the betfred bonus coupon. Recommend £20. One day the lots gonna come in  

So close again !!!.......one day.......

[Bazzaboy]

Hamilton v Bates under 2.5 180s at 11/10 with . Price is ool and Bates is in woeful form so we shouldn't see more than 6 or 7 legs. Neither are big 180 hitters either. Should be odds on and is everywhere else.

[horseplayer]

BET SUGGESTION

MALLORCA +4 ON CORNER HANDICAP BET365 5/6 V BARCELONA

most other firms are +2 bet365 are +4 they are widely recognised to have the best complier around for these type of bets (or one of them) however this looks at worst generous

some factual things


Only A.Madrid & Valencia have been to Mallorca in the last 24 & covered the -4 handicap.

Barca last 24 aways 230 corners average 9.58 with a average  +2.42. Mallorca homes seen 283 corners with average +0.88

over the last 5 seasons between the sides Mallorca are leading the aggregate corner count 34-27 (against barca)

suggest £40

[Nico29]

BET SUGGESTION

MALLORCA +4 ON CORNER HANDICAP BET365 5/6 V BARCELONA

most other firms are +2 bet365 are +4 they are widely recognised to have the best complier around for these type of bets (or one of them) however this looks at worst generous

some factual things


Only A.Madrid & Valencia have been to Mallorca in the last 24 & covered the -4 handicap.

Barca last 24 aways 230 corners average 9.58 with a average  +2.42. Mallorca homes seen 283 corners with average +0.88

over the last 5 seasons between the sides Mallorca are leading the aggregate corner count 34-27 (against barca)

suggest £40

only small diff but 10/11 avail same bet stan james

[class]

Just throwing it out there, but is it now time to start laying arsenal at home as well as liverpool? The arse are nowhere near the force they used to be.

[Tal]

Just throwing it out there, but is it now time to start laying arsenal at home as well as liverpool? The arse are nowhere near the force they used to be.

 

[scotty2hatty]

Nothing you can do about the MMA bet, anyone can KO anyone with the small gloves.