Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Totally happy to be outvoted

Just an old trading mentality of mine from Investment days...

Lock in the profit, and when the price and value gives a real one way skew to the risk, reverse engines.....


i.e we don't have to just protect, we can give the chance of making more too.........

[tikay]

I strongly recomend getting with Spurs against Liverpool this Wednesday night in The Premier League.

Spurs played some great football when beating West Ham yesterday and looked well organised at the back now Dawson has been re instated. Live wire Defoe looked sharp up front and the midfield seemed really strong and up for it ,closing down West Ham quickly .Liverpool on the other hand looked average when held to a 0-0 at Swansea, where they played the left side midfielder Downing (replaced by Joe Cole) at left back and the left back Enrique in midfield as a consequence Suarez got little or no service up front. Although Liverpool had a goal disallowed It appears Brendan Rodgers is still experimenting with his formation and has few options on the bench.

With momentum and home support behind them I think Spurs will be well up for this  and represent great value especially when you can back Spurs at  4 -5 (Draw no bet) with Bet Victor or Sky...Because we have the saftey net of draw =money back ....I think £100 is the bet

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/tottenham-v-liverpool/draw-no-bet

Thanks Fraser, good to see you here again.

For £100, the bet would need to be VERY good, to be honest, we tend to bet smaller except in special cases.

Liverpool are an enduring enigma, half way between nowhere & nothing, catching them right is an art-form, but.....

This season, away from home, I think they have been half-respectful.  Their PL away record this season, in date order is.....


L - D - W - D - D - D - D

The opening loss was against surprise package WBA, & the away draws include Everton & Chelsea.

I do note you went for DNB, which sort of fits with their record.

Personally, I think that price looks about right. If that were true, I doubt we'd bet.

Do you think that price is wrong?

[Tal]

With 2 tests left on what will likely be flat(ter) pitches, Pujara isn't a 1/12 shot, so shouldn't we be investing what we can on a wrong price?

[tikay]

[TightEnd]

With 2 tests left on what will likely be flat(ter) pitches, Pujara isn't a 1/12 shot, so shouldn't we be investing what we can on a wrong price?

what price do you think he is?

what price is he if he fails in the next test and a n other scores a 100?

[edgascoigne]

The approach to the greening up or otherwise of the Pujara bet should be determined by Fred's answers to the following questions...

1. What would a -£20 result mean to the Fred?
2. What would a +£140 result mean to the Fred?
3. What would a cast iron, 'write it in the column now', +£124 result mean to the Fred?
4. Do we feel that the market is sufficiently liquid to start hedging efficiently and passively? Ie. not smashing the lay side but rather putting up money ourselves?

Dependent on answers to the above we can work out what to do. Quite a useful example actually to begin considering utility in the world of punting.

[FUN4FRASER]

I strongly recomend getting with Spurs against Liverpool this Wednesday night in The Premier League.

Spurs played some great football when beating West Ham yesterday and looked well organised at the back now Dawson has been re instated. Live wire Defoe looked sharp up front and the midfield seemed really strong and up for it ,closing down West Ham quickly .Liverpool on the other hand looked average when held to a 0-0 at Swansea, where they played the left side midfielder Downing (replaced by Joe Cole) at left back and the left back Enrique in midfield as a consequence Suarez got little or no service up front. Although Liverpool had a goal disallowed It appears Brendan Rodgers is still experimenting with his formation and has few options on the bench.

With momentum and home support behind them I think Spurs will be well up for this  and represent great value especially when you can back Spurs at  4 -5 (Draw no bet) with Bet Victor or Sky...Because we have the saftey net of draw =money back ....I think £100 is the bet

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/tottenham-v-liverpool/draw-no-bet

Thanks Fraser, good to see you here again.

For £100, the bet would need to be VERY good, to be honest, we tend to bet smaller except in special cases.

Liverpool are an enduring enigma, half way between nowhere & nothing, catching them right is an art-form, but.....

This season, away from home, I think they have been half-respectful.  Their PL away record this season, in date order is.....


L - D - W - D - D - D - D

The opening loss was against surprise package WBA, & the away draws include Everton & Chelsea.

I do note you went for DNB, which sort of fits with their record.

Hi Tony...just want to contribute when I see a stand out bet

Liverpool have only won once away from home in PL against lowly Norwich when Suarez got a hat trick.

One fof the reasons I m recomending this bet is because of how Liverpool set their stall out away from home (defensive)

Pretty sure there will be money for Spurs and with 4 -5 being stand out at present I feel the need to get on sooner rather than later.

Good Luck if you follow me .

[hector62]

[tikay]

The approach to the greening up or otherwise of the Pujara bet should be determined by Fred's answers to the following questions...

1. What would a -£20 result mean to the Fred?
2. What would a +£140 result mean to the Fred?
3. What would a cast iron, 'write it in the column now', +£124 result mean to the Fred?
4. Do we feel that the market is sufficiently liquid to start hedging efficiently and passively? Ie. not smashing the lay side but rather putting up money ourselves?

Dependent on answers to the above we can work out what to do. Quite a useful example actually to begin considering utility in the world of punting.

Thanks Ed.


1) Of no consequence, it is a daily occurence, though not usually when so far ahead.

2) Like.

3) Like even more. My old Chairman taught me to "interpret" Balance Sheets, where turnover is vanity, profit is sanity, but CASH IS KING. Loss-making businesses with good cash flow can survive, profitable outfits with bad cash flow go under every day. I LOVE turning stuff - anything - into cash.

4) If I am honest, I don't really understand that. 

[hector62]

Is this 3 mile horse of the Camels running today ? What is it's name please.

[tikay]

Is this 3 mile horse of the Camels running today ? What is it's name please.

No idea!

Glad you reminded me, I'll bump a Post shortly......

[tikay]

After the reminder from Keith earlier, thought I would post this.

Been waiting for this mare to be stepped up to 3m for quite some time. The race that sticks in the mind was over 2.4 at Southwell with the race at her mercy, was chopped off two out. She then regrouped and made ground hand over fist to almost catch a very well thought of horse of Jonjo's, Its a Gimme. She then beat another well thought of horse at Leicester staying on strongly again, giving all the signs of being a thorough stayer. Last year didn't quite go according to plan, but still finished with a respectable 3rd to Simonsig at Aintree, before looking OTT at Punchestown. This year started at Wetherby over, to my mind a trip too short now, however she traveled like the winner for much of the race, but looked like she needed it, and one of today's opposition, Alasi beat her.
She has excellent form right handed 2/4 and operates well on the ground, and to me looks an excellent each way bet to nothing now she looks to step up in trip.
Recommend £10 ew  Baby Shine 2.05 Kempton

Ahh - Adzy has Edited it to add the gee-gees name now.

I have no idea where or when Camel mentioned this. Last I heard from Camel he was eating some yellow bellies.

[edgascoigne]

The approach to the greening up or otherwise of the Pujara bet should be determined by Fred's answers to the following questions...

1. What would a -£20 result mean to the Fred?
2. What would a +£140 result mean to the Fred?
3. What would a cast iron, 'write it in the column now', +£124 result mean to the Fred?
4. Do we feel that the market is sufficiently liquid to start hedging efficiently and passively? Ie. not smashing the lay side but rather putting up money ourselves?

Dependent on answers to the above we can work out what to do. Quite a useful example actually to begin considering utility in the world of punting.

Thanks Ed.


1) Of no consequence, it is a daily occurence, though not usually when so far ahead.

2) Like.

3) Like even more. My old Chairman taught me to "interpret" Balance Sheets, where turnover is vanity, profit is sanity, but CASH IS KING. Loss-making businesses with good cash flow can survive, profitable outfits with bad cash flow go under every day. I LOVE turning stuff - anything - into cash.

4) If I am honest, I don't really understand that. 

Essentially your answers for questions 1-3 show that you believe the marginal benefit you would derive from the potential extra +£16 (through not hedging out and 'letting it ride') < an assured positive position equal to roughly 90% of your maximum win.

This is perfectly normal. If I proposed a game of Heads or Tails with a £10 buy-in, the rule being that you had to call it correctly 5 times in a row to win the jackpot of £350, two things would have happened:

1. You have put yourself in a +ev position. The implied odds of the game are 31/1, whilst the payout of the game is 34/1.
2. You have decided to risk £10 knowing that almost 97% of the time you will see no return.

In short, you have risked capital because you believe it to have a positive financial expectation, even if this is unlikely to be realised in the short term.


Imagine you have called the first four coin tosses correctly. The last toss will determine whether you are -£10 or +£340.

The banker rings up and offers you £150 now to bugger off.

WWYD?

Most people would take it. Whilst one is 'mathematically' incorrect to do so (in this example probabilities are known as opposed to in the Pujara bet I concede) many in fact should take the £150 because of the utility securing said £150 provides for them. To understand this further, put an extra couple of zeros on the game and each stage therein.

It is my belief that the utility Fred will secure from greening out > the small amount of financial EV sacrificed in doing so.

Therefore you should green up.


***

The next necessity is doing so efficiently....

Many people will have been in the situation where they have copped the first 4 or 5 results of an acca, and decide to lock in some profit. What most probably fail to do however is ensure this is done in the most efficient manner.

Where the winnings results have finished at 1650 and the final leg kicks off at 1715 there is a time pressure that pushes this, in your instance, barring arrival to the market of knowledge hitherto unknown (the injury is worse than believed, for example), time is on your side, as the Stones may say.

If you are to hedge therefore you should do so 'passively'. That is to say rather than taking the prices that are on the exchange currently - which will be to > than 100% on the back side and < 100% on the lay side (as people attempt to nick the value either side of the 'true' (actually current equilibrium) price), you should put up offers ahead of the current 'bidders'.

So for example if the current best offer was 1.1 to back, I would do the following....

£20 @ 1.16
£40 @ 1.14
£60 @ 1.12

The total liability of these is £16 meaning your green on Pujara is reduced to £124. However, you take £120 (less comm) if he gets chinned.

Putting money up like this also ensures that you give 'as little away as possible' (once you have decided to hedge) as you match smaller amounts at the bigger prices and larger amounts at the shorter ones.




Clear as mud?!

[tikay]

The Adzy/Camel horse (Baby Shine, EW)......



http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/kempton/14:05/winner

Is this a "dirty" EW thingie?

[tikay]

Thanks Ed.

I almost understood every word of that.