Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Bristol C play at Sheff Wed tomorrow

Sheff Wed have 1 clean sheat in 20 games

Bristol C have no clean sheets in 20 games

Two poor sides, though Bristol C do score goals recently. Combined negative goal difference this year is -27


Both teams to score has been a complete bonanza this season in the Championship, as we have discussed on here

I am thinking that BTTS at 8/13 for this game might be a genuine 1/2 shot

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/sheffield-wednesday-v-bristol-city/both-teams-to-score




In League One I continue to oppose a poor Carlisle side sliding towards the bottom 4 and threatening our Walsall slide

Tomorrow they host Sheff U, who concede few goals away, only 7 in 10 games and are needing a result after a loss last league game took them out of the top two

Carlisle have lost 6 at home, conceding 25 goals in the 10 home games

Sheff U are 13/10 in two spots and to my mind are odds on at Carlisle

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/carlisle-v-sheffield-utd/winner

 

If we look at the Sheffield Wednesday match from the other side, it looks quite different.  Sheffield Wednesday 0 seems a popular score this season.  I can see the average opposition is normally better, but it still makes me nervous of backing at 8/13.  Looks a better idea to go the coupon route.

[RickBFA]

Bristol C play at Sheff Wed tomorrow

Sheff Wed have 1 clean sheat in 20 games

Bristol C have no clean sheets in 20 games

Two poor sides, though Bristol C do score goals recently. Combined negative goal difference this year is -27


Both teams to score has been a complete bonanza this season in the Championship, as we have discussed on here

I am thinking that BTTS at 8/13 for this game might be a genuine 1/2 shot

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/sheffield-wednesday-v-bristol-city/both-teams-to-score




In League One I continue to oppose a poor Carlisle side sliding towards the bottom 4 and threatening our Walsall slide

Tomorrow they host Sheff U, who concede few goals away, only 7 in 10 games and are needing a result after a loss last league game took them out of the top two

Carlisle have lost 6 at home, conceding 25 goals in the 10 home games

Sheff U are 13/10 in two spots and to my mind are odds on at Carlisle

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/carlisle-v-sheffield-utd/winner

 

Tighty,

I got on Sheff Utd at 13/10 yesterday, looks a good bet to me.

[rfgqqabc]

BTTS
Wigan - Qpr 8/11
Crystal Palace - Blackpool 8/13
Sheff Wed - Bristol City 8/13
Fleetwood - Southend 8/11
Northampton - Cheltenham 8/13
Rochdale - Exeter 4/6
Yeovil - Notts County 4/6

Get 4/5 per on Betfred Goals Galore BONUS coupon.

Get 50/1 with Fred for all 7, 35/1 best price elsewhere using oddschecker multiples thing. Perm it however you want with whatever stakes.

Credit to bookiebasher as well if it goes on

[Honeybadger]

BTTS
Wigan - Qpr 8/11
Crystal Palace - Blackpool 8/13
Sheff Wed - Bristol City 8/13
Fleetwood - Southend 8/11
Northampton - Cheltenham 8/13
Rochdale - Exeter 4/6
Yeovil - Notts County 4/6

Get 4/5 per on Betfred Goals Galore BONUS coupon.

Get 50/1 with Fred for all 7, 35/1 best price elsewhere using oddschecker multiples thing. Perm it however you want with whatever stakes.

Credit to bookiebasher as well if it goes on

I've put those into the oddschecker bet basket thing and it doesn't come up with anything for Betfred. It says Stan James are best price at 35.49. Am I doing it wrong?

[TightEnd]

You need to go onto Betfred and go to the Goals Galore Bonus Coupon

Gives you 9/2 for a treble on any of the featured games, 4/5 per game


 

[Honeybadger]

Ok I've done that... I've just put a stake into all the boxes: accumulator, trebles, four-folds, five-folds, six-folds.

Is that the right way to do it, and is this a good bet? It sure adds up quickly with all those trebles!!

[Doobs]

Ok I've done that... I've just put a stake into all the boxes: accumulator, trebles, four-folds, five-folds, six-folds.

Is that the right way to do it, and is this a good bet? It sure adds up quickly with all those trebles!!

WAIT

[Doobs]

Ok I've done that... I've just put a stake into all the boxes: accumulator, trebles, four-folds, five-folds, six-folds.

Is that the right way to do it, and is this a good bet? It sure adds up quickly with all those trebles!!

WAIT

Firstly, betvictor are offering 29/20 BTTS fails on the Crystal Palace vs Blackpool match.

This is significantly out of line.  Assuming it isn't a palpable error, you are getting close to 6/4 on what is a best price 13/10 elsewhere.  It looks too close to the right price to be a palp though?

Secondly, the original post is ignoring the overround.

I calculated the overround for each match and adjusted the best prices accordingly (ignoring the 29/20 rick above and assuming best price was 13/10) and got 47/1 rather than 35/1.

So 50/1 is still value, just not as much as people think and not nearly as good as just backing the 29/20 chance above.

BUT, I have assumed that there is no bias in the overround.  I am not entirely convinced on this, as I assume the natural tendency is to punt the BTTS.  If I was a bookie I would reflect this tendency in my odds setting.

If the above holds it is likely there is no value in the 7 fold at all.

[Honeybadger]

Ok I've done that... I've just put a stake into all the boxes: accumulator, trebles, four-folds, five-folds, six-folds.

Is that the right way to do it, and is this a good bet? It sure adds up quickly with all those trebles!!

WAIT

TOO LATE!!

Only joking. Sort of

I only had a fun sweat bet of £1 on everything... it still adds up to £99 though, but that just means I had 99 cheeky fun bets, right?

Glad I didn't put on bigger bets given your further analysis of the over-round.

[Doobs]

Ok I've done that... I've just put a stake into all the boxes: accumulator, trebles, four-folds, five-folds, six-folds.

Is that the right way to do it, and is this a good bet? It sure adds up quickly with all those trebles!!

WAIT

TOO LATE!!

Only joking. Sort of

I only had a fun sweat bet of £1 on everything... it still adds up to £99 though, but that just means I had 99 cheeky fun bets, right?

Glad I didn't put on bigger bets given your further analysis of the over-round.

Yeh that is about right, you have backed something that should be around 50/1 at 50/1. 

I have a feeling of inevitability about this bet coming in now though.  After England scoring their first drop goal in the last 12 months and yesterday's 147, am thinking I should be lumping on myself.

[rfgqqabc]

Ok I've done that... I've just put a stake into all the boxes: accumulator, trebles, four-folds, five-folds, six-folds.

Is that the right way to do it, and is this a good bet? It sure adds up quickly with all those trebles!!

WAIT

Firstly, betvictor are offering 29/20 BTTS fails on the Crystal Palace vs Blackpool match.

This is significantly out of line.  Assuming it isn't a palpable error, you are getting close to 6/4 on what is a best price 13/10 elsewhere.  It looks too close to the right price to be a palp though?

Secondly, the original post is ignoring the overround.

I calculated the overround for each match and adjusted the best prices accordingly (ignoring the 29/20 rick above and assuming best price was 13/10) and got 47/1 rather than 35/1.

So 50/1 is still value, just not as much as people think and not nearly as good as just backing the 29/20 chance above.

BUT, I have assumed that there is no bias in the overround.  I am not entirely convinced on this, as I assume the natural tendency is to punt the BTTS.  If I was a bookie I would reflect this tendency in my odds setting.

If the above holds it is likely there is no value in the 7 fold at all.

Could you explain overround more clearly, a little unsure as to what you mean? Think your saying they are offering markets of 107% so even though its 8/11 and your getting 4/5 its probably only break even anyway? Would that be correct?

I've found BTTS to be profitable, and i know others have, specifically with the Betfred coupon, I've never touched another coupon. Really interested to say what Redarmi says on the matter, tried a few things he gave me to look at but its been impossible to do well with everything else in my life. Free time in a week though!

[DungBeetle]

Carter   

"I've nothing against carter but the amount of luck he's getting is scandalous. He doesn't deserve to be winning this match, far from it. "

Eurosport

[Honeybadger]

I have a feeling of inevitability about this bet coming in now though.  After England scoring their first drop goal in the last 12 months and yesterday's 147, am thinking I should be lumping on myself.

You can't go around saying things like that! Now I've been forced to place an extra £15 on the 7 match accumulator. Just in case, you understand

[Doobs]

Ok I've done that... I've just put a stake into all the boxes: accumulator, trebles, four-folds, five-folds, six-folds.

Is that the right way to do it, and is this a good bet? It sure adds up quickly with all those trebles!!

WAIT

Firstly, betvictor are offering 29/20 BTTS fails on the Crystal Palace vs Blackpool match.

This is significantly out of line.  Assuming it isn't a palpable error, you are getting close to 6/4 on what is a best price 13/10 elsewhere.  It looks too close to the right price to be a palp though?

Secondly, the original post is ignoring the overround.

I calculated the overround for each match and adjusted the best prices accordingly (ignoring the 29/20 rick above and assuming best price was 13/10) and got 47/1 rather than 35/1.

So 50/1 is still value, just not as much as people think and not nearly as good as just backing the 29/20 chance above.

BUT, I have assumed that there is no bias in the overround.  I am not entirely convinced on this, as I assume the natural tendency is to punt the BTTS.  If I was a bookie I would reflect this tendency in my odds setting.

If the above holds it is likely there is no value in the 7 fold at all.

Could you explain overround more clearly, a little unsure as to what you mean? Think your saying they are offering markets of 107% so even though its 8/11 and your getting 4/5 its probably only break even anyway? Would that be correct?

I've found BTTS to be profitable, and i know others have, specifically with the Betfred coupon, I've never touched another coupon. Really interested to say what Redarmi says on the matter, tried a few things he gave me to look at but its been impossible to do well with everything else in my life. Free time in a week though!

Whatever you assumed to calculate the 35/1 was using the bookies odds was assuming that 4/6 was the correct price.  But for example, if the best price of the BTTS to fail is 4/5 then there is an overound of just over 5%.  4/6 is equivalent to 60% chance of winning, but if we assume that overround is the same proportion of each price then the real price should be something like 57% (60/1.05).

When I did this calculation for all 7 prices and multiplied them together I no longer got 36/1, but got 47/1 instead.  

You may well be winning by following this system, but if you have, it isn't for the reason you explained here.

[bobby1]

Carter   

"I've nothing against carter but the amount of luck he's getting is scandalous. He doesn't deserve to be winning this match, far from it. "

Eurosport

I almost posted how well Bingham ran against him yesterday and Carter still beat him but Ali ran like a dream in that session so it evened out pretty quickly I guess.

fingers crossed he does so again tonight.