Tips for Tikay

[rfgqqabc]

'Both Ryan Shawcross and Geoff Cameron in the Stoke defence are suspended for this game after being booked against Liverpoo'l apart from that there really isn't much I can see. Saints have had a couple of decent results but are still awful away from home. Nigel Adkins says they are up for it, but I'm sure he would say that before any game. I am on Stoke myself and I think 21/20 is a bet for Fred imo.

Thanks MilliGen,

That would help explain it, yes.

Must be said, Stoke were very impressive in that 3-1 win, so organised, & such energy. But wiser counsell than us, especially the bookies, know that too.

I do think it may be a different kettle of fish at 21/20. It was never a value bet at 5/6 or 4/5 though, or not in my opinion.

Markets rated Southampton for a while hasn't it?

[BigAdz]

A day later and it appears the Flemenstar team have made a sensible decision and opted for the Queen Mother as a target for Chelts. Has added some much needed spice to that race as Sprinter Sacre had made it a non event.

Plenty of time to mull over it has made me most annoyed at Ruby in suggesting TB should go for the Stayers Hurdle though. How the hell can you make that suggestion when you have beaten 2 of the top 3 in the betting and won going away with a further distance to cover in the Gold Cup, and also have related form to the current favourite where you were beaten 3 lengths giving six pounds?

I know why, because you are a greedy **** and want decent chances in both races, and sod the owner and their wishes, by publically suggesting he would have a better chance in the race where you now dont have a decent ride, thus putting the owners up against the wall.

Yes, I have a financial interest, but its bad form in my book. Rant Over!

[Karabiner]

A day later and it appears the Flemenstar team have made a sensible decision and opted for the Queen Mother as a target for Chelts. Has added some much needed spice to that race as Sprinter Sacre had made it a non event.

Plenty of time to mull over it has made me most annoyed at Ruby in suggesting TB should go for the Stayers Hurdle though. How the hell can you make that suggestion when you have beaten 2 of the top 3 in the betting and won going away with a further distance to cover in the Gold Cup, and also have related form to the current favourite where you were beaten 3 lengths giving six pounds?

I know why, because you are a greedy **** and want decent chances in both races, and sod the owner and their wishes, by publically suggesting he would have a better chance in the race where you now dont have a decent ride, thus putting the owners up against the wall.

Yes, I have a financial interest, but its bad form in my book. Rant Over!

When Graham Wylie was interviewed live on ATR shortly after the race he said that Nicholls had told him that they definitely had to go for the GC after that performance.

It's unusual to find such a difference of opinion in the camp.

[horseplayer]

even though i am massive fan of tidal bay it is hard to argue against rubys point in essence

the horse would have a better chance of winning in the stayers hurdle. The field assuming big bucks does not come back is full of non stayers, horses very unlikely to run in it and horses that are just not good enough

[hector62]

Any thoughts on Exeter V Bath tomorrow, Exeter not lost at home this season and Bath never beaten by Exeter.

I like Exeter to win but can't back them at that price. Maybe some value in going low on points as it is wet and horrible down here. I can see a score of 22-9 ish.

[rfgqqabc]

I think the BTTS goals galore coupon looks like some fun today. I've got;

   Hull - Leeds      
   Burnley - Leicester      
   Charlton - Derby      
   Nottm Forest - Crystal Palace      
   Brighton - Watford      
   Afc Wimbledon - Oxford      
   Burton - Southend
   Shrewsbury v Brentford   

As a decent 8 way acc. £5 Banzai with Betfred Bonus coupon

Then add; Villa/Wigan, Fulham/Swansea Reading/West Ham MK Dons/Cov Dagenham/Port Vale Plymouth/Wycombe for the £2 14 fold.

I'm going to do 15 fold - any early kickoffs as a backup too.

As an aside I really like Man U/West Brom (80/1) and West Brom/Man U (28/1). Tentatively recommending £10 on each pending elder review.

Also for future reference Both teams to score was evens in this game a few days ago, cracking price.

Edit: Had a wrong fixture in for first 2 mins.

[BigAdz]

even though i am massive fan of tidal bay it is hard to argue against rubys point in essence

the horse would have a better chance of winning in the stayers hurdle. The field assuming big bucks does not come back is full of non stayers, horses very unlikely to run in it and horses that are just not good enough

Gold Cup or World Hurdle on your CV, especially when it will be your last chance in all probibility?!

Lets remember his last hurdle race he only beat Crack Away Jack, who hardly franked the form since.......If he was mine I know which windmill I would be tilting at.

With all the money Wylie has chucked at the game, has he ever had a GC contender, whereas he has 3 World Hurdles on his mantelpiece.

[horseplayer]

i am talking from rubys view

the only way he WINS a gold cup if is the ground is an utter utter bog probably a 14-1 chance for march

[kukushkin88]

On the Stoke bet I think 5/6-4/5 was definitely not a bet but the market has slightly overreacted to the team news and there probably is a small case for a bet at odds against but it's nothing outstanding. I'd be swerving it for basically the same reason we don't bet on the PL often, I don't see where our edge is.

[tikay]

On the Stoke bet I think 5/6-4/5 was definitely not a bet but the market has slightly overreacted to the team news and there probably is a small case for a bet at odds against but it's nothing outstanding. I'd be swerving it for basically the same reason we don't bet on the PL often, I don't see where our edge is.

You explain my thoughts more succinctly than I can.

We just do not have an edge in these Markets, imo.

If we keep backing stuff that is correctly priced, then it is a mathematical certainty that we will lose over time, because few of us have the judgement to beat the bookies margin in this particular market, because we start with a (say) 10% handicap. At least, that is my understanding of what we have learned in this thread. Pre my betting sabbatical, I would deffo have lumped on this! I think, as we say in ppoker, we can find a better spot for our money.

Hope Stoke win though, for Fraser, & all those who took his advice.

[redarmi]

No view on Stoke although not sure I would be in a massive rush to back them at this price.  One bet I do really like today is Villa @2.84 or so at home to Wigan.  It is just too big a reaction to the two recent thumpings that Villa have had.  At the end of the day they are still above Wigan in the table and even if we assume the two teams are equally good or even Wigan slightly better Villa shouldn't be bigger than about 2.30.  As Tal mentioned last week Lambert has a habit of getting them back up from bad results.  I just cannot see how Wigan can be faves in this game.

[Tal]

Stat: spurs have scored in every away league game this season.

Useful for future BTS bets

[tikay]

No view on Stoke although not sure I would be in a massive rush to back them at this price.  One bet I do really like today is Villa @2.84 or so at home to Wigan.  It is just too big a reaction to the two recent thumpings that Villa have had.  At the end of the day they are still above Wigan in the table and even if we assume the two teams are equally good or even Wigan slightly better Villa shouldn't be bigger than about 2.30.  As Tal mentioned last week Lambert has a habit of getting them back up from bad results.  I just cannot see how Wigan can be faves in this game.

Just seen this, & it kicks off shortly.

We can get 15/8 (2.88) with Bet Victor.

I have had £20 for myself at that price, & if you think it is worth a Fred bet, I will transfer the bet across to Fred, but it has to be before 3pm, in fairness to the spready integrity.

[tikay]

A day later and it appears the Flemenstar team have made a sensible decision and opted for the Queen Mother as a target for Chelts. Has added some much needed spice to that race as Sprinter Sacre had made it a non event.

Plenty of time to mull over it has made me most annoyed at Ruby in suggesting TB should go for the Stayers Hurdle though. How the hell can you make that suggestion when you have beaten 2 of the top 3 in the betting and won going away with a further distance to cover in the Gold Cup, and also have related form to the current favourite where you were beaten 3 lengths giving six pounds?

I know why, because you are a greedy **** and want decent chances in both races, and sod the owner and their wishes, by publically suggesting he would have a better chance in the race where you now dont have a decent ride, thus putting the owners up against the wall.

Yes, I have a financial interest, but its bad form in my book. Rant Over!

Hence my original question to you as to a possible self-interest in his reply.

The jockey, of course, is as well-placed as any to judge the merits of a horse. However, if I employed a jockey & he made those comments in public, without seeking my prior permission, effectively putting me in a delicate spot........I would not employ him.

It seems a most improper use of the Owner/Jockey relationship. He just has to answer "well you will have to ask Mr Owner/Mr Trainer".

[Tal]

Incredible ride today by AP on Colour Squadron in the 1.35 at Newbury. Horse clattered into the first and, in doing so, dislodged the saddle. McCoy had a circuit to regain 10 lengths on the three rivals, whilst trying to right the saddle in the mud, wind and rain.

He jumped the last in comfortable second, half a length behind the leader and couldn't quite catch Paddy Brennan on Module. However, it was a photo finish as to what crossed the line for second place: the horse or the jockey.

One to watch back if anyone has a link.