Tips for Tikay

[Chompy]

Tommy Rowe's chances of scoring pretty much ended when fatty Tomlin decided to get sent off. Again.

[tikay]

Tommy Rowe's chances of scoring pretty much ended when fatty Tomlin decided to get sent off. Again.

Yeah, we were so unlucky, only 6 goals in the game.

[BigAdz]

If Fred feels like I do, it was a car crash....do we have anything left running?

[tikay]

Huge heavyweight title fight taking place tonight at UFC 155 between JDS and Velasquez but that's not where the focus of my recommendation for the card lies. I've focused my attention on the co-main event between Tim Boetsch (16-4) and Constantinos Philippou (11-2) in the middleweight division. Boetsch has established himself in the top 5 or 6 in the division since dropping down a weight class and this was meant to be a title eliminator against Weidman until Weidman pulled out injured - in stepped his campmate Philippou who has the opportunity to pop himself into the title picture with a win here.

The recommendation is for Tim Boetsch to win on points. The bookmakers have priced this as a pick 'em with favouritism a nick or two towards either man depending on which site you visit and I think Boetsch will be able to grind out the decision. On first glance Boestch only has 4 of 16 career wins by decision but a lot of the stats are a little skewed of the top fighters as they outclass their early career opponents - he has won 4 straight with 3 of those by decision. To me he isn't really a big finisher, especially when facing the upper echelon of fighters. Seven of Philippou's career fight have ended up in the hands of the judges and identically to Boetsch has 4 wins in a row, 3 by decision.

A decision looks on the cards and I'm strongly of the belief that it'll be Boetsch who gets his hands raised. Boestch is still being underrated by everyone - media, fans and bookmakers alike as his non-flashy style isn't exactly the most enjoyable and thus his price looks a little inflated. He defeated Lombard last time out by decision who showed in his last fight how much of a killer he is. He can grind Philippou against the cage and point score. Philippou has good takedown defence but even the odd takedown and prove favourable in the judges' eyes.

Boetsch is best priced 35/19 on Betfair and as short as 7/5 elsewhere.

When deciding if this fight was priced up correctly I looked at another similarly priced fight on the card in the shape of Wineland vs. Pickett. These two are more reknowned finishers than either Boetsch or Philippou. Pickett with 17 of 22 wins by stoppage and Wineland with 16 stoppages of 19 wins. In comparison, Pickett is a similar price to Boetsch to get the decision victory which perhaps suggests the bookies might not be taking everything into consideration when pricing this one up.

Recommend £20 on Tim Boetsch to win by decision against Philippou @ 35/19 with Betfair.

Lovely stuff Scotty, thank you.

I can't C & P the Betslip at present, am on the ippy, but we have £20 @ 2.96, Betfair, Boetsch to beat Philippou by "Decision".

I believe the fight takes place in Vegas tomorrow morning, 3am our time.

ON

[tikay]

If Fred feels like I do, it was a car crash....do we have anything left running?

Umm.......let me get back to you on that, I need to go check something.


(As it happens, we did very little today, so we managed to swerve most of the losers).

[kukushkin88]

If Fred feels like I do, it was a car crash....do we have anything left running?

[tikay]

Managed to find this photo of Fred's resident bookie, "bookiebasher", aka "Lucky Jim", at 4.50 this afternoon.

[Tal]

6/4 villa looks like market hysteria to me. I'm not convinced if you put Suarez in that side they'd look much different to Liverpool do now.

They're truly awful now but I'd still be surprised to see them go down. A lot of teams get found out in the last 10 games.

[TL900]

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/pdc-world-championship/wes-newton-v-james-wade/total-180s

U15.5 180s Blue Square looks good to go just purely looking at the market. I dont know too much about Wes Newton, but Wade is very happy to switch very quickly.

Opinions? Suggest £25 @ 4/5

[tikay]

The Betslip for the UFC155 bet is below.




Placed (matched) Order by Matched Date  Back (Bet For) Odds Stake Profit
Boetsch v Philippou
Boetsch by Dec / Tech Dec    2.96 £20.00EW   £39.20

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/pdc-world-championship/wes-newton-v-james-wade/total-180s

U15.5 180s Blue Square looks good to go just purely looking at the market. I dont know too much about Wes Newton, but Wade is very happy to switch very quickly.

Opinions? Suggest £25 @ 4/5

Thanks Tom.

I'm not really feeling that, & may keep our powder dry, as it looks like a really awkward day for punting today, & so far, we have kept the losses to a sensible level.

Let's see what the Darts Big Hitters (Bazza, Teacake, Snowy, Camel etc) say.

PS - Dubai is currently AWOL

[horseplayer]

watford very very good tonight

[Tal]

Sheppy Singh is on 606 (radio 5live) now.

He is one on his own that man.

[horseplayer]

Sheppy Singh is on 606 (radio 5live) now.

He is one on his own that man.

you cant argue with a 100% record

[Tal]

Officially, no one can defend.