Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

hope sean gets it

but not me guv

[kukushkin88]

I really like the overs in the Baltimore at Cincy game with the line @41. Decent conditions with little wind albeit cold, coldness is rarely as important as you'd think points wise. New offensive co-ordinator at Baltimore and they'll want to continue to play expansively to try things out in preparation for the play offs.

Realistically these teams know that they will be seeded 4th and 6th and I see them both going easy on starters. The QB's will almost certainly stay in until the end with the play offs next week to stay in synch and against possibly weakened defenses there might be plenty of points on offer. The down side is sometimes in this type of game both teams just kind of play it out and wait for the play-offs but divisional rivals and good reason to think Baltimore will be going pretty hard offensively, I think the line is a little low here.

Recommned £44 over 41 points at 10/11 in the Baltimore @ Cincy game points with various.

[tikay]

Thanks Kuku, we will get on that shortly.

If anyone has any NFL recommends for tonight, please note I am working tonight (boo, no darts railiing for me this evening) & so I will be offline from around 6pm until just after midnight, & so........  

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

I really like the overs in the Baltimore at Cincy game with the line @41. Decent conditions with little wind albeit cold, coldness is rarely as important as you'd think points wise. New offensive co-ordinator at Baltimore and they'll want to continue to play expansively to try things out in preparation for the play offs.

Realistically these teams know that they will be seeded 4th and 6th and I see them both going easy on starters. The QB's will almost certainly stay in until the end with the play offs next week to stay in synch and against possibly weakened defenses there might be plenty of points on offer. The down side is sometimes in this type of game both teams just kind of play it out and wait for the play-offs but divisional rivals and good reason to think Baltimore will be going pretty hard offensively, I think the line is a little low here.

Recommned £44 over 41 points at 10/11 in the Baltimore @ Cincy game points with various.

Thanks.

We have £44 @ 10/11 with BetFred, OVER 41 points, Baltimore @ Cincy.

ON

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Total Points
 Over 41 10/11 
Total stake £ 44.00
Estimated return £ 84.00

Full stake £ 44.00
Full estimated return £ 84.00

[ripple11]

Not a darts watcher, but invested a small lump thanks to bazza & fred's enthusiasm for MVG.  tyty & gl

+1 what a ride this is!

 66/1 ticket nitty e/w for me 

[tikay]

Not a darts watcher, but invested a small lump thanks to bazza & fred's enthusiasm for MVG.  tyty & gl

+1 what a ride this is!

 66/1 ticket nitty e/w for me 

Nice one Nick. If he survives tonight you have got a nice bit to come whatever the result of the final.

[Ant040689]

For Tuesday, Palace to beat Wolves at home at evens seems a steal.

They have had their worst two performances in their last two games, as said by their manager "the two worst performances of the season have been the two last ones. It can't get any worse". Not a promising statement from a manager. Karl Henry too has recently denounced the team as being 'rubbish'. In their last away game they beat Blackpool 2-1 and if not for a stupendous display from their keeper they probably should have lost.

Palace on the other hand have been in pretty good form. We drew our last game to Forest in the dying minutes after playing some good football, some Forest fans on here have even said we were one of the best sides to grace their pitch this season. The loss to Cardiff, could easily have been a win if we finished two up before half time which we deserved but we crumbled. And for the previous three draws, 2 of them we were in winning positions but were unlucky for one reason or another and the 0-0 to Hull at their ground was a solid result considering they are second.

I just think this game is set up for a trouncing, as long as we can keep 11 players on the field, we should hammer Wolves and I would price this up more like 1.8 in Palace's favour. Definitely not the right call here by the bookmakers who have looked at the form sheet and have priced it up probably solely on that.

Would suggest whatever is half your max bet on this. Oddly enough a lot of bookmakers have gone with 1.8-1.9 and Hills is the current standout and I think that won't last on there too much longer to be frank.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/crystal-palace-v-wolverhampton/winner

[Snowball]

I am still scratching my head wondering why I haven't got a ticket on Mad Mikey when I was nudging away at fred to get on him at 50s, i suppose I kept thinking I had missed the price tho I am on Barney from 18s and down and I still think he's a good price at 4/1.
If it's a MvG v RvB final then Barney is fav imo, remember he beat him in the GSOD final last month and has a 9-3 hth over him.

[Chompy]

Obv Ant puts up Palace for every game they play but I'm with him on this occasion. Wolfs are superbad and evens is a more-than-fair price.

[bobby1]

Is there, or should there be, a green out strategy?

Such that rather than having a result of -£10 or +£500 the thread backs the final opponent (assuming MVG makes it) to win £100/£150/£200 (as you see fit)


and turn a -10/+500 book into for example +100/+400?

Ha, the question on everyone's lips, that we are all scared to ask.......

For the Fred bet, the decision sits with Bazzaboy. Whatever he says, we will do, he owns the bet.

We would not do anything until the Final imo, as we only have £10 invested.

If Bazza decides to man it out, that is what Fred will do. In truth, though, if he does, I may have a saver off-thread. To me, it makes no sense not to.

I'm not sure why trading positions is seen as such a bad thing, surely taking a big price on something that is value and then playing some of it back at the right price is a job well done isn't it?

I've converted some of my place equity into cash by laying MVG at 1.26 in the semi, I think he will win ( made him about 1.30 myself) but am happy to have got to this stage. I can lock in a nice win of roughly 50% of the place returns should he lose tonight at the expense of 300 quid of potential place return money should he win tonight. So instead of having a nothing or xxx return I have limited the difference to a good win even if he loses but still going to be a decent amount better off if he wins. I am cashing in some of my place bet chips but still playing for the rest with the bonus of still having 90% of the win bet left.

There is no way I would have been having the potential place returns amount on him to win tonight's match which is what is happening if I let it run. So we have played well and are now taking steps to make sure we get a return for the good spot we have put ourselves in, Isn't that just a different kind of ICM poker strategy?

[Ant040689]

Obv Ant puts up Palace for every game they play but I'm with him on this occasion. Wolfs are superbad and evens is a more-than-fair price.

Think you will find I have calmed down, but yes at any opportunity I am in there.

Think I am only ever going to put up Palace bets, as that is all I know, but doing so now as selectively as I find possible.

[Tal]

Question for NFL literati:

Adrian Peterson needs 208 rushing yards to break the NFL single season record.

The Vikes host a Green Bay Packers team who have locked up the division and, unless I'm missing something, don't really have anything to play for today. The Vikings can - if I'm not mistaken - secure a wildcard berth if they can get a W.

The line for "All Day" do his best Forrest Gump impression this evening is variously set at 122.5 and 125.5. Are the Vikings going to be giving him the ball more than normal? Will he be up against a second string DL? Will a first choice DL be eager not to get injured?

Could betting O55.5 receiving yards for James Jones be a better idea if there could be more formations to stop the run and more space to take on the GB Secondary? 10/11 with BetFred and Victor.

Or are all the markets about right, 200 yards is asking too much and I should mind my own business?

[Karabiner]

I decided to insure slightly by laying MVG @ 1.26 tonight as suggested by bobby1.

It just means that for a pony I retain ~98% of my equity and should the unthinkable happen I have £74 with which to drown my sorrows.

[kukushkin88]

Question for NFL literati:

Adrian Peterson needs 208 rushing yards to break the NFL single season record.

The Vikes host a Green Bay Packers team who have locked up the division and, unless I'm missing something, don't really have anything to play for today. The Vikings can - if I'm not mistaken - secure a wildcard berth if they can get a W.

The line for "All Day" do his best Forrest Gump impression this evening is variously set at 122.5 and 125.5. Are the Vikings going to be giving him the ball more than normal? Will he be up against a second string DL? Will a first choice DL be eager not to get injured?

Could betting O55.5 receiving yards for James Jones be a better idea if there could be more formations to stop the run and more space to take on the GB Secondary? 10/11 with BetFred and Victor.

Or are all the markets about right, 200 yards is asking too much and I should mind my own business?

Massive game for Green Bay, the number 2 seed is on the line.

[kukushkin88]

Question for NFL literati:

Adrian Peterson needs 208 rushing yards to break the NFL single season record.

The Vikes host a Green Bay Packers team who have locked up the division and, unless I'm missing something, don't really have anything to play for today. The Vikings can - if I'm not mistaken - secure a wildcard berth if they can get a W.

The line for "All Day" do his best Forrest Gump impression this evening is variously set at 122.5 and 125.5. Are the Vikings going to be giving him the ball more than normal? Will he be up against a second string DL? Will a first choice DL be eager not to get injured?

Could betting O55.5 receiving yards for James Jones be a better idea if there could be more formations to stop the run and more space to take on the GB Secondary? 10/11 with BetFred and Victor.

Or are all the markets about right, 200 yards is asking too much and I should mind my own business?

Massive game for Green Bay, the number 2 seed is on the line.

I think the line is about right but if I had to play I'd be on the AP overs.