Tips for Tikay

[Tonji]

So, we're fully into film awards season, with the BAFTA noms today and Oscars tomorrow.

Wit the BAFTASs Lincoln is the fav for Best Film - mostly odds on but Ladbrokes go 11/8, which seems quite the rick. However, I think it's the Laddies price which is more right - it's surely a huge black mark against a film to win the top gong when its director (and film royalty such as Spielberg at that) doesn't get nominated, so I'm looking to oppose Lincoln in this market.

Opportunity here as the disparity in opinion on Lincoln means best prices with the four bookies offering odds is a 95% book.

The problem we have is that it's quite an uninspiring list of films.

Zero Dark Thirty/Argo - USA! USA! Team America stuff. Add in question marks about ZDT being a CIA propaganda film and Argo not really being a big enough film (not seen it but by all accounts it's a good little film but doesn't shout 'award winner') and I'm opposing these.
Life of Pi - ZOMG COMPUTER TIGER. Its cod spirituality and less than stellar critical response here should mean it won't win.

Which leaves us with Les Miserables. It is a British film, the musical owes its success to being a hit in London (the original French version was a flop) and it has scale (big sets and lots of extras). Hugh Jackman is popular and well-liked here, Anne Hathaway got skinny and cut her hair for her role and it has a sprinkling of British names in the cast. It ticks my boxes.

Therefore recommend £25 on Les Mis to win Best Film at the BAFTAs at 4/1 (Hills)

Thanks Andrew.

After some initial confusion, we are on, for the BAFTA's.

I'm not so keen on this art crap, but as the first ever Fred bet was on some film bollox or other as I recall, I guess we'd best try & celebrate & do another. One per year is plenty.

We have £25 @ 4/1, Wiliam Hill, "Les Miserables" to win BAFTA "Best Picture".

ON

 10 Feb 2013 - BAFTAs 2013 - Best Film - Best Film

Tip ItLes Miserables @ 4/1

Stake : £25.00
Estimated Returns : £125.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000242/F

Also on.

Have also had a bit of Ang Lee best director @ 9/2

good luck.

[tikay]

On the snooker bet I think Murphy looks no better than the right price tbo, if I had a free bet then it would be Selby at 7/1, if he beats Bingo he plays the winner of Williams v Stevens and there could be some kind of let down for the winner of that match as they are good mates and hate playing each other and hate knocking each other out even more.

The good thing about Selby is his form for the last 12+ months can be ignored as he wasn't fit and you know he is a tough as teak match player when fit in the bigger events as he showed in York the other week but it's wide open really.

Thanks Phil.

My gut reaction, with no real reason really, is exactly that, Murphy seems to be priced somewhere near the right price.

Can you find me a 6/4 shot advertised @ 10/1 please?

[tikay]

Crikey, all the Arty sorts are here today, Tal, Tonji, MANTIS, Chomps, & Booder.

[AndrewT]

Can see the logic in Les Mis for the Bafta, as it has been so successful over here as a musical for years. We Brits also like Russell Crowe and Ali G/Borat (but not Bruno or that Dick Tater fella).

Stand by my Jessica Chastain for Best Actress in the Oscars tho. That girl will be a star.

Jessica Chastain is an interesting one. She was the front runner, but there has been a big swell of support for Silver Linings Playbook recently, which has propelled Jennifer Lawrence to odds-on (and got Bradley Cooper a nomination for the Baftas).

I'd certainly support Chastain for the Oscars, but for the Baftas I have a sneaky feeling for Emmanuelle Riva for Amour. She wouldn't get a look in at the Oscars but I can maybe see a little mini banzai for the Baftas. The film did very well in the end of year polls and the subject will resonate with a high proportion of the Bafta voting crowd.

Best price I can see is 14s at Ladbrokes and I've had a cheeky score.

[BigAdz]

I think Nick Scholfield had the same instructions that Paul Carberry had on Saturday"ride it like a non trier", only Nick took him for his word!!

[Tonji]

Swerving away from Art! I may have a recommendation for fred later in the week.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/uci-world-tour/australian-national-championship-mens-road-race/winner

Some attractive prices in opposing the favourite.

Need some time to ponder maps, profiles & form  

[Tal]

Can see the logic in Les Mis for the Bafta, as it has been so successful over here as a musical for years. We Brits also like Russell Crowe and Ali G/Borat (but not Bruno or that Dick Tater fella).

Stand by my Jessica Chastain for Best Actress in the Oscars tho. That girl will be a star.

Jessica Chastain is an interesting one. She was the front runner, but there has been a big swell of support for Silver Linings Playbook recently, which has propelled Jennifer Lawrence to odds-on (and got Bradley Cooper a nomination for the Baftas).

I'd certainly support Chastain for the Oscars, but for the Baftas I have a sneaky feeling for Emmanuelle Riva for Amour. She wouldn't get a look in at the Oscars but I can maybe see a little mini banzai for the Baftas. The film did very well in the end of year polls and the subject will resonate with a high proportion of the Bafta voting crowd.

Best price I can see is 14s at Ladbrokes and I've had a cheeky score.

Could you imagine the bloke from Hangover getting an Oscar nomination?

More chance of a WSOP bracelet winner getting one.

Hang on...

[TightEnd]

On the snooker bet I think Murphy looks no better than the right price tbo, if I had a free bet then it would be Selby at 7/1, if he beats Bingo he plays the winner of Williams v Stevens and there could be some kind of let down for the winner of that match as they are good mates and hate playing each other and hate knocking each other out even more.

The good thing about Selby is his form for the last 12+ months can be ignored as he wasn't fit and you know he is a tough as teak match player when fit in the bigger events as he showed in York the other week but it's wide open really.

Thanks Phil.

My gut reaction, with no real reason really, is exactly that, Murphy seems to be priced somewhere near the right price.

Can you find me a 6/4 shot advertised @ 10/1 please?

Selby was my view at 10am, lest it is forgotten

- Much weaker half of the draw
- Trump a squiggle
- Selby is fit, and in form
- Selby is a trier and a tough sod to beat

Its a tough event, because so many of the backable fancies are drawn together in the other half, but minimum Selby gives you a good run imo 

[tikay]

Swerving away from Art! I may have a recommendation for fred later in the week.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/uci-world-tour/australian-national-championship-mens-road-race/winner

Some attractive prices in opposing the favourite.

Need some time to ponder maps, profiles & form  

Look forward to it. We will deffo get on. Bikes we like, Art, not so much.

[DungBeetle]

One for consideration, probably more to do with how much value we place on being a seed in a Grand Slam.  The Aussie Open tournament starts next week.

Ryan Harrison is 12/1 to be top American in the tournament behind the 6/4ish favourites Sam Querry and John Isner.  The reason I thought of this was memories of Harrison’s match against Andy Murray in the first round last year when he took the first set off the Scot and I recall thinking he looked rather at home on Rebound Ace, against one of the best in the world who of course loves the Australian Open and has finalled twice.  

Last year was slightly disappointing for Harrison, but if this talented player is going to have a break out season then there is no reason why 2013 can’t be it.  He just beat Isner 6-4, 6-4 overnight in the Sydney warm up tournament which is an encouraging sign.  Isner and Querry have unremarkable Aus Open records, Round 3 being their best efforts so far (I think).  To me 12/1 on Harrison to beat this pair seems a little big.

Of course much depends on the draw, as Harrison isn’t seeded whilst the other pair are which means he can face a big gun in the opening rounds, whereas the other can’t.  It’s a big draw though of course with 128 slots.

So the question is, does the disadvantage of the draw mean that 12/1 is a poor price for a talented player open to bags of improvement against two experienced campaigners who are likely not open to any improvement.

Just really chewing this over but any thoughts from tennis viewers?

[DungBeetle]

Also - trying to find a way to get with Davydenko - did anyone see him last week in Doha?  He was incredibile.  Didn't drop serve till the final and wiped the floor with Ferrer 6-2 6-3 and Ferrer is NOT a man who gives up.  Don't want him outright - but looking for an angle.  Top Russian v Youzhny?

[AndrewT]

Isner has made at least the third round in the past seven hard court slams - leaves quite the task for Harrison.

[Sheriff Fatman]

For them on my Bradford city tip

We have signed Andy gray from leeds today think he is a great signing for league two

We are now out to 20/1  E/w bet covers 1/2/3  we are 3 points from 3  so much value think I will be topping up

Always thought it was strange that Leeds signed him in the first place, as he was pretty much past it with us prior to joining them.

Good pro, but well past his best now.  League Two is about his level due to loss of pace.

[DungBeetle]

Did he have pace?  I remember him being rather cumbersome even when younger.

[DungBeetle]

Still agree he has the marks of a good L2 signing.