Tips for Tikay

[Bad Beat]

 The Greek and Pinnacle have been trading all the possibles. Pinnacle have $4,000 limits so these are real prices.

 Prior to today's games the 49ers were -1 over Atlanta with Olympic and -4 over Seattle. During the 1st half these became -1 (-130) which is nearer to -2.5 and -6.

 Pinnacle opened -1 and went up.

 Just in case anyone was thinking of hedging their San Fran spot, on these numbers I would think that at 3.8 you'd be better off pressing than laying to hedge.

 I have just bet Houston +9.5 by the way. I think it's a decent bet for all sorts of reasons. The number was put up high, partly to avoid the advantage teasers which all died when Denver didn't win. Remember that this game in the regular season opened 3.5 and got bet up to 6. Obvioulsy we have more info now, including the result of that game, but have things changed that much?

 A few other stats...

 NE in the play-offs under Belichek 16-6 su and only 9-12-1 ATS.

 NE in the play-offs at home, under Belichek after a week off 2-7-1 ATS (7-3 su).

 Small samples obv but what these numbers say to me is the market has it all built in.

[Bad Beat]

 Houston over Baltimore is probably a bet -3 by the way. New England over Baltimore has been bet up from 7.5 to 8.

 Another fun one...

 Rematches from a reg season game in the play-offs...

 The previous winners are 42-34 su but just 28-47-1 ATS since 2001.

 Maybe that says that the market over-compensates.

[bobby1]

Cheers Neil,

[BigAdz]

Su and ATS?

[Bad Beat]

Sorry...straight up (winner not counting spread) and against the spread (winner factoring in the spread).

[BigAdz]

NP, Thanks Neil.

Can I ask why we seem to want to play Atlanta when they are whipping Seattle?

Is it that we feel 49ers would optimise the opportunities that Seahawks are missing are are there some subtleties I am misssing, especially as Falcons will be at home?

[TightEnd]

NP, Thanks Neil.

Can I ask why we seem to want to play Atlanta when they are whipping Seattle?

Is it that we feel 49ers would optimise the opportunities that Seahawks are missing are are there some subtleties I am misssing, especially as Falcons will be at home?

I am not as optimistic as some but two things

a) Atlanta is not stopping Seattle's offense and SF has more threats than Seattle do

b) Seattle are missing Clemons their top pass rusher, so Atlanta can do a lot tonight that they will struggle to do against Aldon Smith, Justin Smith and a generally excellent SF defense

[kukushkin88]

NP, Thanks Neil.

Can I ask why we seem to want to play Atlanta when they are whipping Seattle?

Is it that we feel 49ers would optimise the opportunities that Seahawks are missing are are there some subtleties I am misssing, especially as Falcons will be at home?

Atlanta aren´t really whipping Seattle, it´s only the failure to convert the 2 red zone trips between the teams.

[The Camel]

NP, Thanks Neil.

Can I ask why we seem to want to play Atlanta when they are whipping Seattle?

Is it that we feel 49ers would optimise the opportunities that Seahawks are missing are are there some subtleties I am misssing, especially as Falcons will be at home?

Atlanta aren´t really whipping Seattle, it´s only the failure to convert the 2 red zone trips between the teams.

The Atlanta D is LOL bad.

[BigAdz]

Thanks again . Makes more sense now.

Sorry, whipping based on the score at time of posting. Uninitiated AF watcher remember.

[redarmi]

The Greek and Pinnacle have been trading all the possibles. Pinnacle have $4,000 limits so these are real prices.

Yeah we were taking a bit more than that and the shrewdies wanted 49ers -1.

[TightEnd]

80,000 sphincters currently tightening in the Georgiadome, BigAdz!

[bobby1]

How much weight do you allow for the previous match up stats Neil, I can see the logic in team head to head stats but does the previous 76 games that were rematches of previous games that season mean much without them taking point spreads into consideration. For example If there were a load of 3-4 point favs in the rematches do those results have any relevance to teams that are 9 point favs?

Would those stats not need mining a little more to allow like for like comparison for similar type of point spreads?

[The Camel]

Gronk absent for the first meeting.

[TightEnd]

Sigmund Bloom ‏@SigmundBloom

If I'm #49ers, I am rooting for #falcons to pull this out. Don't want team that feels invincible and knows you well coming to Candlestick


Mr Bloom is the lead writer at Bleacher report, footballguys.com etc etc

Interesting take on it