Tips for Tikay

[Ant040689]

I think Palace are value at 6.5 tonight to beat Stoke. I have mentioned on the other thread how our squad is down a little, to the bare bones. But it hasn't overly affected our output as much as I thought it should have and reports from recent games have had us looking quite promising. Despite a slump away from home.

We played them at home and had a 0-0 draw, we were the better team and they really didn't create many chances at all with 5 regular starters in the team and then the likes of Crouch/Owen/Sorensen coming in. The players that replaced the other six all have quite a bit of premiership gametime behind them.

Palace had made only the one change, but probably the most crucial in the 22 goals Murray being replaced by the league 2 standard Jermaine Easter.

I don't think Palace will necessarily win at all, especially with Stoke backclashing, possibly, after terrible home leakages to Chelsea, conceding 4 and the game before that conceding 3 against Southamption at the Brittania. There is an added incentive for a home tie against Man City on the cards, too.

Palace actually will want this a lot more than Stoke imo, as the Man City home tie would be a massive boost to club revenue and would be a very exciting game for us to experience. So the players will be up for it a lot more than Stoke's. Stoke instead have to fend off another embarrassing result if they lose to us, while if they win that is what everyone expected, so lose, lose. So the pressure is on.

Stoke are on a slump, they have been shipping goals at home and in my limited knowledge I would say this game should be more like 4.75 not 6.5.

So I advise get on BetVictor at 6.5 for the outright win for I would say a fiver, or get on Pinnacle at Palace +0.5 at 2.47 for 15 pounds (or lay Stoke at a better price on Betfair).

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/fa-cup/stoke-v-crystal-palace/winner

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/fa-cup/stoke-v-crystal-palace/asian-handicap

[rfgqqabc]

Any links for the cricket?

[Ant040689]

check pm

[tikay]

The bandwagon is rolling and the San Fran line is moving ever upward. Nearly 4.5 now.

With that, their Superbowl price is contracting.

My estimation is that 2/1 is roughly neutral ev, so greening out at that level there is fine.

I doubt it will touch 2.9, but that would be the price I'm tempted to bail out at.

Thanks Keith.

The bet(s) are yours, so you must advise & instruct accordingly. Until then, I'll sit on my hands as far as the Fred bets are concerned.

The current price is 2/1 or slightly better right across the board, see....

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/superbowl/winner

The current Betfair price is 3.15.

Our position currently is.....

£150 @ 6.8 (Betfair)

£100 @ 8.4 (Betfair)

All joking aside, these are your bets, so we'll do whatever you advise.

God knows what the Compliance Officer Doobs will make of all this.

[Bad Beat]

 I don't think the winning teams quarterback is a 4/6 chance - I think it will be much shorter. In this market they usually are about 1/3 on Betfair the two qb's combined with a little bit of overlay (maybe 10%). I think this year they are more likely than usual.

 I would happily bet 4/6 now that the winning QB is the MVP. I really like the 4/1.

 Now that the line has moved through the key number of 3 it can easily move up. 5 is a totally dead-number and there is obviously the recency bias tjhat will mean the public are backing the 49ers. It could easily reach 6. If you believe that the closing line is always right then 6 would equate to about 68% to win. If you believe that the 3.5 it opened in many places yesterday morning is nearer then maybe it's 63%.

 In the Suberbowl I would guess SF will be a 2 point dog to the Pats and a 4.5 point favourite over Baltimore.

 At those lines they are 43% and 64%.

 So if you say they are 65% to win on Sunday and the Pats are 77% then they are 77% to be 65%x43% and they are 23% to be 65%x64%.

 That makes them 31.5% at the moment or about 3.15.

 I thought they were a good bet at 3.65 prior to the Pats game on Sunday (you were kind of getting the Pats losing for free).

 At 9/4 I would not lay-off but it's quite close and I wouldn't say it was a terrible crime against equity.

 Obviously the SB predictions can be changed massively by recency depending on who impresses on Sunday.

[tikay]

It's risky using the Globes as a bellwether for the Oscars, as they're voted for by the foreign press, but there was very much a feeling of 'apart from Day Lewis, Lincoln's not much cop'. Not only did Spielberg not win but Tommy Lee Jones missed out on Supporting Actor. This would provide a good basis for opposing Lincoln for best picture. The opposition is Argo and Les Mis, and they both won their categories last night.

In the Best Picture betting, Argo was chopped from 11/1 to 5/1 and Les Mis has drifted over the last few days to 10/1 from 6/1. I think this represents value to oppose Lincoln - Les Mis is building up a head of steam from people seeing it at the cinema now (something Argo and SLP won't get) and my previous comments about it for the Baftas in terms of its scale also apply here. Chicago won Best Picture in 2003 against more serious films so the voters have form for preferring a musical against more weighty pieces (Chicago beat The Pianist and The Hours).

Therefore I recommend a mini-banzai of £20 on Les Miserables for the Best Picture Oscar (and I do mean Oscars this time) at 10/1 with Hills or Boylesports (or Stan James, for those not persona non grata)

Thanks Andrew.

This thread is in danger of being dominated by Arty & novelty bets.

Betfair go around 15/1, but the market is very thin. Would it make sense to go that route & try & get a better price?

Yeah - for £30 you'll be fine.

Oh the irony of not checking Betfair.

Please, £20 not £30.

Details to be confirmed later, as I cannot C & P it right now, but we are on.

I forgot to C & P the Betslip last night whilst I was at home, so I will do so tonight.

However, Mere needs to fill in the Spready details, so the bet IS confirmed to be on, as follows;

Les Miserables, Best Picture, Oscars, £20, Betfair.

The Bet was matched as follows......

£19.98 @ 15.5.

£0.02 @ 16.

Don't even ask.

[tikay]

I don't think the winning teams quarterback is a 4/6 chance - I think it will be much shorter. In this market they usually are about 1/3 on Betfair the two qb's combined with a little bit of overlay (maybe 10%). I think this year they are more likely than usual.

 I would happily bet 4/6 now that the winning QB is the MVP. I really like the 4/1.

 Now that the line has moved through the key number of 3 it can easily move up. 5 is a totally dead-number and there is obviously the recency bias tjhat will mean the public are backing the 49ers. It could easily reach 6. If you believe that the closing line is always right then 6 would equate to about 68% to win. If you believe that the 3.5 it opened in many places yesterday morning is nearer then maybe it's 63%.

 In the Suberbowl I would guess SF will be a 2 point dog to the Pats and a 4.5 point favourite over Baltimore.

 At those lines they are 43% and 64%.

 So if you say they are 65% to win on Sunday and the Pats are 77% then they are 77% to be 65%x43% and they are 23% to be 65%x64%.

 That makes them 31.5% at the moment or about 3.15.

 I thought they were a good bet at 3.65 prior to the Pats game on Sunday (you were kind of getting the Pats losing for free).

 At 9/4 I would not lay-off but it's quite close and I wouldn't say it was a terrible crime against equity.

 Obviously the SB predictions can be changed massively by recency depending on who impresses on Sunday.

Love that analysis.

When did the word "recency" emerge?  Is it an American-ism, like "winningmost" & "straightaway"?

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 0820, Tuesday January 15th                     

PROFIT on Month = £232.60

Unsettled Bets  - £1,191.00


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=18

[Tal]

I'm still trying to get over the Camel's guesstimate. It's bad enough as a noun, bit he used it as a verb!

As words that make my skin crawl go, it's right there with signage.

[tikay]

Mr Pujara was not selected for today's India England ODI, which is bad for us.

The two India openers failed miserably though, so we might still have a squeak, though we are a bit thin now. 

[tikay]

Daily Report as @ 0845, Tuesday January 15th

No bets completed yesterday, so it as as you were.

We did place no less than three banzais though......

Heidi Spencer, next CBB thrownoutee, £10 @ 8/1.

Les Miserables, Best Picture, Oscars, £20 @ 14/1.

Superbowl MVP, Gonzalez, £5 @ 66/1.

[Doobs]

I'm still trying to get over the Camel's guesstimate. It's bad enough as a noun, bit he used it as a verb!

As words that make my skin crawl go, it's right there with signage.

Guesstimate is clearly a very good word.  It comes from the mixture of guesswork and calculation.  Guesstimate is a much more honest description of much of what I do in the World.  If you tell people you are doing a projection or have modelled the results, a layman may have no idea of the amount of guesswork involved in setting some of the underlying assumptions.  Guesstimate lets them know exactly where we really are.

By contrast, recency is an abomination.

[Tal]

I'm still trying to get over the Camel's guesstimate. It's bad enough as a noun, bit he used it as a verb!

As words that make my skin crawl go, it's right there with signage.

Guesstimate is clearly a very good word.  It comes from the mixture of guesswork and calculation.  Guesstimate is a much more honest description of much of what I do in the World.  If you tell people you are doing a projection or have modelled the results, a layman may have no idea of the amount of guesswork involved in setting some of the underlying assumptions.  Guesstimate lets them know exactly where we really are.

By contrast, recency is an abomination.

We already have a word that explains to the audience we have done some calculations based on knowledge, experience and a little guesswork.

Estimate

[tikay]

I'm still trying to get over the Camel's guesstimate. It's bad enough as a noun, bit he used it as a verb!

As words that make my skin crawl go, it's right there with signage.

Guesstimate is clearly a very good word.  It comes from the mixture of guesswork and calculation.  Guesstimate is a much more honest description of much of what I do in the World.  If you tell people you are doing a projection or have modelled the results, a layman may have no idea of the amount of guesswork involved in setting some of the underlying assumptions.  Guesstimate lets them know exactly where we really are.

By contrast, recency is an abomination.

We already have a word that explains to the audience we have done some calculations based on knowledge, experience and a little guesswork.

Estimate

Ha!

At one time, early in my working life, my job title was "Estimator", then, later, "Chief Estimator". 

I estimated things for a living. Guesstimate may have been more appropriate though. 

[TightEnd]

I guesstimate this may raise an eyebrow

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=F5PsGReKLho#!