Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

I guesstimate this may raise an eyebrow

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=F5PsGReKLho#!

Excellent - as long as they are not real tattoos, of course.

[tikay]

Think we did well to swerve that bet on a lot of runs being scored in today's ODI!

[TightEnd]

pitch is slow isn't it?

England bowling well too

Fortunately I wasn't getting up at 6am to check the first innings quotes, which were suspecded all yesterday!

[TL900]

Philadelphia 76ers -3 vs New Orleans Hornets (Ladbrokes)

On phone so will post links/explanation when i get home in 20mins or so. Line is off with laddies.

Suggest medium sized wager

[tikay]

Philadelphia 76ers -3 vs New Orleans Hornets (Ladbrokes)

On phone so will post links/explanation when i get home in 20mins or so. Line is off with laddies.

Suggest medium sized wager

I went to find that ion Oddschecker, & the first game that came up was.....

Dongguan v Guangdong  

It would seem they play Basketball in China.

[Doobs]

I'm still trying to get over the Camel's guesstimate. It's bad enough as a noun, bit he used it as a verb!

As words that make my skin crawl go, it's right there with signage.

Guesstimate is clearly a very good word.  It comes from the mixture of guesswork and calculation.  Guesstimate is a much more honest description of much of what I do in the World.  If you tell people you are doing a projection or have modelled the results, a layman may have no idea of the amount of guesswork involved in setting some of the underlying assumptions.  Guesstimate lets them know exactly where we really are.

By contrast, recency is an abomination.

We already have a word that explains to the audience we have done some calculations based on knowledge, experience and a little guesswork.

Estimate

I have spent 25 years explaining the results of complex mathematical calculations to laymen.  I would say your confidence in their understanding of that word is misplaced.  I think most of them will get guesstimate.

Language should be used as a tool to aid the understanding of our audience and not as a tool to show how much more clever we are.

I guess we'll just have to agree to differ on this. 

[tikay]

Philadelphia 76ers -3 vs New Orleans Hornets (Ladbrokes)

On phone so will post links/explanation when i get home in 20mins or so. Line is off with laddies.

Suggest medium sized wager

Thanks Tom.

We had a "2 unit" bet, which is small-medium on your scale, as that line of -3 exists with several firms, including Laddies, Pinnacle & Sporting Bet.

Anyway, we are on.

We have £22 @ 10/11, Ladbrokes, 76-ers, -3.


ON

 Selection10/11 - Philadelphia 76ers

EventNew Orleans Hornets at Philadelphia 76ers NBA

MarketPoint Spread
 Your bets (1) Single - Philadelphia 76ers
1 line at £22.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £22.00
Potential Return: £42.00
Time: 15/01/13 09:49
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000241

[TightEnd]

Blimey, the ODI runs got there

85 runs in the last 8 overs, 68 in the last 5

the new regs that mean only 4 allowed, not 5, outside the circle is meaning that scores are going to go up structurally unless its a very very slow pitch

I think India will hold this, from here

[smashedagain]

20 in the last over

[Doobs]

I will try again, as I appreciate my last post could be viewed as snotty.  In my defence, I have a one year old here who loves to press every button on any gadget I am holding.  That makes posting quite a stressful occurence at times.

Back to Camel's OP.

Talking of the MVP, surely if the 49ers win then your boy Colin (how can u have a hero called Colin, he needs to change that) must be the MVP. He's 4/1 on paddy. Sounds like 4/1 on what Keef has at a 2/1 shot (49ers winning) no?

Here's the full list of Superbowl MVPs.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/award_sbmvp.htm

11 of the last 20 have been the QB of the winning team.

Assuming a Pats/SF game, the points line will be insanely high, making it even more likely an offensive player will win it.

I guesstimate it's 4/6 the winning teams QB is MVP. Double that with 2/1 the Niners and you get 4/1!

In this context, the estimate of the chance of the quarterback winning MVP is 11 in 20.  This would give odds of about 4/5.  

Camel has included the background maths, but has made an unexplained adjustment to get this number down to 4/6.  As he has veered away from the straight mathematical based estimate, he has used the word guesstimate instead of estimate.  My view would be that, not only is guesstimate not an abomination, it has been used in the right context here.

Our view of whether 4/1 or 9/2 is a good price on Kaepernick winning MVP would be based on our individual view of how much Kaepernick is more likely to win the MVP than a typical superbowl winning quarterback of the last 20 years.  That can only be based on educated guesswork.  Neil's view also seemed to be that 11/20 didn't reflect this unknown Kaep effect.  My view is that Kaepernick may be that bit special away from from the norm, but the previous 20 superbowl winning quarterbacks were likely to be pretty good too (and complaince Doobs would stop the bet anyway).  

I appreciate I could correctly use the word estimate to describe the process of coming up with our view of the correct price, but I think guesstimate works better.  I offer no defence of recency.

As an aside I was once accused here of not really getting variance, I remember thinking of all the people here you could accuse of not really getting variance, I was probably the worst one.

[Rubbish2407]

African Cup of Nations starts this weekend and I've had a little banzai bet on the top goalscorer. Lots of famous names on the list headed by none other than Didier Drogba. Way down the list though is Zambian captain Chris Katongo. Being Captain he's pretty much guaranteed a start and they have whipping boys Burkina Faso in their group, They also have Ethiopia who have either pulled out or been disqualified the last several tournaments. Katongo, I believe, although I'm not 100% certain, is the penalty taker.

Katongo was joint top scorer last tournament with three and he should be there or thereabouts this time as well.

You can currently get 33/1 at a few places, he's 20.00 on Betfair.

I've had a tenner E/W top 3 paid at BetVictor.

[Tal]

I'm still trying to get over the Camel's guesstimate. It's bad enough as a noun, bit he used it as a verb!

As words that make my skin crawl go, it's right there with signage.

Guesstimate is clearly a very good word.  It comes from the mixture of guesswork and calculation.  Guesstimate is a much more honest description of much of what I do in the World.  If you tell people you are doing a projection or have modelled the results, a layman may have no idea of the amount of guesswork involved in setting some of the underlying assumptions.  Guesstimate lets them know exactly where we really are.

By contrast, recency is an abomination.

We already have a word that explains to the audience we have done some calculations based on knowledge, experience and a little guesswork.

Estimate

I have spent 25 years explaining the results of complex mathematical calculations to laymen.  I would say your confidence in their understanding of that word is misplaced.  I think most of them will get guesstimate.

Language should be used as a tool to aid the understanding of our audience and not as a tool to show how much more clever we are.

I guess we'll just have to agree to differ on this. 

Wasn't quite expecting that tenor of reaction, if I'm honest.

It is a word - as is signage - but I don't like it, partly because it is a word that I don't feel adds anything to the words we had before.

Apparently, in making this point, I've caused offence and come across to you like a know-it-all. I could agree with you that language needs to evolve and that its sole function is to aid understanding or to convey a message. I could also happily agree that Camel's post makes perfect sense and that his deliberate choice of words highlighted how approximate his maths was.

But how about I just apologise for any offence caused and we move on?

[Doobs]

I'm still trying to get over the Camel's guesstimate. It's bad enough as a noun, bit he used it as a verb!

As words that make my skin crawl go, it's right there with signage.

Guesstimate is clearly a very good word.  It comes from the mixture of guesswork and calculation.  Guesstimate is a much more honest description of much of what I do in the World.  If you tell people you are doing a projection or have modelled the results, a layman may have no idea of the amount of guesswork involved in setting some of the underlying assumptions.  Guesstimate lets them know exactly where we really are.

By contrast, recency is an abomination.

We already have a word that explains to the audience we have done some calculations based on knowledge, experience and a little guesswork.

Estimate

I have spent 25 years explaining the results of complex mathematical calculations to laymen.  I would say your confidence in their understanding of that word is misplaced.  I think most of them will get guesstimate.

Language should be used as a tool to aid the understanding of our audience and not as a tool to show how much more clever we are.

I guess we'll just have to agree to differ on this. 

Wasn't quite expecting that tenor of reaction, if I'm honest.

It is a word - as is signage - but I don't like it, partly because it is a word that I don't feel adds anything to the words we had before.

Apparently, in making this point, I've caused offence and come across to you like a know-it-all. I could agree with you that language needs to evolve and that its sole function is to aid understanding or to convey a message. I could also happily agree that Camel's post makes perfect sense and that his deliberate choice of words highlighted how approximate his maths was.

But how about I just apologise for any offence caused and we move on?

If anything I was pretty snotty. So I apologise and let's move on.

As an aside anyone got an idea of how I should explain snow to a one year old.  She is clearly fascinated by the stuff, but her language skills are currently limited to pointing and saying "da".

[Ant040689]

I'm still trying to get over the Camel's guesstimate. It's bad enough as a noun, bit he used it as a verb!

As words that make my skin crawl go, it's right there with signage.

Guesstimate is clearly a very good word.  It comes from the mixture of guesswork and calculation.  Guesstimate is a much more honest description of much of what I do in the World.  If you tell people you are doing a projection or have modelled the results, a layman may have no idea of the amount of guesswork involved in setting some of the underlying assumptions.  Guesstimate lets them know exactly where we really are.

By contrast, recency is an abomination.

We already have a word that explains to the audience we have done some calculations based on knowledge, experience and a little guesswork.

Estimate

I have spent 25 years explaining the results of complex mathematical calculations to laymen.  I would say your confidence in their understanding of that word is misplaced.  I think most of them will get guesstimate.

Language should be used as a tool to aid the understanding of our audience and not as a tool to show how much more clever we are.

I guess we'll just have to agree to differ on this. 

Wasn't quite expecting that tenor of reaction, if I'm honest.

It is a word - as is signage - but I don't like it, partly because it is a word that I don't feel adds anything to the words we had before.

Apparently, in making this point, I've caused offence and come across to you like a know-it-all. I could agree with you that language needs to evolve and that its sole function is to aid understanding or to convey a message. I could also happily agree that Camel's post makes perfect sense and that his deliberate choice of words highlighted how approximate his maths was.

But how about I just apologise for any offence caused and we move on?

If anything I was pretty snotty. So I apologise and let's move on.

As an aside anyone got an idea of how I should explain snow to a one year old.  She is clearly fascinated by the stuff, but her language skills are currently limited to pointing and saying "da".

Get her wrapped up and on the stuff imo.

[david3103]

I'm still trying to get over the Camel's guesstimate. It's bad enough as a noun, bit he used it as a verb!

As words that make my skin crawl go, it's right there with signage.

Guesstimate is clearly a very good word.  It comes from the mixture of guesswork and calculation.  Guesstimate is a much more honest description of much of what I do in the World.  If you tell people you are doing a projection or have modelled the results, a layman may have no idea of the amount of guesswork involved in setting some of the underlying assumptions.  Guesstimate lets them know exactly where we really are.

By contrast, recency is an abomination.

We already have a word that explains to the audience we have done some calculations based on knowledge, experience and a little guesswork.

Estimate

I have spent 25 years explaining the results of complex mathematical calculations to laymen.  I would say your confidence in their understanding of that word is misplaced.  I think most of them will get guesstimate.

Language should be used as a tool to aid the understanding of our audience and not as a tool to show how much more clever we are.

I guess we'll just have to agree to differ on this. 

Wasn't quite expecting that tenor of reaction, if I'm honest.

It is a word - as is signage - but I don't like it, partly because it is a word that I don't feel adds anything to the words we had before.

Apparently, in making this point, I've caused offence and come across to you like a know-it-all. I could agree with you that language needs to evolve and that its sole function is to aid understanding or to convey a message. I could also happily agree that Camel's post makes perfect sense and that his deliberate choice of words highlighted how approximate his maths was.

But how about I just apologise for any offence caused and we move on?

If anything I was pretty snotty. So I apologise and let's move on.

As an aside anyone got an idea of how I should explain snow to a one year old.  She is clearly fascinated by the stuff, but her language skills are currently limited to pointing and saying "da".

Get her wrapped up and on the stuff imo.

Absolutely this