Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

the indian horse

started 7-2 and ran well before either blowing up/ finding trip to short to fade late till 4th

went 1.5 in running

once again you cant eat value

[Karabiner]

I reckon Simon was just scattering a little ground-bait for future backgammon action.

[doubleup]

the indian horse

started 7-2 and ran well before either blowing up/ finding trip to short to fade late till 4th

went 1.5 in running

once again you cant eat value

but you can eat your greens

[redarmi]

That is a good point about traders but that is where and why we need to understand our reasons for a bet.  Too often the justification for greening out is because we can take a profit but that wasn't in the original plan but is more an afterthought because we can but without thought to whether we are actually reducing our EV.  Sometimes reducing our EV isn't a bad thing though and not just because we are underrolled.  An example - if I had a bank of £10k and had £200 on MVG to win the darts @ 80/1 I wouldn't have been playing outside of my bankroll but when he got to the final my EV of that bet would be (assuming he is evens to win) £8k (50%*£16k).  Now assume I can only bet Taylor at 10/11 if I had £8k Taylor at 10/11 I would be giving up roughly £364  of equity to effectively guarantee myself an amount of money that would increase my bankroll by nearly 80% and all the attendant things that go with that with regards to my earning power over the next year.  If anything you could argue that if i was not to do that i would be gambling too big a proportion of my bankroll through the opportunity cost of not hedging.  Of course this is all irrelevant to a 5/2 shot that is now evens because the potential winnings don't have the same opportunity cost but I think it goes to show that it isn't always a simple argument and it sometimes is important to think about things other than just EV in a vacuum.

[Tal]

What the heck is happening at Forest??

[horseplayer]

the indian horse

started 7-2 and ran well before either blowing up/ finding trip to short to fade late till 4th

went 1.5 in running

once again you cant eat value

but you can eat your greens

i have had actually managed to back the horse then yes maybe i could have

[Doobs]

I am someone who loves withdrawing and hates depositing.  The betfair account always has a few bets running and is used to play poker too.  Given a choice between greening out some bets and depositing, I sometimes choose the former.  I am never greening out in a thin market because of this.

I know this action is mildly -EV, but is good for happiness EV, particularly when I am running bad and looking to make multiple deposits across poker sites.  It probably saves a few auto fraud calls too.  Please confirm you spent ...500 euros in ...France on a gambling site, please confirm you spent ...£500 in the ...UK on a gambling site ...

[atdc21]

Hi all, some excellent posts on this thread re laying off bets or 'greening out', the above by doobs prob spot on for a lot of non pro punters.
bad beat has put across some well written points for the side of non greening, personally i love to have free bets, after years of having to sit and suffer with horses getting caught on the line,falling, taking wrong course etc when looking certain winners.
From what i read normally on this subject the bigger pro bettors like to let it ride more, the smaller punter green up, whatever suits the individual.
Also bad beat in your bookmaking days you probably lots of times had a certain runner up you for more than you wanted and got the floor man to go and get you some back, not much different than greening up(more like cutting losses as per Simon Galloways excellent post on the subject)
Anyway keep up the good stuff the more discussing the more we learn
p.s you will never go skint having a free bet

[kukushkin88]

Finally over the Seattle disappointment. Just for the record I never much liked Seattle, just thought they were a terrific bet.

Got a weather related one for sunday, it looks like a high probability of circa 20mph winds around game time. This is definitely enough to affect the pass game. Lots of Baltimore´s recent productivity on offence has been from Flacco long passes, he´ll find it hard to be accurate with long passes here. Brady no doubt will cope but there´ll be plenty of short passes underneath to Welker and Hernandez and the points line as a result looks a little high.

Suggest £44 on points under 51 Baltimore @ New England it´s 10/11 across the board.

[horseplayer]

Hi all, some excellent posts on this thread re laying off bets or 'greening out', the above by doobs prob spot on for a lot of non pro punters.
bad beat has put across some well written points for the side of non greening, personally i love to have free bets, after years of having to sit and suffer with horses getting caught on the line,falling, taking wrong course etc when looking certain winners.
From what i read normally on this subject the bigger pro bettors like to let it ride more, the smaller punter green up, whatever suits the individual.
Also bad beat in your bookmaking days you probably lots of times had a certain runner up you for more than you wanted and got the floor man to go and get you some back, not much different than greening up(more like cutting losses as per Simon Galloways excellent post on the subject)
Anyway keep up the good stuff the more discussing the more we learn
p.s you will never go skint having a free bet

you will if you keep losing value when obtaining that free bet albeit slowly

this subject is going round and round and round again

i dont see it as a bad thing every bodies circumstances are different and as i have said before i used to be a big "believer" in laying bets off

[atdc21]

Hi Horseplayer,
Yeah can go round and round with it, you sound like you bet quite a bit and to a sucesful degree, that in itself prob leads you down the path of wanting to keep your bets, also it obv makes a massive difference in the odds you lay off at, as to how much you take from your winnings, making the 'laying off' almost as big an art as getting the selection correct.

[horseplayer]

Hi Horseplayer,
Yeah can go round and round with it, you sound like you bet quite a bit and to a sucesful degree, that in itself prob leads you down the path of wanting to keep your bets, also it obv makes a massive difference in the odds you lay off at, as to how much you take from your winnings, making the 'laying off' almost as big an art as getting the selection correct.

hi mate

the only reason i stopped was because somebody who i probably respect more than anybody else i no who bets horses everyday told me i was throwing money anyway. Upon checking the records in my case he was correct

Infact the last six months are a period were if i had kept lays in running active i would have "won" a lot more money but long term so far it has proved less profitable to do son.

[atdc21]

Nice one, at least you have found the right way for you.
Also worth noting that all this is still relatively new compared to normal betting and be done with it, betfair (which was prob pioneer in this field) have only been going approx15 years, so relative to the 1000s years people have been betting, there gotta be room for improvement for all concerned .

[tikay]

Finally over the Seattle disappointment. Just for the record I never much liked Seattle, just thought they were a terrific bet.

Got a weather related one for sunday, it looks like a high probability of circa 20mph winds around game time. This is definitely enough to affect the pass game. Lots of Baltimore´s recent productivity on offence has been from Flacco long passes, he´ll find it hard to be accurate with long passes here. Brady no doubt will cope but there´ll be plenty of short passes underneath to Welker and Hernandez and the points line as a result looks a little high.

Suggest £44 on points under 51 Baltimore @ New England it´s 10/11 across the board.

Gotcha Kuku, thank you, that gets us off to the last Playoff Weekend nicely.

We got UNDER 51.5 points, Baltimore @ New England.

ON

Win
Single: Under (51.5) @ 10/11
1 line at £44.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £44.00
Potential returns: £84.00
No: O/23146337/0000243

 
Total stake: £44.00
Free bets voucher: £0.00
Total Cost: £44.00

[atdc21]

Hi Tikay,
I have been reading this thread for a while now, amazing really the expanse of different sports and the knowledge different people have on all these sports imo.