Tips for Tikay

[Chompy]

Nah, Speidi stayed. Meh. Only a feeler bonsai that one.

Rylan now 2/5 if you wanted to lay back the stake. I wouldn't though. Let he'm ride.

[bobby1]

Leeds at 3.3 tonight?

Only thing I could remotely find.

 

Any chance you could change your avatar to Basil Rathbone, Camel? The definitive Sherlock Holmes (surely no comeback on that? No closet Jeremy Brett or Christopher Lee fans, right?)

Sorry, only just seen this -- couldn't let it pass.  Jeremy Brett was a brilliant Holmes, and the closest to Doyle's character (imo).

This is where I do my Derren Brown impression and reveal an envelope, within which there is a card. The card is shown to the camera and reads: Only Kinboshi will disagree



I bet you think George Lazenby was the best Bond as well.

You'll be be telling us next that you prefer Roast Beef Monster Munch.

Maybe Richard Orford is your favourite Sky Poker presenter?

I must concur with Kinboshi, Brett was my favourite Holmes by a long chalk.
I'd imagine most serious fans would have no problem with that and it is by no means as clear cut a case as the Bond Connery vs Moore issue. If anything, I'd imagine serious fans would likely favour Brett over Rathbone.
Actually speaking of Roger Moore (I met him once, an absolute gent), he once played Sherlock Holmes in 'Sherlock Holmes in New York' with Patrick Macnee as Watson. Here it is, in all its glory
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzTDgzI6ypE

The Rathbone series was deffo spoilt by the propoganda years and all that fighting off the Germans instead of good old Prof M, the anti German speech at the end of Voice of Terror ( I think it was ) was just so out of place. For me they had more suspense and character than the Brett series tho I enjoy both of them. Peter Cushing did  a BBC series in the late 60 or the 70's which I have and that is also a good series but the Cushing highlight for me was deffo the film Hound of the Bskervilles tho as a fan I cannot remember seeing a bad version of that.

My brother lived in the same house as Edward Hardwicke who played Watson to Brett's Holmes for a few years as he dated his daughter and Brett was confirmed an awkward man tho I think he was very ill by the time the final series was filmed. So for me it is Rathbone, Crushing Brett but I would happily watch them all.


As you were gamblers.  

[tikay]

Nah, Speidi stayed. Meh. Only a feeler bonsai that one.

Rylan now 2/5 if you wanted to lay back the stake. I wouldn't though. Let he'm ride.

Nah, can't afford to lay it back, we done £10 tonight alrerady on Heidi.

When we were kids, every Xmas, without fail, we'd watch a film called "Heidi" on Grandad Angell's 9" screen monochrome telly. Without fail, though we knew what happened in the end, we all cried floods of tears on Christmas afternoon watching that. Gotta love Christmas, eh?


 

[Bad Beat]

 Actually disagree on the greening. I think the main problem that people have when they think about greening is that they don't consider it as a new bet that has absolutely nothing to do with the business that has already been done.

 I think if someone thinks we should green out on QPR, (as they did here), they should come on and ask what does everyone think of QPR to stay up as a bet at the current price. If people think QPR to stay up is a good bet then that should be bet. If people think it's a really good bet then enough should be bet such that Fred now wishes QPR to stay up.

 It is massively important that punters get into the mindset of thinking that they are simply having a new bet in the opposite direction and that they ask themselves the question:

 "would I have this bet at this price if I came into this market fresh, with no position?".

 It is no coincidence that Betunfair are spending lots of money promoting there "take" option which simply encourages people to pay lots more commission.

 It is also common for markets to be wrong due to a bias in the market and for that bias to never correct itself over time, prior to the event finishing. It is very rare in a sporting event for the market to be totally wrong one way and then half-way through to be totally wrong the other way.

 When greening you usually end up with one of the bets being terrible.
 
 

[tikay]

Guardiola to Bayern on 3 yr deal

Shakes up a few long term manager markets!

Shocked by that, really. I had it in mind that Man Utd, with Sir Alex approaching his dotage, would not pass up the opportunity.

How wrong could I be?

[DungBeetle]

Tipping my hat to Tighty here.  I had not bet tonight but started watching the snooker with Selby 5-1 down to Bingham and getting crushed, but somehow he has the resolve to reel off 5 frames in a row to win 6-5.  Many sportsmen give up when they are up against it, but one must give huge credit to Selby here - what a warrior - great to watch.

[tikay]

Actually disagree on the greening. I think the main problem that people have when they think about greening is that they don't consider it as a new bet that has absolutely nothing to do with the business that has already been done.

 I think if someone thinks we should green out on QPR, (as they did here), they should come on and ask what does everyone think of QPR to stay up as a bet at the current price. If people think QPR to stay up is a good bet then that should be bet. If people think it's a really good bet then enough should be bet such that Fred now wishes QPR to stay up.

 It is massively important that punters get into the mindset of thinking that they are simply having a new bet in the opposite direction and that they ask themselves the question:

 "would I have this bet at this price if I came into this market fresh, with no position".

 It is no coincidence that Betunfair are spending lots of money promoting there "take" option which simply encourages people to pay lots more commission.

 It is also common for markets to be wrong due to a bias in the market and for that bias to never correct itself over tim, prior to the event finishing. It is very rare in a sporting event for the market to be totally wrong one way and then half-way through to be totally wrong the other way.

 When greening you usually end up with one of the bets being terrible.
 
 

That's a nice way of explaining it Neil.

For me, the QPR bet passes the test, in that I think they have no chance of staying up.

What price would I want for them to survive? I don't really know how to work that out, but it must be between 6/1 & 10/1, surely?

You mention the "Take" Option on Betfair. I notice that Wm Hill now allow you to close (some) bets "mid-bet", let's say you bet Chelsea to win, & they are a goal up with 30 mins to go, you can close the bet, at, I assume, a horrendous price. I assume the value would be horrendous, or it would generally speaking?

[bobby1]

Tipping my hat to Tighty here.  I had not bet tonight but started watching the snooker with Selby 5-1 down to Bingham and getting crushed, but somehow he has the resolve to reel off 5 frames in a row to win 6-5.  Many sportsmen give up when they are up against it, but one must give huge credit to Selby here - what a warrior - great to watch.

The guy really does have massive Kahuna's doesn't he.

[tikay]

How to make a pratt of yourself, Lesson 28.

QPR are 6/4 to stay up. 


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/to-stay-up

OK, OK, it is nowhere near 6/1, but I would not back them to stay up with Keith's entire roll at that price.

[horseplayer]

not for the first time neil puts something in a way i have been trying to for a long time on here

[Tal]

Guardiola to Bayern on 3 yr deal

Shakes up a few long term manager markets!

Shocked by that, really. I had it in mind that Man Utd, with Sir Alex approaching his dotage, would not pass up the opportunity.

How wrong could I be?

I think the 3 year contract at Bayern would finish just on time for Fergie to go. However, Pep will feel he has to prove himself at a team that hasn't been built for and around him; a completely new success. If he wins the Champions League with Bayern next season (not out of the question, although I'll be hanging on to my £2 for the time being), this could be a difffernt prospect altogether.

[tikay]

MEYDAN 17:25 HANDICAP (3YO+) 1m 4f
17-01-2013 17:25
Win or E/W
In The Spotlight @ 9/1 (GP)

get as much as on as paddy power will let you

will start max 6-1 tommorow

not a good race

apart from the probable fav the rest have big doubts

this horse has won 11 from 15 in india including group 1's

what does that relate to? no idea really but previous indian raiders in dubai have won/ran well

jockey booking suggests ready to rock and roll

Soz horsey, been really busy today, so I never saw this in time.

The horse is 5/1 now, & you recommended it at 9/1, so unless you tell me otherwise, it is no longer a bet.

Hope you got plenty on at 9/1, & it trots up like a Chompy good thing.

[tikay]

Are we on laying Arsenal tonight at all?

As luck would have it, no, as I was busy.

We swerve good.

[horseplayer]

MEYDAN 17:25 HANDICAP (3YO+) 1m 4f
17-01-2013 17:25
Win or E/W
In The Spotlight @ 9/1 (GP)

get as much as on as paddy power will let you

will start max 6-1 tommorow

not a good race

apart from the probable fav the rest have big doubts

this horse has won 11 from 15 in india including group 1's

what does that relate to? no idea really but previous indian raiders in dubai have won/ran well

jockey booking suggests ready to rock and roll

Soz horsey, been really busy today, so I never saw this in time.

The horse is 5/1 now, & you recommended it at 9/1, so unless you tell me otherwise, it is no longer a bet.

Hope you got plenty on at 9/1, & it trots up like a Chompy good thing.

powderpuff paddy decided that despite bothering to be the only firm to price up meydan so early they did not want to back there opinion by laying more than £4 eway

the current price? no appeal really the element of doubt of how fit/good the horse is now not really built in our favour looks about the right price to me if anything a little short

[maldini32]

Guardiola to Bayern on 3 yr deal

Shakes up a few long term manager markets!

Shocked by that, really. I had it in mind that Man Utd, with Sir Alex approaching his dotage, would not pass up the opportunity.

How wrong could I be?

A lad I worked with told me one of his mates who works for VC had a customer ring up trying to get £50k on Guardiola to be next Bayern manager. They only laid him 1, the info was good but didn't fancy having money tied up for whenever they decided to announce it.

My mate was dancing today!