Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Finally over the Seattle disappointment. Just for the record I never much liked Seattle, just thought they were a terrific bet.

Got a weather related one for sunday, it looks like a high probability of circa 20mph winds around game time. This is definitely enough to affect the pass game. Lots of Baltimore´s recent productivity on offence has been from Flacco long passes, he´ll find it hard to be accurate with long passes here. Brady no doubt will cope but there´ll be plenty of short passes underneath to Welker and Hernandez and the points line as a result looks a little high.

Suggest £44 on points under 51 Baltimore @ New England it´s 10/11 across the board.

Gotcha Kuku, thank you, that gets us off to the last Playoff Weekend nicely.

We got UNDER 51.5 points, Baltimore @ New England.

ON

Win
Single: Under (51.5) @ 10/11
1 line at £44.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £44.00
Potential returns: £84.00
No: O/23146337/0000243

 
Total stake: £44.00
Free bets voucher: £0.00
Total Cost: £44.00

Is this an argument for backing New England ATS then, if Flacco's biggest weapon (I stop short if calling it a Hail Mary, but if the ungloved hand fits...) is less frequently employed?

Brady is Brady.

Where should the spread line be, factoring in the weather?

[redarmi]

Possibly but you have the plus betting under that it is likely to close 49 or something.

[bobby1]

Tipping my hat to Tighty here.  I had not bet tonight but started watching the snooker with Selby 5-1 down to Bingham and getting crushed, but somehow he has the resolve to reel off 5 frames in a row to win 6-5.  Many sportsmen give up when they are up against it, but one must give huge credit to Selby here - what a warrior - great to watch.

Amazing temperament from Selby.

He's 9/2 and has Williams next

Willams/Stevens played out the lowest quality 10 frames I have seen from two top sixteens in years yesterday afternoon. Almost embarrassing to watch then struggle so

Trump is 3-1 favourite, but I am happy to be on Selby.

The snooker has been superb all week tho some of the shot selection coz the tables are playing like pool tables is crazy. Did you see the end of the Higgins game Rich, 51 in front and mad coz he had played a bad shot so just took on an blue into the middle instead of finding a spot to hide the white and put a colour safe.

It is almost like the players think If I leave the other guy half a chance on these tables he will pot it so I might as well try and pot everything instead.

[TL900]

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/basketball/us-basketball/nba-matches/Miami-Heat-At-Los-Angeles-Lakers-4719915.html

Something a little different on this game.

Dwight Howard has started to step up his game for the lakers in every department. They seem to have made adjustments to his points line, but I think the rebounds line is a little small.

In 2013 (5games) Howard is averaging 17 rebounds per game, this does include a big 26 rebound game but every game he has had 14 rebounds +.

The line for tonight is 13.5 rebounds vs a Miami side who are the 29th (out of 30) best rebounders in the league which means that Howard will be able to challenge and hopefully gather alot more than vs some other teams.

Another good thing is that Miami's defence is very good which means the Lakers shooters won't be able to get as good shots which will hopefully mean more rebound opportunities. It will also be a close game (one would imagine) so there is the possibility for overtime.

Really like this bet.

Suggest £50 @ 4/5 Dwight Howard O13.5 rebounds

[bobby1]

Greening out for the sake of it is not the ideal spot to put yourself in but at the other end of the scale all the talk of wasting equity is strange too. You are not wasting equity, you are exchanging some of it for cash because you have done a good job of finding value with the original bet. If you have backed something and you now think the price is right do you have to just blindly hold on to the whole bet?

I think a good maxim is don't gamble more than you can mentally afford to lose and that's not a bad thing to apply to trading good spots too if there is a big difference between the best result and the worst.

I played some of the MVG place position I had in the darts at the semi final stage, made him 1.3 and he was 1.26 but hand on heart tho would probably have traded it back at 1.26 if I had made him 1.22 myself because there will be plenty of times that I pitch something incorrectly and I wouldn't have gambled the amount riding on it at that moment if I was having a fresh bet on the match. So we are sitting on a pile of equity when we can lock in half the place amount for a small % of the actual place win and I am still playing for a decent amount more if he does win the semi. I am converting equity on one selection only into gtd cash on both results, I might have to pay a fraction more than I would like to release it tho.
.

Everyone's comfort level is different too. I don't mind admitting that in that spot I would have been sick to have left it all running at the semi stage holding such a good bet and got no return on what was a tremendous value bet.

Someone made a really good post earlier about the game having changed now Betfair is available and the whole 'giving equity away' just feels like an old fashioned view  imo that hasn't allowed for the new opportunities  ( and I don't mean that as an insult). It has opened up a whole new way of locking up money when you have called something right, without having to rely on the result, tho using the various instant cash out options will deffo not be the right way to hedge if you choose to do that.

[kukushkin88]

Finally over the Seattle disappointment. Just for the record I never much liked Seattle, just thought they were a terrific bet.

Got a weather related one for sunday, it looks like a high probability of circa 20mph winds around game time. This is definitely enough to affect the pass game. Lots of Baltimore´s recent productivity on offence has been from Flacco long passes, he´ll find it hard to be accurate with long passes here. Brady no doubt will cope but there´ll be plenty of short passes underneath to Welker and Hernandez and the points line as a result looks a little high.

Suggest £44 on points under 51 Baltimore @ New England it´s 10/11 across the board.

Gotcha Kuku, thank you, that gets us off to the last Playoff Weekend nicely.

We got UNDER 51.5 points, Baltimore @ New England.

ON

Win
Single: Under (51.5) @ 10/11
1 line at £44.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £44.00
Potential returns: £84.00
No: O/23146337/0000243

 
Total stake: £44.00
Free bets voucher: £0.00
Total Cost: £44.00

Is this an argument for backing New England ATS then, if Flacco's biggest weapon (I stop short if calling it a Hail Mary, but if the ungloved hand fits...) is less frequently employed?

Brady is Brady.

Where should the spread line be, factoring in the weather?

Yep, it´s a good point. I think Baltimore were probably a bet with no weather considerations. It does shift it to NE a bit but I think Baltimore will still run it pretty effectively and it´s just made it a no bet for me.

[Tal]

Is this a match likely to be won up front? Particularly NE's O-Line v Baltimore's D?

Or should we expect that to cancel out?

[BigAdz]

I'm gonna keep chipping away, and please have faith, it will all come good in the end.

Yesterday had a wager on, dare I say it, the Cheltenham Cross Country race.

I have been waiting some time for this horse to be put in this race and yesterday in The Weekender Gordon Elliot confirmed he was putting Chicago Grey in the race.

It has a tremendous Cheltenham pedigree on any ground better than good and firmer, winning twice and looking likely to win when falling, from 3 runs on that sort of ground. At his best he is pounds ahead of the best of the rest on chase form, he has the ideal racing style for the race(switched off and creep into the race), he has won the 4miler at a previous festival, so distance holds no fears, will probably have Paul Carberry on him-a master jockey for this type of animal, and best of all the race is usually run on the firmest part of the course. He has had a wind op and will have a single hurdle race before the main aim, this race.

Bet Victor went 20s last night, and I forgot to post, and its now 14s, but I firmly expect this horse to be close to favourite on the day, especially with Mr Elliots ability to pull of major touches.

Bet Victor are also non runner free bet, so even at 14s it looks great value.

£10 ew recomend.

[TightEnd]

Southampton sack Adkins!

Just when you think you've seen it all.....

[Tal]

^
What? Adkins sacked?!

^^
What? Ante post tip on the Cross Country? Anything for the FoxHunters?

[BigAdz]

^
What? Adkins sacked?!

^^
What? Ante post tip on the Cross Country? Anything for the FoxHunters?

I know, I know, but we also bet on cycling,basketball and even chess........

[Tal]

^
What? Adkins sacked?!

^^
What? Ante post tip on the Cross Country? Anything for the FoxHunters?

I know, I know, but we also bet on cycling,basketball and even chess........

Touché

We should get this in Latin on a crest: Wherever value is to be found

[Bad Beat]

 I'm not going to spend too much more time talking about greening-out because I think I have made my points. There has been a good debate, but I would like to pick up on a few points.

 At no stage did I suggest that you should never green out. My point was 100% that you should look at each trade as a seperate bet and consider whether to green out solely on the strength or otherwise of the new bet. I totally agree with Simon on the point that a major weakness of punters is that they run losses, even when offered a good chance to cut them, and they take profits, often when the price to do so is one they would never consider. In poker we all know players who eat like birds and shit like elephants. It is one of the best pieces of advice in poker to never quit a great game that you are comfortable and winning in but to end your tilty sessions in bad games that you are losing in quicker. I liked Red's point that I've never seen anyone make a suggestion to "red-out" ever. That says a lot about how punters think.

 While we are on poker I found myself criticising a guys play the other day (he had asked me to comment and give him advice). I told him he was way too tight around the bubble and with the stacks he had he should be taking advantage and building a stack to win the tournament. He told me he liked to lock up a cash and gamble after he made the money. He said it was alright for me to say that "with all my money". I asked him whether he thought long-term it would be better to play like a pro or not.

 I can't listen to people advising taking a profit ("you'll never go skint taking a profit"). It's the same reason I hate this stupid expression in horse-racing "back to lay". I have no problem backing a 40/1 shot in a race thinking it should run a little better than it's price suggests and I admit it would be very frustrating to see it go to evs and then lose. If I just put a lay up at evs and press keep and go to the pub what will happen?

 a. The horse will run like shit. I will lose my 40/1 bet and the evs will not get matched.

 b. It will run a great race and at one stage it will trade less than evs. I will get matched. Sometimes it will win and I'll win a little less but I'll still be happy. Sometimes it'll lose but I'll make a small profit and still be happy.

 Should I be happy though?...

[Ironside]

^
What? Adkins sacked?!

^^
What? Ante post tip on the Cross Country? Anything for the FoxHunters?

crazy

[anthonyl]

Southampton sack Adkins!

Just when you think you've seen it all.....

What a joke. He was never going to get them in top half this season nor next season, but surely end of season would have been more appropriate.

Reckon they could go down now.