Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

As someone that greens out(or attempts to) on nearly every bet, I see it from a different slant.

If I back a horse eg £50 @ 10-1, I will always lay the horse back at even money for my £50. It is effectively my way of backing each way, or easing that sinking feeling of looking a winner then getting nabbed on the line.

Invariably, not always, but if my horse looks anything like winning at any stage, it can easily go evs. This way even when the horse doesnt win I get my stake back. If it wins I effectively get my horse at a point lower, but tbh, I really dont think that I can honestly say if the horse was value at 10s, its not a bet at , if you get my drift.

Since I have used this approach, the P&L has looked a lot healthier. That said, I rarely back favourites or short prices so my methodology maybe works differently.

On the whole, the bets proposed ITT are small edges; "this is up at 10-1 but I make it an 8-1 shot" and generally more likely "this is a 6/4 shot up at 2-1". Fred's bet is then ≥ £50 so the lay becomes trickier because there's not much value room to play with.

Rapidly coming to the conclusion that my little knowledge is a dangerous thing

[atdc21]

I don't have any figures but would be surprised if backing every horse that hits 1.3 IR to level stakes would show a profit in the long term. A lot of horses go odds-on IR and don't win.

so laying off at 1.3 is in effect a winning bet, you are letting someone bet at 1.3 with you and not only do you not have a liability with the bet, you win money.

[The Camel]

As someone that greens out(or attempts to) on nearly every bet, I see it from a different slant.

If I back a horse eg £50 @ 10-1, I will always lay the horse back at even money for my £50. It is effectively my way of backing each way, or easing that sinking feeling of looking a winner then getting nabbed on the line.

Invariably, not always, but if my horse looks anything like winning at any stage, it can easily go evs. This way even when the horse doesnt win I get my stake back. If it wins I effectively get my horse at a point lower, but tbh, I really dont think that I can honestly say if the horse was value at 10s, its not a bet at , if you get my drift.

Since I have used this approach, the P&L has looked a lot healthier. That said, I rarely back favourites or short prices so my methodology maybe works differently.

The problem with your approach is, as Neil said, is that you only get matched for the in running bet if the evens is value.

You are pissing equity up against the wall.

All the times your 10/1 doesn't trade at evens, you lose your £50.

Over 50% of the time you lay evens and the horse wins, you lose £50 of your winnings.

This cannot be a profitable strategy.

[DungBeetle]

I'm having a buy of Wood goal mins if the Leicester game goes ahead.  Like the upside profile on that one given his recent outings.

In disagreement with others I expect Leicester to win this one comfortably.

[DungBeetle]

Trump really was dreadful wasn't he?  He barely got through against Hawkins in the first round and then anihilated by Dott.

[doubleup]

I don't have any figures but would be surprised if backing every horse that hits 1.3 IR to level stakes would show a profit in the long term. A lot of horses go odds-on IR and don't win.

so laying off at 1.3 is in effect a winning bet, you are letting someone bet at 1.3 with you and not only do you not have a liability with the bet, you win money.

I do have some figures


16184 horses started at an sp of greater than 2 and were <1.3 at some point in running

12966 of these won so you would pay out 3889 and take in 3218.  Thats a big loss even before commission.

[Chompy]

I don't have any figures but would be surprised if backing every horse that hits 1.3 IR to level stakes would show a profit in the long term. A lot of horses go odds-on IR and don't win.

so laying off at 1.3 is in effect a winning bet, you are letting someone bet at 1.3 with you and not only do you not have a liability with the bet, you win money.

I do have some figures


16184 horses started at an sp of greater than 2 and were <1.3 at some point in running

12966 of these won so you would pay out 3889 and take in 3218.  Thats a big loss even before commission.

Probably not a good idea then...

I hereby give permission for the Rylan bet to be greened up upon as long as Mr Camel and Mr B.Beat say it's ok.

[atdc21]

Hi Camel,
If the 10/1 shot doesnt go evens you lose the stake regardless if you tried to lay it off or not. the horse lost, lay off punter loses non lay off punter loses.
also just because you lay at evens doesnt mean 50% the horse wins 50% it loses, its just the price you are laying at/someone else taking the price, its a very fast volatile market, dont overestimate the skill of a big percentage of punters ability, loads of times people put in wrong odds back wrong horses, even get bet and lay wrong way around,let alone work out the actual price something should be,(even if you can people view arce unfolding in different ways)
BUT of course in an ideal perfect world laying bets off that would alwaays win would not be profitable,.

[The Camel]

I'm having a buy of Wood goal mins if the Leicester game goes ahead.  Like the upside profile on that one given his recent outings.

In disagreement with others I expect Leicester to win this one comfortably.

28-31 with Sporting.

Looks very very high to me, I could only sell.

The world knows he's in blazing hot form, and Sporting will have priced this as high as possible to make buyers pay the maximum premium.

I'd rather get with Nugent in the same market (assuming he starts).

[The Camel]

Hi Camel,
If the 10/1 shot doesnt go evens you lose the stake regardless if you tried to lay it off or not. the horse lost, lay off punter loses non lay off punter loses.
also just because you lay at evens doesnt mean 50% the horse wins 50% it loses, its just the price you are laying at/someone else taking the price, its a very fast volatile market, dont overestimate the skill of a big percentage of punters ability, loads of times people put in wrong odds back wrong horses, even get bet and lay wrong way around,let alone work out the actual price something should be,(even if you can people view arce unfolding in different ways)
BUT of course in an ideal perfect world laying bets off that would alwaays win would not be profitable,.

Definitely more than 50% of bets laid at evens will win.

I guarantee if you have a bet on a horse in running matched at evens (having put it it up pre race blind), you have laid a bad bet.

Otherwise why not just lay evens about every horse in every race?

[atdc21]

good news is im now over 300 posts with all this greening talk, so i can hedge a few bets on some of you guys

[bookiebasher]

Leics 9-2 with Stan James for championship. Stan the biggest price plus the only

firm going 1-4 odds first 3. To me this looks a bet to nothing because cannot see Leics

being out of first 3. Thoughts anyone ?

[atdc21]

Hi again Camel, would be interesting to see figures.
i did mess about putting in those type lays at all sorts of prices when first came out, trouble is unless you do it all time evry race etc never know where you are and profit margins are small, i like a punt on bigger price stuff usually, im only small fry stakes but love horse racing, good luck.

[DungBeetle]

"28-31 with Sporting.
Looks very very high to me, I could only sell."

You are of course correct Camel.  Unfortunately I am a mug when I come to spread bets, so I just want to buy at £3 and get a bit of adrenaline in exchange for my £90.  I hang my head in shame considering the wise heads on this thread, but for some reason on spreads I see it as a simple transaction of cash in exchange for adrenaline.  For some reason fixed odds doesn't have this irrational impact on me.  

[The Camel]

Hi again Camel, would be interesting to see figures.
i did mess about putting in those type lays at all sorts of prices when first came out, trouble is unless you do it all time evry race etc never know where you are and profit margins are small, i like a punt on bigger price stuff usually, im only small fry stakes but love horse racing, good luck.

It's one of those cases where I don't have too see the figures.

Putting a bet up pre race as a keep, is always going to be a losing strategy.

You'll get matched only if you're giving away value.

It's like playing roulette, sometimes you'll win even though you are having a bad bet.

Believe me, over the long run you have absolutely no chance of winning.