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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16370675 times)
scotty2hatty
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« Reply #26955 on: January 19, 2013, 09:03:24 AM »

On the Bisping bet btw Scotty. Hopefully it is going to be one of those I forget about and then in about a months time when I randomly open up Ladbrokes I will be like whats those hundreds of pounds doing there. And that day would be a good day. No pressure.

It is, of course, a little speculative as I don't really like predicting an exact round, unless it is the first but the make-up of the fight means it's worth a go at the prices.
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tikay
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« Reply #26956 on: January 19, 2013, 09:04:38 AM »

Daily Report as @ 0850, Saturday January 19th

There have been no completed bets in the last 48 hours, so it is as you were, Mother.

My workload this week has taken my off off the Fred ball, & we made history yesterday by NOT backing a Tighty Tip, which duly obliged, albeit it needed a touch of good fortune.

We have quite a big weekend lined up.

In Sunday's NFL, we have.....

UNDER 51.5 points in the Ravens @ Patriots thing, £44 @ 10/11.

49-ers at Falcons, Falcons Longest Field Goal, £50 @ Evens.

Our 49-ers bet requires them to win on Sunday, as we have £250 @ approx 7/1 for them to win SuperBowl. It has not yet been decided whether we will take some insurance on this. It is our biggest ever bet, & if it got home, it would be our biggest ever win.

To get that in context, over the past 11.5 months we have made a TOTAL profit of £550, for an ROI of 1.43%. Lose the lot, & both those numbers will halve, win the lot both those numbers will treble. Just shows how sample size can distort. As Superbowl takes place 2 days after Fred's 1st Birthday, it would be quite a celebration if it won.
« Last Edit: January 19, 2013, 09:06:12 AM by tikay » Logged

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« Reply #26957 on: January 19, 2013, 09:15:20 AM »

UFC on FX 7 comes to us from Brazil this Saturday with the main event seeing the top British MMA fighter Michael "The Count" Bisping square off against Vitor "The Phenom" Belfort. Huge incentive for Bisping, with a win almost certainly earning him a shot at the best fighter in the World, Anderson "The Spider" Silva. I'm proper excited for this one, ahead of me seeing a live UFC event for the 6th time at Wembley Arena in February.

The bookies have this down as a "pick-em" fight with even money available for each man and it is an interesting fight stats-wise, giving us an opportunity to place some favourable bets. Belfort is a beast. Or let me re-phrase that. Belfort is a beast in the 1st round. He has had 16 career UFC fights and in the fights that have finished inside a round he is 10-1, with the sole loss coming at the hands of the champion, Silva. Staggering statistic. Interestingly, and the main stat I am going to play on is that in the 5 UFC fights he has had that have went past the first round he is 0-5. Obviously naive to say that every time he goes past the first round he is going to lose but there are other factors to support us in this particular fight.

He is fighting Michael Bisping, a reknowned cardio king, who seems like he can fight for ten rounds (this is a 5-rounder) and this is obviously a key factor if a longer fight is a negative for Belfort. Bisping has only ever lost 4 times and 3 of those were close decisions. So only one KO loss. Although it was a monster KO by Dan Henderson. Bisping's name has also found its way onto the top ten list for strike defence with a 70% success rate which I think is a useful statistic here as he is more likely to avoid the opening barrage that Belfort is known for.

The significant strikes landed statistics are often scoffed at as the definition of a significant strike isn't always clear but I think they can be useful and can also relate to the total strikes landed. Bisping will outland Belfort in this fight once he settles, that is for sure. Belfort lands 1.35 signifcant strikes per minute, whilst Bisping lands a much more favourable 4.57 which places him just outside the UFC's top ten. Belfort infact actually gets hit with more strikes than he lands, he absorbs over 2 significant strikes per minute.

Basically, every man and his dog is either tipping Belfort in the 1st round (9/2 Bet365) or Bisping to win on points (5/2 General). I can see Bisping having to deal with a couple of ropey moments early before controlling the rest of the fight by winning all areas of the game: outstriking Belfort, putting him against the cage and landing strikes, and even mixing in the odd takedown if he finds it necessary. Belfort is a big guy and I can't see his body lasting the entire fight. The question is whether Bisping can put him away as he doesn't have the heaviest hands, I think he might just do that late on with pure volume of punches.

People should likely team into the 5/2 Bisping on points as I think it's the most likely scenario but I'm going to offer up Michael Bisping to win in the 5th round @ 22/1 with Ladbrokes. As low as 11/1 elsewhere, I think it's the best alternative to the Bisping on points bet when all things are considered. Belfort fans should get involved in the 9/2 1st round win.

As a side note, they had a minor scuffle at the presser.....





Morning Scotty.

That is a beautifully constructed suggestion, thanks.

We have had the 22/1, for a fiver, (Ladbrokes), Bisping to win in the 5th round, 22/1.

And Bisping to win on points, £20 @ 2/1, (5/2 had gone) Ladbrokes.   

If you do not want that second bet, Bet, it will be credited or debited to me, it's your choice.

ON

0000242 Single (To win) 1 £5.00  Michael Bisping v Vitor Belfort Round betting  Michael Bisping - Round 5  22/1
Selection2/1 - Michael Bisping - Points

_____________

MarketMethod of Victory
 Your bets (1) Single - Michael Bisping - Points
1 line at £20.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
Potential Return: £60.00
Time: 19/01/13 09:02
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000243
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« Reply #26958 on: January 19, 2013, 09:59:57 AM »

Glad you're happy to place the bet Tikay. Hope we get a sweat and Belfort doesn't win in the 1st!!!

I've a slight issue with the 2/1 Bisping on points though as that is the worst price available, lots of 5/2 about. I guess in a sense I should say I don't want my name against a bet that has taken the worst of the prices but meh, let it ride.
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« Reply #26959 on: January 19, 2013, 10:01:32 AM »

Glad you're happy to place the bet Tikay. Hope we get a sweat and Belfort doesn't win in the 1st!!!

I've a slight issue with the 2/1 Bisping on points though as that is the worst price available, lots of 5/2 about. I guess in a sense I should say I don't want my name against a bet that has taken the worst of the prices but meh, let it ride.

Bugger!

Sorry, I wondered if I should check Oddschecker, but I took a chance & hoped it was Best Price. Ugh.

The Points Victory bet (£20 @ 2/1) I will take as owned by me, it is unfair for you to hold it under the circumstances.

I'll put it in my Misclick File, which I was reminded about yesterday. Bit unfair really, there are only 212 of them.   
« Last Edit: January 19, 2013, 10:03:41 AM by tikay » Logged

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« Reply #26960 on: January 19, 2013, 10:05:11 AM »

Murray is playing very well in Oz. However, I look at him at 9/4 and Fed at 5/1 and I can't get my head around it!

Skybet man says "Get on San Francisco at 2/1!" Fair to say I currently am sporting a smug face.
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« Reply #26961 on: January 19, 2013, 10:43:57 AM »

Murray is playing very well in Oz. However, I look at him at 9/4 and Fed at 5/1 and I can't get my head around it!

Skybet man says "Get on San Francisco at 2/1!" Fair to say I currently am sporting a smug face.

I think part of the basis of our Federer bet was that he would miss Murray. Which he will not, if both survive to the Semis.

We shall see soon enough.....
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« Reply #26962 on: January 19, 2013, 11:12:23 AM »

Looking for some input as to a possible bet on the football today.  Notts county at home vs Sheff UTD, is there any edge in betting Notts Co as they havent played a full game since New years day, will they be well rested or rusty?  They are playing a Sheff utd team who have only picked up 1 point in their last 3 games.  They are a top team but lost 2-0 last week to a good yeovil side, however 3 games ago they lost to Hartlepool at home 3-2, and we all know how bad hartlepool are.  Having said that, Notts have only won twice in their last 10 league games, drawing 3 and losing 5.  They have a home form that reads W4 L6 which isn't great, Sheff utds away form reads W6 L2, which is decent.

So i guess my main question is, does the no football since New years day give Notts county any edge or not?

Notts Co are available at 20/11 for the win, Draw is 5/2 and Sheff Utd win is 17/10

Draw no bet on Notts Co is best prices at 37/40 on betvictor.


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« Reply #26963 on: January 19, 2013, 11:20:28 AM »

Saved ourselves some money by not backing the ODI runs anyway. All hail 6am weekend starts, our time.....Ther groundsman was probably right, too. Nice bouncy true pitch, but bad batting, good bowling and a decision or two would have cost us
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« Reply #26964 on: January 19, 2013, 11:27:30 AM »

Quote
Looking for some input as to a possible bet on the football today.  Notts county at home vs Sheff UTD, is there any edge in betting Notts Co as they havent played a full game since New years day, will they be well rested or rusty?  They are playing a Sheff utd team who have only picked up 1 point in their last 3 games.  They are a top team but lost 2-0 last week to a good yeovil side, however 3 games ago they lost to Hartlepool at home 3-2, and we all know how bad hartlepool are.  Having said that, Notts have only won twice in their last 10 league games, drawing 3 and losing 5.  They have a home form that reads W4  L6 which isn't great, Sheff utds away form reads W6 L2, which is decent.

So i guess my main question is, does the no football since New years day give Notts county any edge or not?

Notts Co are available at 20/11 for the win, Draw is 5/2 and Sheff Utd win is 17/10

Draw no bet on Notts Co is best prices at 37/40 on betvictor.
After the Hartlepool game they drew 2-2 at Doncaster,and were truly awful,mugging us for a point when we had a guy harshly sent off after 75 mins. Dont know anything about Notts Co.
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« Reply #26965 on: January 19, 2013, 11:37:53 AM »

Morning Mr T. The final round of Heineken Cup takes place today. In France there is a top of the table clash where Toulon, who are already through, travel to Montpellier who can join them if they win. Toulon are the better team and concede very few points, and coupled with the forecast rain this looks like being a very tight and cagey game. If not backing dodgy French teams away from home is one maxim then watching 2 Frenchies batter each other is another. If they had a market for a sending off I would be backing it.

Suggest £24 under 36.5 points @ 5/6 with Paddy Power.
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« Reply #26966 on: January 19, 2013, 11:42:03 AM »

Morning Mr T. The final round of Heineken Cup takes place today. In France there is a top of the table clash where Toulon, who are already through, travel to Montpellier who can join them if they win. Toulon are the better team and concede very few points, and coupled with the forecast rain this looks like being a very tight and cagey game. If not backing dodgy French teams away from home is one maxim then watching 2 Frenchies batter each other is another. If they had a market for a sending off I would be backing it.

Suggest £24 under 36.5 points @ 5/6 with Paddy Power.

Hello hector

looking at conditions everywhere,and having perused the friday night games (Biarritz v Quins might have been played in flippers and snorkel masks, I think)

unders everywhere (bar the really one sided match ups) today has to be the call yes?

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« Reply #26967 on: January 19, 2013, 11:47:02 AM »

Quote
Looking for some input as to a possible bet on the football today.  Notts county at home vs Sheff UTD, is there any edge in betting Notts Co as they havent played a full game since New years day, will they be well rested or rusty?  They are playing a Sheff utd team who have only picked up 1 point in their last 3 games.  They are a top team but lost 2-0 last week to a good yeovil side, however 3 games ago they lost to Hartlepool at home 3-2, and we all know how bad hartlepool are.  Having said that, Notts have only won twice in their last 10 league games, drawing 3 and losing 5.  They have a home form that reads W4  L6 which isn't great, Sheff utds away form reads W6 L2, which is decent.

So i guess my main question is, does the no football since New years day give Notts county any edge or not?

Notts Co are available at 20/11 for the win, Draw is 5/2 and Sheff Utd win is 17/10

Draw no bet on Notts Co is best prices at 37/40 on betvictor.
After the Hartlepool game they drew 2-2 at Doncaster,and were truly awful,mugging us for a point when we had a guy harshly sent off after 75 mins. Dont know anything about Notts Co.


bobby1 is the Sheff U expert but I have been following Notts C. The Chairman has been busy cutting the budget, complaining about crowd numbers, local support etc

Since the 2-1 home defeat to MK Dons, their last game Chris Iwelumo, Carl Regan, Tom Williams, Lee Hughes, Jordan Stewart and Damion Stewart have all left the club. Don't think anyone has come in

Of these, Iwelumo and Hughes are amongst the highest earners, and I doubt Keith Curle would have wanted to lose both

Whilst Sheff U are out of form, and particular missing Miller up top I gather (the complaint has been a lack of firepower to win games, hence a lot of low scoring matches) I'd be a bit worried about

a) the conditions making it more of a lottery than a tight game might already be

b) what exactly is the mood in the Magpie camp?


Just looks a very trappy game to me  
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« Reply #26968 on: January 19, 2013, 11:48:31 AM »

Morning Mr T. The final round of Heineken Cup takes place today. In France there is a top of the table clash where Toulon, who are already through, travel to Montpellier who can join them if they win. Toulon are the better team and concede very few points, and coupled with the forecast rain this looks like being a very tight and cagey game. If not backing dodgy French teams away from home is one maxim then watching 2 Frenchies batter each other is another. If they had a market for a sending off I would be backing it.

Suggest £24 under 36.5 points @ 5/6 with Paddy Power.

Hi Hector, love your tips, always well reasoned and explained.
William Hill can accommodate you for sending off...
Will There Be A Red Card?
20/1 Yes
1/150 No
Best of luck!
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« Reply #26969 on: January 19, 2013, 11:54:15 AM »

Morning Mr T. The final round of Heineken Cup takes place today. In France there is a top of the table clash where Toulon, who are already through, travel to Montpellier who can join them if they win. Toulon are the better team and concede very few points, and coupled with the forecast rain this looks like being a very tight and cagey game. If not backing dodgy French teams away from home is one maxim then watching 2 Frenchies batter each other is another. If they had a market for a sending off I would be backing it.

Suggest £24 under 36.5 points @ 5/6 with Paddy Power.


Specifically hector

Castres v Ulster under 35.5 10/11

Castres only scored 69 points in 5 games

Ulster virtually qualified, need a conservative win. Won't be throwing it around

Current weather is wet, with 22mph winds

Got to be unders.
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