Tips for Tikay

[Bad Beat]

 I have noticed now that the Betfair market has moved while I was asleep and it's 4/7 vs 7/4. I'm not sure there is enough of an excuse for us to have a bet though.

 Taking us back to 1st principals of why are we having this bet? I think we have to assume that with two extremely high-profile players left in a massive tournament, who have played each other many times, there is zero chance that the market hasn't figured out who is best and what % of times they win if they play their best based on their overall record/head to head/the surface/the weather etc etc. Now you can look at things that effect this match specifically like desire (both the same), injuries (nothing here) etc. Now you can only have a bet if the market is out of whack. This can probably only happen due to favourite bias (bigger money bets the favourite - people backing the underdog bet smaller), will it mean that Djok will get smashed into 1.5 (probably not but worth looking for). It could happen due to recency (do people think Murray was a great win against Fed and overeact as Novak's win was a bit boring and it was ages ago (doesn't look like they have or Murray would be 2.5). It could skew to Novak because the market likes to oppose people who come off a 5-set against people off a 3-set (that might be happening slightly but not enough to go from our friend's "correct" price of 8/13.

 Sorry to do a Kevin Pullien and write 1000 words for a "no-bet" but I just thought I'd share my working as you used to get credit for this in maths.

[BigAdz]

Methinks Hector is slipping into the Adz need for a bet personna.

Thought Fred wanted well constructed value bets, as Mr C points out far more eloquently?

[Bad Beat]

 Adz has nailed it. Could have saved myself a few words. Much as I love a lot of Hector's suggestions, I don't think Fred needs interest bets in high-profile events where there is no clear pricing error.

 As a further general point, there is a slippery slope where you have a friendly pony on Murray because the thread likes him and Djok may have had a tough quarter final, but when you've really found a good bet in a little rugby game that the office junior at Ladbrokes had to price up, before he started on the trap challenge, and he forgot to ring the ground and ask about the weather, you just have £22 or £33 on.

 I would say have less Aussie Open bets, or just small ones if you really can't resist, and have double on your lovely rugby coups.

[tikay]

Methinks Hector is slipping into the Adz need for a bet personna.

Thought Fred wanted well constructed value bets, as Mr C points out far more eloquently?

Behind hector's apparent flimsy excuses usually lies excellent logic and well thought out bets, hence his ROI.

Neil, of course, makes his case persuasively, as always.

It is never easy for me when two of our most popular and respected regulars have a different view.

I will probably go out on a limb and back Murray, but first I must cogitate over a brace of Tesco custard tarts.

[Doobs]

7/4 tho and we missed my bet in the semis

[Bazzaboy]

Aydin v Soto Karass

Bet365 go 7/2 Aydin on points which is ool (12/5 biggest elsewhere). Karass has been stopped twice in 8 defeats including last time out against Maidana who bangs very hard, however he was competitive in that fight until he walked on to one. He is relatively limited but usually durable and managed to go the distance with Mike Jones twice. Aydin has stopped 17 of 23 but isn't a huge puncher. Recommend £20 if Bet365 will allow it.

[a.sparrow]

Looking at upcoming fixtures and see watford are playing mid week at bottom of the table Bristol city.  Watford are in red hot form right now, and although Bristol city got a result today I think a lot of people will be backing watford at 6/5.  I'd expect the price to fall a bit when it comes to game time. Watford are the leagues top away scorers, Bristol city are the have the leagues worst defence.

I backed watford today so obviously have a soft spot for them, fred didn't go for that bet though but went for the over 2.5 goals choice.  I think it's a little short here at 4/6 maybe, well not short but at that price it doesn't tickle my fancy.

Watford goals over 1.5 @ 5/6 I like @ bet365
Watford win at 6/5 I like @paddy power
Watford to score in both halves I like abit more at 15/8 @paddy power

Thoughts from blondes as to as to which bet if any suits fred are more than welcome.

[BigAdz]

For reasons of balance I feel I must

In the same way some horses when put in against inferior opposition never win as they would be expected to, ie 20 lengths hard held, is it not the same with great sportsman. You can't be up for every game, and looks to me like djoc has done the real biz when up against a worthy opponent, someone who has made him perform at his best.
Also if we are applying the djoc on won so well cos ferrer was knackered, should we not expect the same of Murray who has had less of a rest as well?


In other words, as an ardent Fred follower......please don't make me back Murray!

[tikay]

^^^^^

Ahh, a paid up member of the "we don't like Andy" club.

I was a member at one time, but his sheer ability and achievements, coupled with refreshing modesty and reality as to his abilities, has won me over.

Roll on Sir Andy, it is only a matter of time.

[tikay]

Aydin v Soto Karass

Bet365 go 7/2 Aydin on points which is ool (12/5 biggest elsewhere). Karass has been stopped twice in 8 defeats including last time out against Maidana who bangs very hard, however he was competitive in that fight until he walked on to one. He is relatively limited but usually durable and managed to go the distance with Mike Jones twice. Aydin has stopped 17 of 23 but isn't a huge puncher. Recommend £20 if Bet365 will allow it.

Is that tonight, Bazza?

[BigAdz]

I must confess to a get out large bet on him to be SPOTY this year, that eases the pain of each tourny victory, in a year with so little else going on.



Bet I stand by the reasoning, which is value!

[tikay]

Aydin v Soto Karass

Bet365 go 7/2 Aydin on points which is ool (12/5 biggest elsewhere). Karass has been stopped twice in 8 defeats including last time out against Maidana who bangs very hard, however he was competitive in that fight until he walked on to one. He is relatively limited but usually durable and managed to go the distance with Mike Jones twice. Aydin has stopped 17 of 23 but isn't a huge puncher. Recommend £20 if Bet365 will allow it.

Unfortunately, Bet365 restricted me to £2.86, and as you note, they are way ool, no other firm have a price anywhere near that.

It s really hard to predict what Bet365 will permit me, there seems no logic to it.

[Bazzaboy]

Aydin v Soto Karass

Bet365 go 7/2 Aydin on points which is ool (12/5 biggest elsewhere). Karass has been stopped twice in 8 defeats including last time out against Maidana who bangs very hard, however he was competitive in that fight until he walked on to one. He is relatively limited but usually durable and managed to go the distance with Mike Jones twice. Aydin has stopped 17 of 23 but isn't a huge puncher. Recommend £20 if Bet365 will allow it.

Is that tonight, Bazza?

Yeah kickoff about 3am.

[tikay]

^^^^

Best price I can get is 12/5, a long way shy of 7/2, see my previous post.

For those with a Bet365 account, I recommend you get on, Bazza has a great read on boxing stuff.

[Tal]

I've no idea really whether these Murray prices offer value, but I've not seen anything in this evening's posts that persusades me I should be delving into the Tal piggy bank* to bet on the man to become the first open era player to win his second major immediately after his first. Anything inside 2/1 suggests powder dry but stay patriotic.

I've wobbled, debated, hovered and fretted over a few of the markets for tomorrow's match and I've concluded I'm going to leave it be. I did vocalise my deliberations on the C'mon Andy thread, lest I bore everyone on here yet once more**.

Hope you win it all if you do back Mr Murray.


*This is figurative. It's a dinosaur.

**The irony of me posting this is not lost on me, no.