Tips for Tikay

[Bad Beat]

 I believe they had played no sets when I suggested no bet. I made a strong case for that and I think the reasons were good.

 When I bet Murray they had played 1 and a half sets. There was little time to explain my thinking as the prices move very quickly.

 I'm not sure if you are saying that once you have said there is no value at the start of an event you can never find value on it during the event. It sounds dangerously like after-timing to me.

 Imagine how much fun it is to watch an injured Andy Murray fall apart the second I backed him.

 Why did you wait until Djokovic won the second and third sets to make this point?

[tikay]

Shouldn't we be on longest field goal Baltimore Ravens?  Can get evens with Paddy Power.  I don't know if it is best as it isn't on odds checker.  Sorry, not got time to check around.

Can't remember the reasoning last time, but the Ravens kicker has much better stats than the 49ers one (30/33 vs 29/42).  He is also 4/4 from 50 yards +, 9ers man is 2/6 for the same stat.

FWIW I just spoke to someone who is on The Eagle at 20s (currently 1/4), must try harder.

Looks a fun bet to me, we are on.

We have £20 @ Evens, easily the besat price available.

£20 @ Evens, PaddyPower, Ravens to score Longest Field Goal, Superbowl.

ON

NFL Matches Baltimore Ravens At San Francisco 49ers
03-02-2013 23:30
Team to have Longest Field Goal
Baltimore Ravens @ evens
 
Your Bets Win
Single: Baltimore Ravens @ evens
1 line at £20.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
Potential returns: £40.00
No: O/23146337/0000251

 

[TightEnd]

Doobs, esteemed nicker of ROI, threads the world over.

grumps off......:-)

[tikay]

Doobs, esteemed nicker of ROI, threads the world over.

grumps off......:-)

Sorry Rich, had you already suggested that, or Is it because you were you planning to?

Gotta be quick out of the traps to beat Doobs.

[BigAdz]

I believe they had played no sets when I suggested no bet. I made a strong case for that and I think the reasons were good.

 When I bet Murray they had played 1 and a half sets. There was little time to explain my thinking as the prices move very quickly.

 I'm not sure if you are saying that once you have said there is no value at the start of an event you can never find value on it during the event. It sounds dangerously like after-timing to me.

 Imagine how much fun it is to watch an injured Andy Murray fall apart the second I backed him.

 Why did you wait until Djokovic won the second and third sets to make this point?

Apologies, no intention was meant Neil.

You said that you had bet him a while ago, which I took as being before the game. I agree that if he was 9/2 after the first set it looked a worthy bet.

Certainly no aftertiming, have been watching yesterdays Chelt meeting again, and missed the post, I thought I had genuinely missed a bet that repped value, and am trying to learn the maths so I can spot said errors going forward, rather than just using feel.

[TightEnd]

It was on list 2(c) for this week, following our win on the same in the Conference game

No worries, good luck Doobs

[tikay]

It was on list for this week, following our win on the same in the Conference game

No worries, good luck Doobs

Nothing to stop us pressing if you fancy another £20.

We are lucky to have so many experts here who are happy to share their thinking with the ice cream collective.

[Bad Beat]

 Apology accepted. He was 4-3 up in the second and at that time I felt it was a very big price.

 I am slightly on tilt as the second I backed him he changed from looking good to looking injured, knackered and fed-up and he seems to have lost every long rally, suffered a couple of net bobbles, made a few unforced errors on key points, been barracked by the crowd as he was serving a key point and was distracted by a feather.

  Suffice to say that all my betting is determined by: "what price do I make it now?" and thoughts of what I intended to do before and what bets I have already had carry zero relevance.

[tikay]

^^^^^

In short, nowency beats recency.

[BigAdz]

Apology accepted. He was 4-3 up in the second and at that time I felt it was a very big price.

 I am slightly on tilt as the second I backed him he changed from looking good to looking injured, knackered and fed-up and he seems to have lost every long rally, suffered a couple of net bobbles, made a few unforced errors on key points, been barracked by the crowd as he was serving a key point and was distracted by a feather.

  Suffice to say that all my betting is determined by: "what price do I make it now?" and thoughts of what I intended to do before and what bets I have already had carry zero relevance.

I sensed tilt in the reply,but genuinely was not aware of timings etc Neil, and also after Murray won first set, turned over soon after as looked a done deal the way Djoc was kicking balls etc.

Agreed, I will often back horses in running that I thought had little chance, then your eyes tell you a different tale in the moment. In running betting is a must for any sane punter

[Tal]

When was the last time Murray played a 4+ setter without breaking the villain's serve?

I don't know the answer BTW.

[Doobs]

It was on list for this week, following our win on the same in the Conference game

No worries, good luck Doobs

Nothing to stop us pressing if you fancy another £20.

We are lucky to have so many experts here who are happy to share their thinking with the ice cream collective.

If it is OOL, should punt bigger.  No harm in putting more down, so long as you credit it to me.




Only joking put it down to his grouchiness

[tikay]

It was on list for this week, following our win on the same in the Conference game

No worries, good luck Doobs

Nothing to stop us pressing if you fancy another £20.

We are lucky to have so many experts here who are happy to share their thinking with the ice cream collective.

If it is OOL, should punt bigger.  No harm in putting more down, so long as you credit it to me.




Only joking put it down to his grouchiness

Ha, His Grouchiness has no excuses now.

4 firms currently quote the Market, they go 4/5, 4/5, 5/6 & Evens. .....



http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/baltimore-ravens-at-san-francisco-49ers/to-score-longest-field-goal

[tikay]

Murray loses.

hector will find a Rugby Unders now to compensate. Nottingham v Bedford, (televised this afternoon) with the line at around 44.5, is my hunch.

[TightEnd]

It was on list for this week, following our win on the same in the Conference game

No worries, good luck Doobs

Nothing to stop us pressing if you fancy another £20.

We are lucky to have so many experts here who are happy to share their thinking with the ice cream collective.

If it is OOL, should punt bigger.  No harm in putting more down, so long as you credit it to me.




Only joking put it down to his grouchiness

Ha, His Grouchiness has no excuses now.

4 firms currently quote the Market, they go 4/5, 5/5, 6/6 & Evens. .....



http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/baltimore-ravens-at-san-francisco-49ers/to-score-longest-field-goal

double bubble please

PaddyPower need to be punished for their Ginster-ish mistake in setting an 8/11 shot at Evens again, especially after we took them out and kicked the Evens in the effective semi-final

Not a change Akers is evens in this longest field goal market