Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

January 2013 Figures

Closed bets: 81
Amount wagered: £2,261.65
Profit/loss: £122.85
ROI: 5.43%

Number of "sports" bet on: 11
Most popular:  Football (27), Rugby Union (14), American Football (13).
Most profitable: American Football (£329), Misc. (£105)
Least profitable: Basketball (-£162), Tennis (-£110).

Number of tipsters: 25 including 2 new tipsters.


Overall statistics (since February 2012)

Total closed bets: 1,065
Amount wagered: £38,219.53
Profit/loss: £504.55
ROI: 1.32%

Number of "sports" bet on: 27
Most popular:  Football (360), Golf (100), Cricket(92), Horses(78)

Most and least profitable sports (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
         
Sport   Total   Profit  Amt Bet   ROI   No.
RL   541.36   670.00   80.80   29
NFL   438.75   2,595.00   16.91   69
Football   433.39   12,589.45   3.44   360
...
Tennis   -276.18   1,056.35   -26.14   27
Formula1   -288.00   405.00   -71.11   14
Basketball   -940.56   2,450.00   -38.39   50


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=4


Total number of tipsters: 101


Number of different bookies/exchanges: 20

Most and least profitable bookies (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
         
Sport   Total   Profit  Amt Bet   ROI   No.
WilliamHill   518.64   2,768.00   18.74   80
BoyleSports   431.00   1,840.00   23.42   46
Bet365   334.53   1,880.11   17.79   63
...
Bwin   -241.30   919.00   -26.26   25
BetVictor   -320.09   5,232.00   -6.12   121
StanJames   -331.95   2,243.20   -14.80   52


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=7

Morning Mere,

Lovely stats, prompt as usual, thank you very much for those, & for doing such a grand job for the whole 12 months.

Decent numbers on Rugby League, NFL, & Football, not so much on a few others.

NFL has been a standout, we are well served by savvy guys here, a shame the Season is over after tomorrow. If the 9-ers can get the job done, the NFL ROI will be quite something, even allowing for whatever hedging arrangements we make. I'm inclined to hedge such that we win a bit either way, but biased towards the 9ers.   

[tikay]

No League Tables, & I know about sample size, da de da, but congratulations to a few of our regulars who have served us so well over the last 12 months.

Here's a handful, in alphabetical order.

Bad Beat, 35% over 16 bets.

Dubai, 14% over 46 bets.

Doobs, 80% ROI over 28 bets.

hector, 19% ROI over 146 bets.

horsey, 33% over 65 bets

Mere, 25% over 21 bets

singheeee, 27% over 21 bets

TheDazzler, 70% over 18 bets

Tighty, 9.5% over 120 bets.

As noted above, sample size distorts things, but most of you know how to interpret these numbers.

In cash terms, our biggest winner so far, with more than twice that of anyone else, is Doobs, who is well north of £800. BadBeat, Dubai, hector, horsey, Mere, TheDazzler & Tighty all contributed very substantial profits, too.

After tomorrow, if the 49ers get home, our thread starter might just whizz past everyone, hard-held, Piggott-style, looking over his shoulder.

Ignore their recommends at your peril.

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 1025, Saturday February 2nd                           


LOSS on Month = £20.00

Unsettled Bets  - £1,210.00




https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=19

[BigAdz]

Is it just me or is Ireland to win in the 6 Nations today at 2.3 a rather big price, with Wales out of form and with a few injuries etc?

Have to see what the lads say Spudy.

Logically, I hope you are right, as we have backed Ireland to win 6 nations outright, & Wales tro finish bottom.

So if Wales beat Ireland today, we revert to PLan B......

I don't mind backing Ireland today, but I need a view on "value".

I have backed it on the basis that this is one of the pivotal parts of the process described by Tighty. If the home advantage were reversed Ireland would be a massively strong favourite, and my only worry is the strength of home advantage stats, but not a worry enough that I have bothered to check them

[tikay]

6 Nations

This starts today, & we have a number of positions.

OUTRIGHT Winner, Ireland, £20 @ 9/2

WOODEN SPOON, Wales, £10 @ 20/1

Top Try Scorer, Tuiligi, £10 @ 16/1. (Absent today).

Scotland v England, Scotland +16, £150 @ 10/11.

Ireland to beat Wales today has been suggested, but awaits feedback.   

[tikay]

Is it just me or is Ireland to win in the 6 Nations today at 2.3 a rather big price, with Wales out of form and with a few injuries etc?

Have to see what the lads say Spudy.

Logically, I hope you are right, as we have backed Ireland to win 6 nations outright, & Wales tro finish bottom.

So if Wales beat Ireland today, we revert to PLan B......

I don't mind backing Ireland today, but I need a view on "value".

I have backed it on the basis that this is one of the pivotal parts of the process described by Tighty. If the home advantage were reversed Ireland would be a massively strong favourite, and my only worry is the strength of home advantage stats, but not a worry enough that I have bothered to check them

Exactly that.

[tikay]

Superbowl

I will set out our positions later today, after the Rugby, or tomorrow morning.

So far, we haqve 49ers to win, the colour of Destiny Child's outfit, & Ravens longest Field Goal.

Full details later, together with any greening processes that may take place.

[tikay]

I have been offline a day or two, so if I have missed any Recommends for today, please remind me.

If there is anything decent, we'll have a dabble, but we don't have to bet anything, or force a bet, as we have quite a chunk already invested for the weekend. We don't need to be compulsive gamblers & bet for the sake of it.

I think we have over £500 invested in Six Nations & Superbowl this weekend, so the "Outstanding Bets" figure will plunge by Monday, if nothing else.

[kukushkin88]

I´m on Ireland today. I suspect Wales have been put in too short due to them having been far away the best team in the six nations over the last 7-8 years. This year is very different though. No Gatland and lots of injuries. I made Ireland very marginal favourites here. Definitely a bet @ 13/10.

On the home advantage angle, much as historical information isn´t usually that relevant for things like this, Ireland do have a terrific record in Cardiff.

[tikay]

Morning TK,
I thought you had decided some time ago to ditch basketball as it was too hard am edge to make profitable. Is this a time to debate again?

I'm really not sure what our line should be on this.

We've done a shocking amount so far, but we usually beat the line.

One problem is that NBA bets often go up very late at night, so either no time for feedback & discussion, or I've already gone to bed, so I miss them, but at least others can get on. I quite enjoy the early morning sweat though!

One thing that strikes me on NBA is that we almost never bet Sub-Markets, though perhaps there are not any. We do well in "quirky" sub-markets on other Sports, but on NBA, we just bet the line, or Points.

Our current ROI is -38%, over 50 bets, for a net loss of nearly a bag. Given that our NBA standard bet is rarely more than £50 @ 10/11, it'll take some pulling back.

PS - Congrats on your very selective betting - 3 bets, £130 profit, & 130% ROI.

[tikay]

I´m on Ireland today. I suspect Wales have been put in too short due to them having been far away the best team in the six nations over the last 7-8 years. This year is very different though. No Gatland and lots of injuries. I made Ireland very marginal favourites here. Definitely a bet @ 13/10.

On the home advantage angle, much as historical information isn´t usually that relevant for things like this, Ireland do have a terrific record in Cardiff.

Thanks Kuku.

Looks like we are heading towards a bet, it has been recommended, & two positive feedbacks.

I need to try & remember who recommended it now, I think it was yesterday. Anyone know?

[tikay]

Looking ahead to Saturdays 6 nations, is there value in Ireland at 2.3 to beat Wales?

There it is.

[tikay]

Linked an article that I've written for UFC 156 tonight with some highlighted bets. It's for a general audience so is dumbed down and not very eye opening but it will at least give you some info if you want a bet tonight. One guy has 30 (of 36) career 1st round wins and is available at evens.

http://www.thefightlounge.co.uk/news/ufc-156-beat-the-bookmakers/

You write well, scotty, great stuff.

I'll have a look at that proposal for tonight later.

[horseplayer]

amazing i have such a decent roi over a decent ish sample size (on here) yet have had probably my worst year in five personally

sample size

[horseplayer]

Be interested if anybody else has some suggestions for nfl interest and any concessions the books are offering

I have so far taken thread advice and backed d walker 1st touchdown scorer and played over on his receiving yards *whatever that means*

I have also backed *Colin* 1st touchdown with the blue shape firm at 10-1 (as tal kindly pointed out they refund if somebody else scores first cant remember who)

made it my challenge to watch the whole thing through to cheer the thread bet home and having these small bets will probably help