Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Rich - please state an amount - it gives us a better idea of how strongly you feel about the recommend.

On the face of it, the price looks good.

£50 to win £55 etc.

I'm aware its a "perfect knowledge" market, I am not writing anything that anyone else does not know

I merely priced it up mentally before I looked at the market, and was pleasantly surprised to see odds-against

This looks bad to me.  I expect it will be cagey in the first leg and it doesn't look much of a price if it was a one off match.  I'd happily lay it.

[tikay]

For those interested, & to aid the discussion, the Arsenal - Bayern prices are.....


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/arsenal-v-bayern-munich/winner


Arsenal 3/1 at home, ooooohhhh.

[Doobs]

Ooh it is shorter than that on Betfair,so I have laid.

If it is shorter on Betfair then it can't be as bad as I thought.   Meh.  Dunno

[TightEnd]

I missed a bet at the weekend in the cricket

England went into the first ODI cricket under-cooked with no warm up game for the five players who did not play the T20s, and NZ won at 13/8.
I had NZ written down.

The problem is the time zones are not condusive to getting on "live" for the thread

Second ODI is at Napier tomorrow


1st Innings scores in Napier ODIs since England last visited

340 tied in 2008 England


293
273
336
275
262
230
373

Would expect England to be much better, and win. No value at 4/6 though.

There is no betfair market up for team runs. As you can see from the list above, the temptation is go high-scoring

[doubleup]

Ralph.

The Betfair price has dropped, but Ladbrokes go 12/1.

They offer half odds 1/2, or quarter odds 1,2,3,4.

Win, EW, and if EW, quarter or half odds?

I would expect a good run for our money at 12/1.

I favour a win bet with the greengage option always available on betty if neccessary.

I personally think most golf bets should include a plan for some greening out later in the week, so much happens last day, as shown Sunday that at least getting a freeroll out of it should always be the plan

Yup, you make a good point.

I'm still learning all this stuff.

This is a match play event - think most stuff happens on the first day  

Scwartzel looks good at 6-1 to win his bracket with stan james and sky - he is 5-1 on betfair on a slightly illiquid market but can be laid for a small amount at 5.6-1.   He's playing very well and as has been commented Rory is suspect atm.

 

[tikay]

Ralph.

The Betfair price has dropped, but Ladbrokes go 12/1.

They offer half odds 1/2, or quarter odds 1,2,3,4.

Win, EW, and if EW, quarter or half odds?

I would expect a good run for our money at 12/1.

I favour a win bet with the greengage option always available on betty if neccessary.

I personally think most golf bets should include a plan for some greening out later in the week, so much happens last day, as shown Sunday that at least getting a freeroll out of it should always be the plan

Yup, you make a good point.

I'm still learning all this stuff.

This is a match play event - think most stuff happens on the first day  

Scwartzel looks good at 6-1 to win his bracket with stan james and sky - he is 5-1 on betfair on a slightly illiquid market but can be laid for a small amount at 5.6-1.   He's playing very well and as has been commented Rory is suspect atm.

 

Thanks Mr 2xUp.

Unforch, I'm persona non grata with both Stan James & SkyBet.

[tikay]

I'm quite keen on Tiger this week in the Accenture World Match-play thingy.

His swing looked very good to me in the event that he played in the US, as good as I've seen it in seven or eight years and he loves match-play. I think this might be the first time in ages that he's gone into one of these events fully fit and firing on all cylinders.

I managed to get matched @ 13.5 on betty but still like the look of 13.

Happy for you to receive more feedback from the golfing gurus first but I would recommend a medium-sized wager @13.

Morning Ralph, & thanks.

We have duly dabbled.

We had £25 @ 13.5, Betfair, Tiger Woods to win the Accenture Matchplay.

ON

Group B / WGC Accenture Match Play 2013 / Winner   Tiger Woods Back 25275972234  18-Feb-13
20:20    13.5 25.00  13.5 18-Feb-13 20:20 

[Karabiner]

I like Schwartzel too but so it seems do many others and @ 20/1 feels short enough.

I would have had him as my second string if I could have got 25/1.

Don't fancy Rory at all especially if he's using his Nike putter which he has struggled with.

Good point by doubleup about these match-play events, they seem to get less interesting as they progress with most of the decent action in the first couple of rounds.

[hummuspie]

I know most will be looking at the Arsenal game tonight but I have spotted something on Porto/Malaga game tonight.

Porto corners double result is 4/5 with WH (to win most corners at and FT).  I think this price is out of line and should be much shorter something like 8/15.

Malaga will be keen not to concede and try to nick one on the counter and we can almost see Porto being camped in the Malaga half tonight, they will want to go to Spain with a lead intact.  Can't really see Malaga offering much attacking threat going forward.

FWIW, Malagas last 2 away games in CL against Zenit and Milan had 12-2 to Zenit and 11-1 to Milan   corner stats.

Suggest max bet Tikay

[tikay]

I know most will be looking at the Arsenal game tonight but I have spotted something on Porto/Malaga game tonight.

Porto corners double result is 4/5 with WH (to win most corners at and FT).  I think this price is out of line and should be much shorter something like 8/15.

Malaga will be keen not to concede and try to nick one on the counter and we can almost see Porto being camped in the Malaga half tonight, they will want to go to Spain with a lead intact.  Can't really see Malaga offering much attacking threat going forward.

FWIW, Malagas last 2 away games in CL against Zenit and Milan had 12-2 to Zenit and 11-1 to Milan   corner stats.

Suggest max bet Tikay

Thanks hummy.

Wowzer.

We very rarely have MAXES, & your sample sizes are extremely small, so I'd appreciate some feedback from the other lads. My immediate reaction is that you have found a very good bet indeed there.

I will Post some more stats on this shortly.....

For now - & we could increase it later - I've have had £50 @ 4/5, with Wm Hill, Porto/Malaga, /FT Corners, Porto/Porto.

ON

19 Feb 2013 - Porto v Malaga - Corners Double Result

Porto/Porto @ 4/5

Stake : £50.00
Estimated Returns : £90.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000266/F

[tikay]

Porto Malaga Corners.

I don't have many means to reserarch these properly, but, if it has any relevance, I have the Corner Stats for both Teams in their respective Leagues this season.

Porto, Superliga.

Porto average 8.2 corners per home game, their away opponents average 2.5.

Malaga, Primera

Malaga average 5.9 corners per away game, their (home) opponents average 8.1.


Sample size, da de da, but on the face of it, it looks pretty overwhelming. Doubtless someone will blast a hole in the theory shortly.

Anyway, we have had £50 so far, & we might have some more if the cap fits.

I'd be quite interested in horsey's view, he follows these quirky niche markets in Spain & Italy, though maybe not Portugal.

I must add I'm a little bisaed towards these cranky Sub-Markets, I was making a mint on them with Stan James, wweek after week, they take some finding but there are often a few ricks if we look hard enough.

[horseplayer]

half time full time corners is not a market i have ever looked at tikay

on the face of it the stats look good i have not got time today to do any more research

what i would say is the hills corner compiler is generally pretty good so why are they the only firm offering this market?

[tikay]

I missed a bet at the weekend in the cricket

England went into the first ODI cricket under-cooked with no warm up game for the five players who did not play the T20s, and NZ won at 13/8.
I had NZ written down.

The problem is the time zones are not condusive to getting on "live" for the thread

Second ODI is at Napier tomorrow


1st Innings scores in Napier ODIs since England last visited

340 tied in 2008 England


293
273
336
275
262
230
373

Would expect England to be much better, and win. No value at 4/6 though.

There is no betfair market up for team runs. As you can see from the list above, the temptation is go high-scoring

Nobody has the Market up, & Betfair have now Suspended the respective "Team Totals", too.

There are other ways of playing runs, I suppose, e.g., "will there be a fifty scored?" a several similar, but no "Match Total" Market, or not yet awhile.

I know what you mean by time difference, it makes these things, held so inconveniently in other parts of the globe, so damn awkward. It's an outrage really, all Sport should be played at UK-friendly times. Obv.

[tikay]

half time full time corners is not a market i have ever looked at tikay

on the face of it the stats look good i have not got time today to do any more research

what i would say is the hills corner compiler is generally pretty good so why are they the only firm offering this market?

OK, thanks anyway.

[hummuspie]

B365 generally offer corner match betting too but only a corners match bet market.

as far as i know, WH offer more markets including corner handicap betting