Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

B365 generally offer corner match betting too but only a corners match bet market.

as far as i know, WH offer more markets including corner handicap betting

I use Wm Hill a lot for Corner Markets, they seem to offer more variety than most. On a regular Televised game, they offer between 35 & 40 Corner Markets.

[horseplayer]

sorry i did not word that to well

this specific market is only offered by hills for this game

the over round looks to be about 130% whether there is any great value there hard to say

[LeedsRhodesy]

Oddschecker ‏@Oddschecker

The money continues for Bayern to beat Arsenal including a £100,000 bet at @BetVictor. Now best odds Evs http://bit.ly/U0ggf2  #Afcfcb
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how do people get £100k in a football game?

[vegaslover]

I like Schwartzel too but so it seems do many others and @ 20/1 feels short enough.

I would have had him as my second string if I could have got 25/1.

Don't fancy Rory at all especially if he's using his Nike putter which he has struggled with.

Good point by doubleup about these match-play events, they seem to get less interesting as they progress with most of the decent action in the first couple of rounds.

Indeed, if we are to find value for the outrights, it will be before the 1st round

[DungBeetle]

Zola talking to Watford Observer about resting the big guns again for tonight's game at Ipswich.  Sigh.

Make of that what you will from a betting perspective.

[tikay]

I'm quite keen on Tiger this week in the Accenture World Match-play thingy.

His swing looked very good to me in the event that he played in the US, as good as I've seen it in seven or eight years and he loves match-play. I think this might be the first time in ages that he's gone into one of these events fully fit and firing on all cylinders.

I managed to get matched @ 13.5 on betty but still like the look of 13.

Happy for you to receive more feedback from the golfing gurus first but I would recommend a medium-sized wager @13.

Think it is interesting one this week.  For me Rory makes the field.  He hasn't played much with these new clubs and when he did he stunk.  Tiger is playing well and could re-emerge this year as a clear world number one in which case this could look big for sure.  I like Kaymer at 40-1 e/w.  He has the right kind of temperament for these events and has finished runner up before.  I also think he is coming back into form.  He had a couple of decent top tens to start the season before putting in a bad start lto but he has never done well at that course so it doesn't concern me too much and he seems very confident in the interviews I have read.  He was world number one only 2 years ago and if he got back to anything like that form he would be a genuine 16/1 shot here.

Thanks reds.

I did say I had backed this last night on Betfair...........but.......well......as it turns out....I may have backed...., umm......Kuchar. Software error, obv, not my fault. Begins & end with the same letters, & same number of letters, see? There must be untold mileage in that theory.

Another for my off-thread Misclick File. 

Anyway, we have now had.....

£10 EW @ 40/1 (quarter, 1,2,3,4) Martin KAYMER.


ON

2013 WGC-Accenture Match Play
WGC-Accenture Match Play
2013-02-20 14:25:00
 
Market: Tournament winner (1/4 1,2,3,4) 
 
Selection: Martin Kaymer @ 40/1 
 
Receipt No.: O/142640973/0000261
 
Placed at: 12:39 19/02/2013
 
Bet Type: Single
 
Stake Per Line: £10.00
 
Number of lines: 2
 
Stake: £20.00
 
Tax: £0.00
 
Tax Rate: 0.00%
 
Total Paid: £20.00
 
£520.00
 
 

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 1305, Tuesday February 19th

PROFIT on Month = £496.32

Unsettled Bets  - £810.00



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=19

[moonandback]

Have a Bit of a Banzai for you Tikay, Gonzaga bulldogs to win NCAA basketball champs @ 33/1 with william Hills they are currently ranked 3rd in the nation but are 20th in the betting they are an excellent team who have only lost twice this year (once on a freak last second shot by Butler) they beat their big conference rival Saint Mary's last week away from home so confidence should be riding high price may not last long as they are 14's everywhere else. suggest £20 @33's win or E/W half odds first 2. completes early April.

[tikay]

Daily Report as @ 1305, Tuesday February 19th

We neither lost nor won yesterday, maybe because there were no completed bets.

I had a hankering for Doncaster last night, but fortunately, & sensibly, everyone ignored my transparent hints. Must be said, as we are on Donny for the League, I really liked their attitude & team ethic.

We seem to make most of our money by swerving bad bets, yesterday was no exception.

We've done no less than THREE horses today, at Sunny Southwell, & have a good few bob at risk. 3.25, 4.35 & 5.10pm.

Our Accenture book now has two horses, Woods & KAYMER. We may back one or two more if we can find the value.

Champions League returns this evening, we have a Corner bet in the Porto/Malaga affair, & are still dithering on the Arsenal/Bayern party. Mr Wenger seemed very confident in yesterday's Press conference, which went swimmingly well.

[doubleup]

Porto Malaga Corners.

I don't have many means to reserarch these properly, but, if it has any relevance, I have the Corner Stats for both Teams in their respective Leagues this season.

Porto, Superliga.

Porto average 8.2 corners per home game, their away opponents average 2.5.

Malaga, Primera

Malaga average 5.9 corners per away game, their (home) opponents average 8.1.

I know you've put the bet on but based on those stats it isn't a bet.  You are effectively putting on a double at 1.8 so you need both legs of the double to be about 74% chances.  To be a 74% chance the expected corner ratio should be 2-1 not 4 to 3 as above.

However, the good news is that simply based on the odds of the teams a ratio of about 3.4 - 1.9 could be expected and the tactical considerations outlined by the bet proposer might get it up to the required value.

 

[Doobs]

I know most will be looking at the Arsenal game tonight but I have spotted something on Porto/Malaga game tonight.

Porto corners double result is 4/5 with WH (to win most corners at and FT).  I think this price is out of line and should be much shorter something like 8/15.

Malaga will be keen not to concede and try to nick one on the counter and we can almost see Porto being camped in the Malaga half tonight, they will want to go to Spain with a lead intact.  Can't really see Malaga offering much attacking threat going forward.

FWIW, Malagas last 2 away games in CL against Zenit and Milan had 12-2 to Zenit and 11-1 to Milan   corner stats.

Suggest max bet Tikay

Thanks hummy.

Wowzer.

We very rarely have MAXES, & your sample sizes are extremely small, so I'd appreciate some feedback from the other lads. My immediate reaction is that you have found a very good bet indeed there.

I will Post some more stats on this shortly.....

For now - & we could increase it later - I've have had £50 @ 4/5, with Wm Hill, Porto/Malaga, /FT Corners, Porto/Porto.

ON

19 Feb 2013 - Porto v Malaga - Corners Double Result

Porto/Porto @ 4/5

Stake : £50.00
Estimated Returns : £90.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000266/F

Firstly I have never ever looked at this market previously.

Despite that, this looks like a really bad bet to me.  8/13 first half corners and 6/10 2nd half multiplied is 0.37 or about 13/8.  There is some minor related betting on the 2 results but you'd have to think the relationship was huge to think that betting at 4/5 is good.  

Unless somebody has done some big stats analysis on the relationship between first half/second half corners I think it is safe to assume Hills stats analysis is better than ours.

It is probably better betting in markets with better competition such as most corners in the match if we believe the odds setters are underestimating the gap between the teams.  If we don't do that just take the 8/13 and 6/10 on most in the first and most in the second respectively.  I am hoping these are best prices otherwise the bet is worse than I think.

Sorry

[kpnuts]

Doobs, I think the suggested bet is Porto to be ahead on corner count at both & FT, not to win both halves in corner supremacy.

[tikay]

2xUp & Doobsy.

Whoops!

Lesson noted, thanks lads.

I can now see the relationship.

No need for "sorry", it is all good feedback & learning material for many of us.

Hopefully, we'll get away with it this time.

[JoeBeevers]

I know most will be looking at the Arsenal game tonight but I have spotted something on Porto/Malaga game tonight.

Porto corners double result is 4/5 with WH (to win most corners at and FT).  I think this price is out of line and should be much shorter something like 8/15.

Malaga will be keen not to concede and try to nick one on the counter and we can almost see Porto being camped in the Malaga half tonight, they will want to go to Spain with a lead intact.  Can't really see Malaga offering much attacking threat going forward.

FWIW, Malagas last 2 away games in CL against Zenit and Milan had 12-2 to Zenit and 11-1 to Milan   corner stats.

Suggest max bet Tikay

Thanks hummy.

Wowzer.

We very rarely have MAXES, & your sample sizes are extremely small, so I'd appreciate some feedback from the other lads. My immediate reaction is that you have found a very good bet indeed there.

I will Post some more stats on this shortly.....

For now - & we could increase it later - I've have had £50 @ 4/5, with Wm Hill, Porto/Malaga, /FT Corners, Porto/Porto.

ON

19 Feb 2013 - Porto v Malaga - Corners Double Result

Porto/Porto @ 4/5

Stake : £50.00
Estimated Returns : £90.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000266/F

Firstly I have never ever looked at this market previously.

Despite that, this looks like a really bad bet to me.  8/13 first half corners and 6/10 2nd half multiplied is 0.37 or about 13/8.  There is some minor related betting on the 2 results but you'd have to think the relationship was huge to think that betting at 4/5 is good.  

Unless somebody has done some big stats analysis on the relationship between first half/second half corners I think it is safe to assume Hills stats analysis is better than ours.

It is probably better betting in markets with better competition such as most corners in the match if we believe the odds setters are underestimating the gap between the teams.  If we don't do that just take the 8/13 and 6/10 on most in the first and most in the second respectively.  I am hoping these are best prices otherwise the bet is worse than I think.

Sorry

I do not disagree with anything that anyone has said either for or against this bet except this 'There is some minor related betting on the 2 results but you'd have to think the relationship was huge to think that betting at 4/5 is good.'

The odds of 8/13 and 6/10 are two independent bets. The 4/5 -FT bet carries over any lead into the second half so if they are, for example, 2 corners up at half time they can actually lose (or draw) the second half and the bet is still a winner. That is not 'minor related' in my eyes ;-)

[kpnuts]

2xUp & Doobsy.

Whoops!

Lesson noted, thanks lads.

I can now see the relationship.

No need for "sorry", it is all good feedback & learning material for many of us.

Hopefully, we'll get away with it this time.

After rereading Doubleup & Doobs's posts about six times each, I think i'm learning too. Please ignore my above post, Doobs!