Tips for Tikay

[ripple11]

Boom!

Home & hosed.

Very well spotted horsey, thank you.

Some of us *might* have played on the spreads

coughcoughcough

Keep those cards coming.

lol  +1

[Tal]

Boom!

Home & hosed.

Very well spotted horsey, thank you.

Some of us *might* have played on the spreads

coughcoughcough

Keep those cards coming.

 

[aaron1867]

With Milan now winning 2-0, it seems Man Utd (in my view) is a big price at 9's.

They look to just be shading the Real Madrid match with home advantage and an away goal.

[The Camel]

Hurrah.

One little red in the 90th minute and we'll be eating chicken for tea tomorrow night.

[The Camel]

He was arguing like anything over that yellow.

Clear dissent Willie.

Are you a man or a mouse?

Get the red out.

[Karabiner]

Hurrah.

One little red in the 90th minute and we'll be eating chicken for tea tomorrow night.

Ostrich even..

[horseplayer]

i fancy a goal either way there before the 85th minute and we could have had the lot

[ripple11]

William Collum is an interesting scottish referee

The game between Galatasary and schalke tonight i will be watching anyway for obvious reasons, when i saw willie collum was in charge i perked up a bit more.

Here are the stats for the games involving the two sides this season in the champions league

4 5 7 2 6 4 gala

6 7 (1 sent off) 6 5 2 1 schalke

based on the above the mean cards per game in games between the two sides is 4.7 approx

Bet365 go evens over 4.5 cards tonight (were 11-10 yesterday) which i suggest a £20 bet (if fred can get on) for the purposes of this bet a yellow card is 1 and red card 2 points. The betfair market is very quiet but looks like it could settle at around 5-6 for over 4.5 there.

Now back onto the referee. William Collum is a bit of an all or nothing referee in european and international football (have ignored his scottish league stats for this) he averages 4.20 yellows per game and 0.38 red cards per game. So the line looks possibly a smidgen low based on everything so far.

If you just examine his stats in champions league games his average goes up to nearly 6 yellows per game (small sample size) he has also awarded 6 red cards in 13 champions league games.  I suggest he may just like the big occasion a little bit i will not go into his old firm history but suffice to say that backs the above up a little bit.

Unfourtantley the odds of a red card are only 3-1 tonight which can hardly be considered a bet anything above 5-1 i would have played at.

One final discovery is that he has awarded his first card very quickly in a lot of champions league games bet365 go evens first card of any kind upto and including the 30th minute this seems a fair bet suggest £30.

Personally i have bought the cards on the spreads tonight worse case scenario i see a small loss he could just go haywire though. The two teams are by no means dirty but the added factor of this being a probably tight game and being in the knockout stage all add some chances to more cards based on general stats.

Sorry for waffling

 

Brilliant analysis Horsey...thanks alot!

[The Camel]

Hat's off.

Could easily have made up 90 or 100.

He definitely bottled giving a red at the death.

[horseplayer]

yes you could see he wanted to deep down

them the breaks

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 0845, Thursday February 21st

PROFIT on Month = £529.62

Unsettled Bets  - £840.00


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=19

[tikay]

Santa Clara 42 - Gonzaga 85

Gonzaga Strolls Past Santa Clara

Gonzaga improves to 13-0 in conference with 85-42 win over Santa Clara

Gonzaga needs one more victory to claim at least a share of the WCC regular-season title it lost last season.

Santa Clara averages 75 points per game, and had not scored less than 60 points in a game all season.

It was easily the lowest scoring half of the season for the Broncos.

Gonzaga's only losses this season are to Illinois and at Butler. Their 26-2 start is the best since the 2003-04 team opened 28-2.

[Tal]

Would that be the Illinois Pellet Wagglers and the Butler Bus Conductors?

[tikay]

Daily Report as @ 0900, Thursday February 21st

We made a £34 profit yesterday.

Two bets, two winners, lovely.

It was a peculiar brace of bets, based on Bookings/Cards, & it was very odd to watch a game of football and want to see fouls & dissent, the exact opposite of my normal mindset.

Football has changed so much. My football team as a kid was Wolves, & my football hero was Billy Wright. Billy played 500 times for Wolves, & 105 times for England - & was never once booked or sent off. And he was a centre half.

Anyway, yesterday we needed 1 x yellow within 30 minutes, & 5 x Yellows (or equivelant) within 90 minutes, & there was never a moments doubt.

The research & analysis was absolutely spot on, too. Well done horsey. (+£34).

I love this thread when we get these sort of oddball bets, thoroughly researched, & half of blonde get on. I know that at least 10 regulars were on that bet yesterday.

Great stuff.

Elsewhere, Gonzaga continued their march to the whatever it is they are marching to. Fun ahoy.

In the Accenture Matchplay, THE weirdest thing happened. Play had commenced, & suddenly it snowed. Proper snow, settling snow. In Arizona.

We were on Woods (not yet started), & Kaymer (1 down) when play was abandoned. In the dream/nightmare scenario, Kuchar is three up.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Would that be the Illinois Pellet Wagglers and the Butler Bus Conductors?

Only in America.....