Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

France finally pick right rugby team shocker!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/21531218

7 changes from the two losses so far including Parra at SH, Trinh Duc at FH, Fofana into the Cente, Clerc a proper finisher on the wing,  a proper scrummaging loose head and a form back row

Interestingly, England play Lawes and Wood out of position in the pack giving France a chance of some superiority at the breakdown.

It was unfathomable to a lot of rugby fans to see, in particular, Parra left out. A superb goal kicking, tactical kicking scrum half. Michalak who was both dreadful and out of form has been replaced outside him too


Which brings me onto the idea

This is going to be a bruising game, and everyone expects England to win, and get to Cardiff with a chance of winning the Grand Slam

Not so fast. This one is going to be very tight. The two line ups are so similar in composition that they will cancel themselves out. 


You can get France+8 at Evens http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/england-v-france/handicaps

However I prefer France outright at 3-1 http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/england-v-france/winner 

The French coach is talking going for it. After all, they have nothing to lose.

""Let's be French: courageous, audacious, unpredictable," he added.

"It's always good when we're scared. We'll have to stick together and get ready for a great fight.

"We need to play our best game, try to be very well organised, be disciplined. It's not just by kicking and chasing that you can beat England.

"We need to play without the handbrake and be bold. For French rugby, it's better to be outsiders than favourites." "

At 3-1 they are decent value for a small bet (£20) to upset the Anglo-Saxon applecart

[Skippy]

There also now appears a decent chance that the UKIPT will beat Labour into 3rd

You've been working in poker too long.

[TightEnd]

Meanwhile, its all change elsewhere in the 6N

Italy have been struck a blow with the banning of Parisse their star No 8 for being rude to a referee in a club game
They host Wales, wo will expect to beat them but not at 2/7 thanks very much

Ireland, who need an England loss somewhere along the line please, to give us a chance of the 6N bet at 9/2 have been hit by injuries and suspensions

Cian Healy was banned for the stamp on Cole, Sexton is one of the key injury absences with D'Arcy and Zebo also out

They travel to Scotland at 8/11 best. I would want more than 6/4 to be backing Scotland, who are definitely improving in some areas. A team to be getting on the right side of though on a 12 month view.

[AlunB]

Courtney Lawes starting at 6 and Dylan Hartley and Manu back in the side for Eng v Fra in the six nations http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/21532526

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/england-v-france/will-there-be-a-sin-binning

A must bet surely Tighty?

Already on 

1/2 Paddy Power is, realistically, buying money

Fuller write up coming, but both teams have been picked to be as big, bruising, ugly and nasty as possible.

The refereee is Joubert from SA, where they interpret breakdowns, scrusm etc v differently than we do up here, increasing the scope for a Yellow

One of those 1/2 should be 1/10 jobbies, where we nicked a tenner for TfT in Dublin

 

Interestingly France are the least dirty team in the six nations with by far the fewest yellow cards. They conceded none in 2011 or 2012. Italy is the worst offender historically, with Wales the next worst. Last year and the year before Wales conceded four yellows.

Same market is 1/2 for Wales v Italy on Saturday, a game both teams will really badly want to win.

[redarmi]

Just looked at the eastleigh odds on betfair - libdem 1.27 wtf

This is most confusing really. The Tories have been friendless for a fortnight in this market

There also now appears a decent chance that the UKIPT will beat Labour into 3rd

So, the consensus is that Huhne, Vicky Pryce, Libs going into coalition with the Tories has little impact on the Lib vote here

but, The Tories ship votes tactically to the UKIPT as a protest


I won't be rushing into a by-election betting market again any time soon!

Meh - it was a good bet imo.

[TightEnd]

Just looked at the eastleigh odds on betfair - libdem 1.27 wtf

This is most confusing really. The Tories have been friendless for a fortnight in this market

There also now appears a decent chance that the UKIPT will beat Labour into 3rd

So, the consensus is that Huhne, Vicky Pryce, Libs going into coalition with the Tories has little impact on the Lib vote here

but, The Tories ship votes tactically to the UKIPT as a protest


I won't be rushing into a by-election betting market again any time soon!

Meh - it was a good bet imo.

I thought so

However, seems the micro stuff is important

http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/02/21/why-the-speccies-james-forsyth-thinks-the-eastleigh-lib-dems-are-a-racing-certainty/

[AlunB]

From the same place I got those stats

"During the 13 sin bin periods, the team with 15 players received no points benefit on nine occasions"

Someone tell Brian Moore ffs.

[Doobs]

Just looked at the eastleigh odds on betfair - libdem 1.27 wtf

This is most confusing really. The Tories have been friendless for a fortnight in this market

There also now appears a decent chance that the UKIPT will beat Labour into 3rd

So, the consensus is that Huhne, Vicky Pryce, Libs going into coalition with the Tories has little impact on the Lib vote here

but, The Tories ship votes tactically to the UKIPT as a protest


I won't be rushing into a by-election betting market again any time soon!

Meh - it was a good bet imo.

I thought so

However, seems the micro stuff is important

http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/02/21/why-the-speccies-james-forsyth-thinks-the-eastleigh-lib-dems-are-a-racing-certainty/

I was never keen on the UKIP bet, but though the Tory bet looked a good one at the time, but...

... she is stuck with the label the Conservative's Sarah Palin, and seems to have a talent for narrowing her voting base.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/feb/16/eastleigh-byelection-tories-maria-hutchings

[redarmi]

Just looked at the eastleigh odds on betfair - libdem 1.27 wtf

This is most confusing really. The Tories have been friendless for a fortnight in this market

There also now appears a decent chance that the UKIPT will beat Labour into 3rd

So, the consensus is that Huhne, Vicky Pryce, Libs going into coalition with the Tories has little impact on the Lib vote here

but, The Tories ship votes tactically to the UKIPT as a protest


I won't be rushing into a by-election betting market again any time soon!

Meh - it was a good bet imo.

I thought so

However, seems the micro stuff is important

http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/02/21/why-the-speccies-james-forsyth-thinks-the-eastleigh-lib-dems-are-a-racing-certainty/

I find it absolutely incredible, if that is true, that the Tories are so incredibly badly organised.  Having worked elections for the Labour Party we had that kind of intelligence in 1997.  This is a long time marginal seat and the Tories have had the benefit recently of Lord Ashcrofts money in marginal seats so if they don't have at least equally good databases then it is really quite stunning they managed to be the biggest party at the last election.  Obviously the Liberals have the benefit of holding the seat and are somewhat popular locally but the reasons for the by-election and the national state of the parties should have been enough to give the Tories a very good shot here.  I think they made an error with their candidate and have made a few fairly fundamental errors but we could never have known that when we bet and you are always gambling on the publics view of how the Huhne scandal reflected on the party and we possibly overestimated that given it wasnt party political but I would have the same bet again tomorrow.

[doubleup]

Just looked at the eastleigh odds on betfair - libdem 1.27 wtf

This is most confusing really. The Tories have been friendless for a fortnight in this market

There also now appears a decent chance that the UKIPT will beat Labour into 3rd

So, the consensus is that Huhne, Vicky Pryce, Libs going into coalition with the Tories has little impact on the Lib vote here

but, The Tories ship votes tactically to the UKIPT as a protest


I won't be rushing into a by-election betting market again any time soon!

Meh - it was a good bet imo.

I thought so

However, seems the micro stuff is important

http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/02/21/why-the-speccies-james-forsyth-thinks-the-eastleigh-lib-dems-are-a-racing-certainty/

I was never keen on the UKIP bet, but though the Tory bet looked a good one at the time, but...

... she is stuck with the label the Conservative's Sarah Palin, and seems to have a talent for narrowing her voting base.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/feb/16/eastleigh-byelection-tories-maria-hutchings

She was the candidate at the last election - if you back Long Run you know its ridden by an amatuer.

[TightEnd]

why you should never leave a football game early...

http://www.coventrytelegraph.net/coventry-city-fc/coventry-city-fc-news/2013/02/21/audio-why-you-should-never-leave-a-game-early-92746-32852811/

[Tonji]

Did fred have any Oscar bets?

[Tal]

Did fred have any Oscar bets?

IIRC Les Mis in the big one, as a way of opposing Lincoln.

Hasten to add not one from my Artsy Stable.

[hector62]

Afternoon Mr T.

Tomorrow sees the start of the cricket test series between India and Australia in India. I think we should support Mr Pujara again as he is a proper cricketer playing proper cricket. Had he been priced at 3-1 I would have backed him myself but not put him up for Fred, however 7/2 is available and I think that is a little bit of value. He should be refreshed and ready to stick it in the eye of the racist selectors for not picking him for the one dayers. I can't believe that Tendulkar is still in the team and only 5-1 for top batter after how poor he was against England.

Suggest £20 Pujara top series batter @ 7/2 Ladbrokes.

Make sure you pick top series and not for the 1st test match.

[redarmi]

Just looked at the eastleigh odds on betfair - libdem 1.27 wtf

This is most confusing really. The Tories have been friendless for a fortnight in this market

There also now appears a decent chance that the UKIPT will beat Labour into 3rd

So, the consensus is that Huhne, Vicky Pryce, Libs going into coalition with the Tories has little impact on the Lib vote here

but, The Tories ship votes tactically to the UKIPT as a protest


I won't be rushing into a by-election betting market again any time soon!

Meh - it was a good bet imo.

I thought so

However, seems the micro stuff is important

http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/02/21/why-the-speccies-james-forsyth-thinks-the-eastleigh-lib-dems-are-a-racing-certainty/

I was never keen on the UKIP bet, but though the Tory bet looked a good one at the time, but...

... she is stuck with the label the Conservative's Sarah Palin, and seems to have a talent for narrowing her voting base.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/feb/16/eastleigh-byelection-tories-maria-hutchings

She was the candidate at the last election - if you back Long Run you know its ridden by an amatuer.

That doesn't mean she had top be candidate again.  She has been such a liability that they didn't even let her appear on the live debate on R5live.  Just incredible incompetence picking her that, it seems, was motivated by the fear of having her stand against them which imo would have been a positive.