Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Meanwhile, Ian Lewison has won his PrizeFighter bout against the competent Timo Hoffmann in impressive style.

It's pub league stuff but that was quite a shock.

[Karabiner]

What a beast Poults is, can't believe I'm not on him this week.

[tikay]

What a beast Poults is, can't believe I'm not on him this week.

He is bang on his game, that last chip in was wonderful.

I believe that vegaslover mentioned Poulter early in the week, and he got on at a decent price.

[Bad Beat]

 Tomorrow's Survation poll in the Mail on Sunday will have the Tories 4 pts clear in Eastleigh. The Betfair market is reacting quickly, the bookies aren't. Lots of firms have 7/2 and Corals have 4/1.  With so may of the voters in all the polls so far undecided I don't think this bet is dead and buried. I think Fred should press at 4/1 or even 7/2. In the morning I think they'll be 2/1.

 £40 bet maybe.

[TightEnd]

Survation for the Mail on Sunday has Maria Hutchings four points ahead in Eastleigh

By Paul Goodman


The figures are:

Conservatives: 33

Liberal Democrats: 29

Labour: 13

UKIP: 22

This morning's Populus poll for the Times (£) found the following:

Conservatives: 28

Liberal Democrats: 33

Labour: 11

UKIP: 21

Lord Ashcroft's poll a fortnight ago recorded:

Conservatives: 34

Liberal Democrats: 31

Labour: 19

UKIP: 13

A few quick points:

    If the polls to date are to be believed, the Coalition partners are battling it out for first place.

    Anthony Wells of Yougov noted earlier today noted of the Populus poll that "a quarter said don’t know and a further 12% refused to give a voting intention" - a big total percentage.

    UKIP are clearly coming up on the rails very fast indeed, having increased their support since the Ashcroft poll, according to the others, by over a third.

    Labour's John O'Farrell is being squeezed out, and some of Labour's support, like some of that from the two main parties, has gone to UKIP.

    It is still probable that one of the two main parties will win, but it is clearly not impossible that UKIP will come second or even first, and should now come a good third at least.

    Tim Montgomerie has just tweeted that it is vital that Tory activists pour into the seat before Thursday.

    I plan to pour myself into Eastleigh, so to speak, on Wednesday, but have noted that the LibDem information on the ground will be better than CCHQ's.

Saturday, February 23, 2013


The betting markets have hardly moved for this new poll

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics-and-election/eastleigh/winning-party


Election is Thursday

[tikay]

Tomorrow's Survation poll in the Mail on Sunday will have the Tories 4 pts clear in Eastleigh. The Betfair market is reacting quickly, the bookies aren't. Lots of firms have 7/2 and Corals have 4/1.  With so may of the voters in all the polls so far undecided I don't think this bet is dead and buried. I think Fred should press at 4/1 or even 7/2. In the morning I think they'll be 2/1.

 £40 bet maybe.

WTF?

Wow, Tighty will be pleased to see that.

I've just had £40 @ 7/2 with WmHill, Tories to win Eastleigh. Full details to follow later.

Thanks Neil.

Can't believe I just placed a bet based on something in The Mail........

[tikay]

I had not seen Tighty's last post when I placed that, and I have a feeling he had not seen Neil's post!

[Chompy]

Stuff like this is why this thread is so good. Managed to get an interest bet on at 7/2. GL us.

[Tal]

When it comes to Eastleigh By-Election analysis, it seems many Hants make light work of the numbers.


At the risk of asking a silly question (in before "never stopped you before"), was £40 selected as the figure because it's an above average bet, for Kelly reasons (the gap between the biggest price and your estimate of the real probability of it happening) or just on experience/instinct?

Seems only sensible to be cheeky and ask

[BigAdz]

REALLY Tal? REALLY?

Saturday night and you want to talk e=mc~

[Bad Beat]

 I could see it was going to soon be an arb with Betfair and I think whenever that happens bettors should play bigger than usual. It seemed like it could move to 2/1 but it couldn't be worse than 4/1.

 I tend to agree with The Camel. Too many FGS and correct score £5s and £10s and bets where Fred is taking prices that can be beaten on Betfair with ease (every time you bet draw in a rugby match). When you have something that you KNOW is +ev, (anything that beats a liquid Betfair market is 95% to be), you just have to bet bigger.

 By the way, must say thanks to whoever suggested backing MacDowell outright at 33/1. I totally hate the idea of Betfair fixed-odds. It's whole existence highlights everything I hate about the way the company has gone. I love to scan the prices to try and beat them, but obv it's virtually impossible and when you do find something it's heavily restricted.

 I'm pretty sure they'll be slightly sad looking at the bet they laid me if GMAC wins and it'll feel sweeter than 99% of bets I've had this year.

[BigAdz]

Poults 4 up and going well.

I think Kelly might say "he is shittin in"....

[Tal]

REALLY Tal? REALLY?

Saturday night and you want to talk e=mc~

I've pretty much spent the entire day watching cricket, football, rugby, racing, more rugby, boxing, golf and now MOTD. A bit of light science never hurt anyone.


And thanks BB for the answer.

[Tal]

Two bits of sport news: Messi scores in 15th straight league game. 38 league goals for season.


David Price knocked out by a 41 year old yank who thinks drugs should be legalised in sport to level the playing field against the cheats.

[scotty2hatty]

Two bits of sport news: Messi scores in 15th straight league game. 38 league goals for season.


David Price knocked out by a 41 year old yank who thinks drugs should be legalised in sport to level the playing field against the cheats.

Price losing is a huge shock IMO.

In other news, my favourite MMA fighter Paul "Semtex" Daley just KO'd some Frenchie with a flying knee, great night!