Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Cheltenham.

This is just over a week away. I think horsey was right, we may as well wait for the Meeting before punting further.

Here is our portfolio so far - some of these may already be non-runners, if so, we need to take them as losses. Please advise.

Gold Cup

Dynaste, £10 @ 379/1. Non-runner?

Long Run, £25 @ 7/1

Captain Chris, £10 EW @ 25/1


Supreme Novices Hurdle

Jezki, £20 @ 8/1

Arkle

Colour Squadron, £5 Win @ 64/1.

Colour Squadron, £5 place @ 12.5/1.

Non-runner?

Ryanair

Albertas Run, £10 EW @ 25/1, Non-Runner Free Bet. (?)

Triumph Hurdle

Irish Saint, £10 EW @ 14/1, Non-Runner No Bet.

£2 Lucky 15

Rock on Ruby @ 10/1

Sir Des Champs @ 7/1

Boston Bob @ 10/1

Champion Court @ 10/1


If there are any known non-runners, & it seems there are, we need to get the losses taken now.

[BigAdz]

Out

I think the disparity in the price is because rory is in boom or bust mode. He can eithe put it all together and looks massive, or he could have another hissy fit and storm of cos his clubs ain't nice to him.....diddums.. That makes the quite big too.

In his current form, the is the only one of interest, but a month to go yet, and his tooth might still be hurting.

[BigAdz]

Hi Tikay.

Dynaste.....best laid plans etc.....NR

colour squadron fav for another race same day, so NR


Sundays, bloody Sunday's.....

[tikay]

Fwiw, I probs got out of the wrong side of bed, but the the point is, my OP was not only pretty clear, but as with everything (even my darts bets) it was posted as a question.

It was posted as a question because I was perplexed that someone can be circa 9/1 and 2nd fav to win yet 3/1 not to make the cut. As for doobs second point, I am not asking anyone to trawl through anything, I was putting a point up for discussion.

Tony, I think all of my posts on here are either questions, or looking for clarity on something. I used to start every post "I know nothing of value" or "betting noob here". I am aware of the input of many, but by the same token just because I am a noob doesn't mean everything i post should just be dismissed! Infact I am usually quite reserved about posting in this thread because of this matter.

Guy,

Nobody's stuff, least of all yours, is dismissed.

Questions get put up, they need feedback, feedback is sometimes painful. A little pain is part of the process.

Keep the questions coming please, there is generally something to be gleaned from either the answer or the question.

[tikay]

Hi Tikay.

Dynaste.....best laid plans etc.....NR

colour squadron fav for another race same day, so NR


Sundays, bloody Sunday's.....

Don't worry.

We have these Ante-Post punts & get great prices (San Fran, MvG, Barnet, Gonzago, spring to mind) but the value equation means some fall by the wayside.

We should keep doing these, the value can be extraordinary when we get it right.

I will write off both bets tomorrow.

PS - Has Colour Squadron deffo been withdrawn? If it still holds the entry, we have to leave it on the sheet.

[outragous76]

Fwiw, I probs got out of the wrong side of bed, but the the point is, my OP was not only pretty clear, but as with everything (even my darts bets) it was posted as a question.

It was posted as a question because I was perplexed that someone can be circa 9/1 and 2nd fav to win yet 3/1 not to make the cut. As for doobs second point, I am not asking anyone to trawl through anything, I was putting a point up for discussion.

Tony, I think all of my posts on here are either questions, or looking for clarity on something. I used to start every post "I know nothing of value" or "betting noob here". I am aware of the input of many, but by the same token just because I am a noob doesn't mean everything i post should just be dismissed! Infact I am usually quite reserved about posting in this thread because of this matter.

Guy,

Nobody's stuff, least of all yours, is dismissed.

Questions get put up, they need feedback, feedback is sometimes painful. A little pain is part of the process.

Keep the questions coming please, there is generally something to be gleaned from either the answer or the question.

I won't bore you with stats but I assure you they do!

It's got nothing to do with ego btw, because I have no ego to "front" nor protect when it comes to betting and rejection of bets I am intrigued to see why and the thought processes thereof

Doobs' response was (admittedly apparently having misread my post) but still pretty .............. (Insert you own pejorative adjective)

[Karabiner]

I did suggest backing Mail de Bievre EW 1/4 odds 1-2-3 @16/1 in the CC. but I didn't see any feedback either way at the time, and it must be buried by at least a dozen pages since I posted it.

The race is almost certain to cut up rather like last year's Arkle and 4/1 a place seems huge to me.

£10EW would seem an appropriate amount if others are positive about it.

[Tal]

Arsenal's 2013 record:

8 games where 2nd half highest scoring
3 games where 1st half highest scoring
1 draw

Spurs's 2013 record:

4 games where 2nd half highest scoring
2 games where 1st half highest scoring
5 draws

Combined, it's:
12 for second half
5 for first half
6 draws

Today, 2nd half having more goals is priced at 8/7 with Betfair and 11/10-Evens with everybody else. 1st is 9/4-2/1. Draw is best price 14/5 with Ladbrokes, but 12/5-5/2 generally.

So, I can't call it a rick if everyone is pricing it up that way, as I assume there are enough people chalking these up independently. However, I think 14/5 for the same number of goals to be scored in the first and second halves is a little too big. Near as makes no difference a third of a point above the mean looks too generous.

I suspect the game could be tighter than is being forecast. You can get 14/1 no goalscorer with Boylesports in the Anytime Goalscorer market. I assume this is better than betting on 0-0? Is there a difference I'm not understanding?

Steven Caulker is a danger from set pieces in the air going forward and although Arsenal have a big centre back pairing, they aren't the most mobile. 12-1 anytime goalscorer with Coral and others could be fun if he plays.

There you go. Food for thought and plenty of time to rip apart.

While the research is impressive and might a have a tiny bearing on what the prices should be, I would have thought goals expectation is translated into near enough the correct price for which half will have the most goals.

I may be wrong though.

Fair enough.

I am intrigued about the anytime goalscorer "no goalscorer" market. Often see a price of 7/1-9/1 for a 0-0, so I assumed 12/1 was a mistake. Turns out the opposite.

Hills go 0-0 at 16/1. Surely that's a biggie?

[tikay]

Fwiw, I probs got out of the wrong side of bed, but the the point is, my OP was not only pretty clear, but as with everything (even my darts bets) it was posted as a question.

It was posted as a question because I was perplexed that someone can be circa 9/1 and 2nd fav to win yet 3/1 not to make the cut. As for doobs second point, I am not asking anyone to trawl through anything, I was putting a point up for discussion.

Tony, I think all of my posts on here are either questions, or looking for clarity on something. I used to start every post "I know nothing of value" or "betting noob here". I am aware of the input of many, but by the same token just because I am a noob doesn't mean everything i post should just be dismissed! Infact I am usually quite reserved about posting in this thread because of this matter.

Guy,

Nobody's stuff, least of all yours, is dismissed.

Questions get put up, they need feedback, feedback is sometimes painful. A little pain is part of the process.

Keep the questions coming please, there is generally something to be gleaned from either the answer or the question.

I won't bore you with stats but I assure you they do!

It's got nothing to do with ego btw, because I have no ego to "front" nor protect when it comes to betting and rejection of bets I am intrigued to see why and the thought processes thereof

Doobs' response was (admittedly apparently having misread my post) but still pretty .............. (Insert you own pejorative adjective)

Well he apologised for his abrubtness, & as you probably know, he has a tense day ahead.

Let's move on Guy, we don't really do bad blood or bickering here, we leave that to the poker side of the Forum.

Fred has been unusually grumpy the last few days, must be the time of month.

You have had 4 bets accepted by Fred, for a £39 Profit & 38% ROI, so you do not get ignored at all. Only your bad ones.

We is happy place.

[BigAdz]

Squadron defo out Tony

[tikay]

Squadron defo out Tony

OK, ta, wil write off both bets in tomorrow's numbers.

[scotty2hatty]

Only one Derby that matters today and that's in the Scottish Cup, mon the Dees!

[Tal]

Only one Derby that matters today and that's in the Scottish Cup, mon the Dees!

Oh yes, the ding-dong Dundee derby. Your lot should win today, shouldn't you?

Dundeel, I would imagine.

[tikay]

Mail de Bievre is being supplemented for the Champion Chase and is currently available @ 16/1 with 1/4odds 1-2-3.

This race looks like it could easily cut up to around six runners rather like last year's Arkle and some firms are only offering 1-2 for the place bets.

As a certain runner barring any freak occurrances the 16/1 ew with 1/4 1-2-3 looks like a filthy value bet to me getting 4/1 a place. I've had a dabble and if others agree I think fred should too.

There it is Ralph.

I completely missed it, sorry.

I'll get on in a bit, it gives us balance, most of our regulars are young, so this redresses the young/old balance in one foul swoop.

[Tal]

Any (impartialish) views on the game today, BigAdz, Karabiner, SiloGraham and anyone else who wants to show their colours today?