Tips for Tikay

[The Camel]

Bet £50 on the Supreme Novices with VC and if it loses they will refund the bet.

Odds are very skinny (obv) but suggest 50 win on My Tent or Yours at 6/4

Thanks Keith.

Done.

Really weird this, the Bookies are almost forcing us to bet, & money is being sucked out of our pockets at quite a rate, but in every case, it seems we have no choice, as the value is there.

Based on yesterday's ruling, this bet will, for the sake of consistency, have to be owned by Fred, but thank you anyway.

We have £50 @ 6/4, BetVictor, My Tent or Yours, Supreme Novices, doewn to FRED.

ON

Total possible returns 125.00

Bet Receipt Single Selections
Cheltenham Ante Post 2013 Supreme Novices
My Tent Or Yours
(Horse Racing Outright)
Odds:  6/4
Stake:  50.00
Possible Return:  125.00

Just read the small print.

The money is returned as a Free bet which must be placed on horse racing on the four days the Festival is on.

Remember not to let free bet expire!

I will try not to. I need a PA these days.

But have we fallen foul of this?

Offer does not apply to Ante Post bets on the Supreme Novices Hurdle placed before the 5-day entry stage.

This must be the 5 day decs surely?

Would be obscene of them to link from the offer to the race on their home page, but bets taken today don't count for the offer.

[horseplayer]

Bet £50 on the Supreme Novices with VC and if it loses they will refund the bet.

Odds are very skinny (obv) but suggest 50 win on My Tent or Yours at 6/4

Thanks Keith.

Done.

Really weird this, the Bookies are almost forcing us to bet, & money is being sucked out of our pockets at quite a rate, but in every case, it seems we have no choice, as the value is there.

Based on yesterday's ruling, this bet will, for the sake of consistency, have to be owned by Fred, but thank you anyway.

We have £50 @ 6/4, BetVictor, My Tent or Yours, Supreme Novices, doewn to FRED.

ON

Total possible returns 125.00

Bet Receipt Single Selections
Cheltenham Ante Post 2013 Supreme Novices
My Tent Or Yours
(Horse Racing Outright)
Odds:  6/4
Stake:  50.00
Possible Return:  125.00

Just read the small print.

The money is returned as a Free bet which must be placed on horse racing on the four days the Festival is on.

Remember not to let free bet expire!

I will try not to. I need a PA these days.

But have we fallen foul of this?

Offer does not apply to Ante Post bets on the Supreme Novices Hurdle placed before the 5-day entry stage.

This must be the 5 day decs surely?

Would be obscene of them to link from the offer to the race on their home page, but bets taken today don't count for the offer.

they have been re tweeting the offer on twitter for every 5 minutes this morning since the crack of dawn so im sure this is fine

[MajorMajor]

Afternoon TK

What do people think of mickleson at 28s? Surely too big for lefty who is a winner already this season..

I like Rory at 25s too. World number 1, massive price, his game could come back at anytime. It happened last year, he missed a few cuts then chucked in a win out of nowhere at 20s+

I'd like to recommend 10ew on both. Pending any comments.

Cheers

[Tonji]

Clear your desk for next week Tikay looks like you'll need a temp PA. Good luck.

[mondatoo]

Your VC bet is fine tikay, it applies to all bets after noon UK time on the 6th March

[BigAdz]

Afternoon TK

What do people think of mickleson at 28s? Surely too big for lefty who is a winner already this season..

I like Rory at 25s too. World number 1, massive price, his game could come back at anytime. It happened last year, he missed a few cuts then chucked in a win out of nowhere at 20s+

I'd like to recommend 10ew on both. Pending any comments.

Cheers

Cant see any obvious value angles here tbh Major. I agree Rory could pop up at any time, and the odds will look massive, but after his cry baby antics of last week, even with all the practice he is putting in, I would want to see some upswing first, cos he had been "well bad".

Thought last years winner Justin Rose looked a safe conveyance at 16s, playing well, and course suits, but my picks seems to be 3 round wonders, so I shall refrain some a recommend.

[david3103]

Just received an email from Circuit Hospitality offering a Glass Fronted Box for GC Day
Club Badge
Car Parking
Coffee
Champagne Reception
Four Course Luncheon with wine
Full Afternoon Tea
Complimentary Bar
and Hostess Service

all this from £499pp (+VAT)

If anyone wants the email forwarding let me know :-)

[MajorMajor]

Afternoon TK

What do people think of mickleson at 28s? Surely too big for lefty who is a winner already this season..

I like Rory at 25s too. World number 1, massive price, his game could come back at anytime. It happened last year, he missed a few cuts then chucked in a win out of nowhere at 20s+

I'd like to recommend 10ew on both. Pending any comments.

Cheers

Cant see any obvious value angles here tbh Major. I agree Rory could pop up at any time, and the odds will look massive, but after his cry baby antics of last week, even with all the practice he is putting in, I would want to see some upswing first, cos he had been "well bad".

Thought last years winner Justin Rose looked a safe conveyance at 16s, playing well, and course suits, but my picks seems to be 3 round wonders, so I shall refrain some a recommend.

A couple of years ago I was told to blind back mickleson if he was 16s or bigger, I know that was a few years ago but he is still the same player. I've backed them both and hope for a decent sweat.

[tikay]

Your VC bet is fine tikay, it applies to all bets after noon UK time on the 6th March

Thanks Ray.

That makes no sense, as it clearly clashes with T & C # 8, (see below) but as they are pushing it so hard today, as Camel notes, if we HAVE gone on too early, Mr Chandler has a world of pain coming his way from thousands who have been duped.



Offer does not apply to Ante Post bets on the Supreme Novices Hurdle placed before the 5-day entry stage.

[tikay]

Clear your desk for next week Tikay looks like you'll need a temp PA. Good luck.

Not wrong.

I plan to take a few days off work, such as I can, my job is not exactly 9-5, it's "be there when needed", but I will not be able to manage this if I am working each day.

[The Camel]

Afternoon TK

What do people think of mickleson at 28s? Surely too big for lefty who is a winner already this season..

I like Rory at 25s too. World number 1, massive price, his game could come back at anytime. It happened last year, he missed a few cuts then chucked in a win out of nowhere at 20s+

I'd like to recommend 10ew on both. Pending any comments.

Cheers

Not a golf epert any more (not sure I ever was!).

No opinion on the Mickelson bet, but would strongly argue against the Rory bet.

Take the example of Tiger when he came back from his long absence.

His price drifted and drifted and altho he did eventually win, as Flushy will testify, you would have done your conkers backing him each week before he finally came good.

A public favourite like Rory will usually be priced up conservatively as well, because the books know plenty will be prepared to overlook his recent tez form in the hope he'll come good.

Backing someone in the hopes he will turn it around in x tournament but with no evidence to prove he will, is a bad strategy imo.

All in all, steer clear.

[tikay]

Whether Fred is ready to dip his toe into the murky world of 'trading', I'm not sure. But, if he has the appetite, may I recommend backing Pont Alexandre for the Neptune at 15/8 with VC with a view to trading out of the position on the exchange when the Irish money (inevitably, imo) pours on in the couple of days before the race?

I envisage one of two things happening after the first day:

1. The Irish have got the lot, and will wish to play up their winnings on the horse that Ruby is speaking of in such revered tones.

2. The Irish have done their conkers (relatively), and will be looking for a bet to get them out of trouble.

In short, whether Pont Alexandre is value at 15/8 I am not sure. What I am 'sure' (read, "confident enough to make it a recommend") of however is that the price will contract come race time.

Recommend: £80 Pont Alexandre @ 15/8 VC. Then put up a series of lay orders on the machine: £20 @ 2.64, £20 @ 2.54, £20 @ 2.44, £20 @ 2.34 (or similar).

This should, if all goes to plan, net Fred a nice free bet on the 5/4 jolly to win c£30.

I've been experimenting with Trading (on my own account) so yes, I'd like to try this one.

Problem 1 - PP only allowed me £30 (just placed the bet, details shortly), so I could reduce the Lay bets in proportion, OR, I could have another £50 elsewhere at 7/4, then do the lays for a slightly smaller profit.

What would you advise - stick to £30 @ 15/8, or take the rest at 7/4, in each case, adjusting the Lays accordingly?

Hmm, the thing is 7/4 is really quite a bit shorter than 15/8. Because of the quirks of the traditional fixed odds pricing ladder there are a few 'leaps' - ie. 2.875 --> 2.75.

I would, as an alternative, recommend putting up an order to back Pont Alexandre for the remaining £50 on Betfair split evenly between 2.86 and 2.88. The benefits of this over taking the 7/4 are (a) you get matched at a better price and (b) you don't take such an implied commission hit as your positions net each other off.

Thanks.

Sorry to be a pain, but......

If we do as suggested (back £25 each on Betty at 2.86 & 2.88), do we still execute the lays exactly as you originally suggested?

I do feel rather silly asking all these dumb questions, so you'll have to excuse my naivete.

I would wait to place the lay bets until the back bets are matched, then execute as before

If the market shortens and the back bets don't get matched then we'll execute the same plan as before but to amended staking reflecting we would have only £30 on rather than £80.

Sheesh. My head hurts.

Part 1 is complete now. This is all owned by Ed Gascoigne.

We still have to do the Lay parts though. I'll wait until - if or when - the Back bets are matched first though.

We have.....

£30 @ 15/8, Paddy Power, Port Alexandre to win the Neptune Novices Hurdle.

£25 @ 2.86, Betfair, Ditto. Currently UNMATCHED.

£25 @ 2.88, Betfair, Ditto. Currently UNMATCHED.

ON

CHELTENHAM Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle
13-03-2013 14:05
Win or E/W
Pont Alexandre @ 15/8
Your Bets
Win
Single: Pont Alexandre @ 15/8
1 line at £30.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £30.00
Potential returns: £86.25
No: O/23146337/0000272
Total stake: £30.00
Free bets voucher: £0.00
Total Cost: £30.00

______

GB / Chelt 13th Mar / Neptune Nov Hrd
Pont Alexandre 
Back   25645441918   07-Mar-13
11:32    C   2.88   25.00       
 

____

    GB / Chelt 13th Mar / Neptune Nov Hrd
Pont Alexandre 
Back   25645436415   07-Mar-13
11:32    C   2.86   25.00

[mondatoo]

Your VC bet is fine tikay, it applies to all bets after noon UK time on the 6th March

Thanks Ray.

That makes no sense, as it clearly clashes with T & C # 8, (see below) but as they are pushing it so hard today, as Camel notes, if we HAVE gone on too early, Mr Chandler has a world of pain coming his way from thousands who have been duped.



Offer does not apply to Ante Post bets on the Supreme Novices Hurdle placed before the 5-day entry stage.

I asked on live help.

[edgascoigne]

Whether Fred is ready to dip his toe into the murky world of 'trading', I'm not sure. But, if he has the appetite, may I recommend backing Pont Alexandre for the Neptune at 15/8 with VC with a view to trading out of the position on the exchange when the Irish money (inevitably, imo) pours on in the couple of days before the race?

I envisage one of two things happening after the first day:

1. The Irish have got the lot, and will wish to play up their winnings on the horse that Ruby is speaking of in such revered tones.

2. The Irish have done their conkers (relatively), and will be looking for a bet to get them out of trouble.

In short, whether Pont Alexandre is value at 15/8 I am not sure. What I am 'sure' (read, "confident enough to make it a recommend") of however is that the price will contract come race time.

Recommend: £80 Pont Alexandre @ 15/8 VC. Then put up a series of lay orders on the machine: £20 @ 2.64, £20 @ 2.54, £20 @ 2.44, £20 @ 2.34 (or similar).

This should, if all goes to plan, net Fred a nice free bet on the 5/4 jolly to win c£30.

I've been experimenting with Trading (on my own account) so yes, I'd like to try this one.

Problem 1 - PP only allowed me £30 (just placed the bet, details shortly), so I could reduce the Lay bets in proportion, OR, I could have another £50 elsewhere at 7/4, then do the lays for a slightly smaller profit.

What would you advise - stick to £30 @ 15/8, or take the rest at 7/4, in each case, adjusting the Lays accordingly?

Hmm, the thing is 7/4 is really quite a bit shorter than 15/8. Because of the quirks of the traditional fixed odds pricing ladder there are a few 'leaps' - ie. 2.875 --> 2.75.

I would, as an alternative, recommend putting up an order to back Pont Alexandre for the remaining £50 on Betfair split evenly between 2.86 and 2.88. The benefits of this over taking the 7/4 are (a) you get matched at a better price and (b) you don't take such an implied commission hit as your positions net each other off.

Thanks.

Sorry to be a pain, but......

If we do as suggested (back £25 each on Betty at 2.86 & 2.88), do we still execute the lays exactly as you originally suggested?

I do feel rather silly asking all these dumb questions, so you'll have to excuse my naivete.

I would wait to place the lay bets until the back bets are matched, then execute as before

If the market shortens and the back bets don't get matched then we'll execute the same plan as before but to amended staking reflecting we would have only £30 on rather than £80.

Sheesh. My head hurts.

Part 1 is complete now. This is all owned by Ed Gascoigne.

We still have to do the Lay parts though. I'll wait until - if or when - the Back bets are matched first though.

We have.....

£30 @ 15/8, Paddy Power, Port Alexandre to win the Neptune Novices Hurdle.

£25 @ 2.86, Betfair, Ditto. Currently UNMATCHED.

£25 @ 2.88, Betfair, Ditto. Currently UNMATCHED.

ON

CHELTENHAM Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle
13-03-2013 14:05
Win or E/W
Pont Alexandre @ 15/8
Your Bets
Win
Single: Pont Alexandre @ 15/8
1 line at £30.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £30.00
Potential returns: £86.25
No: O/23146337/0000272
Total stake: £30.00
Free bets voucher: £0.00
Total Cost: £30.00

______

GB / Chelt 13th Mar / Neptune Nov Hrd
Pont Alexandre 
Back   25645441918   07-Mar-13
11:32    C   2.88   25.00       
 

____

    GB / Chelt 13th Mar / Neptune Nov Hrd
Pont Alexandre 
Back   25645436415   07-Mar-13
11:32    C   2.86   25.00

Lovely stuff. It'll be well worth the hassle if the market moves as I anticipate and Fred locks in a nice position

[tikay]

Your VC bet is fine tikay, it applies to all bets after noon UK time on the 6th March

Thanks Ray.

That makes no sense, as it clearly clashes with T & C # 8, (see below) but as they are pushing it so hard today, as Camel notes, if we HAVE gone on too early, Mr Chandler has a world of pain coming his way from thousands who have been duped.



Offer does not apply to Ante Post bets on the Supreme Novices Hurdle placed before the 5-day entry stage.

I asked on live help.

Are you sure they understood you?

Not being rude, like, but you get my drift.