Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

If Camel's out, is Fred dead?

[Karabiner]

I have to really resist falling into my old habits Keith.

I really really wanted to back McDowell this week.

I like him.

I admire his resilience.

Every time I have backed him, he was done well for me. I got him at 30/1 last year when he won, & I get get with him in a lot of 72 hole match bets.

But I've managed to avoid him this week, because I just don't think the course is quite right for him.

As you say, tremendously satisfying if I can get a sweat, & nick a few bob here & there.

In the immortal words of Mr Bad Beat, that's marvellous.

I think the aim of the thread as stated in post number one "So I reckon with all the good sports betting punters on here, we can tun Tiikay from ice cream to shark." has been achieved.

So I'm going retire from being a tipster on this thread (at least for the time being) to concentrate other stuff.

I'll keep my beady eye out though and if you start slipping into your old ways, you'll have to suffer the consequences. And you won't like them.

Good luck Fred!

PS Did I end up a winner on tips I gave here?

I think you should at least hang around until the fred-niffle-bash in October Keith.

[david3103]

If Camel's out, is Fred dead?

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

I hesitate a bit, but here goes. Perhaps you'll need Hector's view before proceeding, as the 6N hasn't been helpful to the thread so far

Two weeks ago, France were in with a shout against England for 55 minutes in the Six Nations

Two things happened

- English bench very strong, and much fitter team than the French in the last quarter
- French coach substituted off various players who were keeping it close notably Parra, Trinh Duc and Mas

This weekend Ireland v France

France team announced this morning, includes Michalak at Fly Half, the man who has no business being picked at fly Half

Brian Moore, the trenchant commentator said this morning that it was an act of "coaching suicide" to pick Michalak

Ireland have plenty to prove. They have lost against England, and really underperformed in that game. They lost against Scotland and it was a really strange one to lose with over 70% territory and possession

They have Healy and McCarthy back up front, so it should be minimum parity up there

The weather forecast for Dublin on Saturday is wettish

"Daytime maximum temperatures to 9°C and wind speed of 4 meters per second from East with wind gust to 6 meters per second. Amount of rain precipitation to 0.43 cm. Low probability of thunderstorms."

This suits Ireland, or it should if they play with more precision than they did against England and probably does not suit the French.

Tough place to go Dublin with a flaky fly half, bad weather and without a win this Championship


I did my usual. What did I think the prices should be?

I came up with Ireland 10/11, France 5/4

I think it will probably be a one score game

The actually prices are at

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/ireland-v-france/winner

I simply cannot have the Irish as Underdogs at home, against the French

Was stunned to see you could get 11/10 in a couple of spots, actually

Recommend £50 Ireland at 11/10
Recommend £5 The Draw at 20-1

The draw? Always close games, chances accentuated by poor weather

    2012: France 17-17 Ireland
    2011: Ireland 22-25 France
    2010: France 33-10 Ireland
    2009: Ireland 30-21 France
    2008: France 26-21 Ireland
    2007: Ireland 17-20 France

[tikay]

Just to confirm, that BetVictor MTOY Promo, officially says....




"The Cheltenham Festival starts on Tuesday and we’ve got the ultimate opening race promotion to kick-start your Festival week with BetVictor.

If You Don't Win Money on The Supreme Novices' Hurdle we will refund your losses on the race up to £50 as a Free Bet! T&C apply.

With our #SupremeOffer you’ll have the ultimate safety net of money back as a free bet if you’re out of luck in the opener. Nicky Henderson’s My Tent Or Yours heads the betting and is set to go off one of the best backed horses of the week. You can bet on him, or any other runner in the race and we’ll refund your losses on the race up to £50 as a Free Bet!

Don’t miss out. This offer is available now up to the ‘off’ of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at 1.30 on Tuesday."

But.....I never got it until 12.39 this afternoon.

[BigAdz]

Camel leaving.

I feel like I have been hit by a bus.

[tikay]

I have to really resist falling into my old habits Keith.

I really really wanted to back McDowell this week.

I like him.

I admire his resilience.

Every time I have backed him, he was done well for me. I got him at 30/1 last year when he won, & I get get with him in a lot of 72 hole match bets.

But I've managed to avoid him this week, because I just don't think the course is quite right for him.

As you say, tremendously satisfying if I can get a sweat, & nick a few bob here & there.

In the immortal words of Mr Bad Beat, that's marvellous.

I think the aim of the thread as stated in post number one "So I reckon with all the good sports betting punters on here, we can tun Tiikay from ice cream to shark." has been achieved.

So I'm going retire from being a tipster on this thread (at least for the time being) to concentrate other stuff.

I'll keep my beady eye out though and if you start slipping into your old ways, you'll have to suffer the consequences. And you won't like them.

Good luck Fred!

PS Did I end up a winner on tips I gave here?

Jeez, that is AWFUL news. It is your thread, Keith.

Need to think on the ramifications of that, but of course I respect the fact that it uses up a lot of time, & we each have our own lives to lead.

Need to have a think now, as to how we move on from here.

But thank you, anyway. Fred is far & away the busiest thread on blonde, by Views, & Posts, day in & day out, & we don't get much of the bad blood & bad manners seen so frequently elsewhere, because you set the tone.

Did you end up as a winner on here? Yup. Not by much, but yes, you have a positive ROI. But what fun we had with Barnet, & Colin!

[tikay]

Camel leaving.

I feel like I have been hit by a bus.

Me too.

[Karabiner]

Camel leaving.

I feel like I have been hit by a bus.

He probably just got out of bed on the wrong side.

He's not getting any younger you know..

[TightEnd]

Gents

Just rummaging around the Championship coupon on Betfair and one price stood out for me.  I went to the Watford v Sheff Wed game in midweek and was impressed with the visitors in defeat.  It is no exaggeration so say it could have been 3-0 Weds at half time, before the introduction of Chalobah and Forestieri and a formation change completed changed the game. 

I see the following prices for the home promotion chasers on Sat:

Watford 1.9 v Blackpool
Palace 1.9 v Leeds
Leicester 1.66 v Sheff Weds.

I think Leicester are too short.  I think Watford and Palace are significantly more likely to bank 3 points on Saturday than the Foxes, given the strength of all 6 squads and current form.

I'm sure Tighty will have a view on whether he agrees, but I recommend LAYING Leicester for £50ish so £30 risked to win £50.  Just feels like anyone backing the home team at 1.66 is making a really bad bet.

I couldn't back us at 1.66 at the moment. Too many front six players off-form and teams have worked us out a bit (bully the midfield, tight on the wide men)

That's not to say I would lay them either though, its a mad division

[The Camel]

I have to really resist falling into my old habits Keith.

I really really wanted to back McDowell this week.

I like him.

I admire his resilience.

Every time I have backed him, he was done well for me. I got him at 30/1 last year when he won, & I get get with him in a lot of 72 hole match bets.

But I've managed to avoid him this week, because I just don't think the course is quite right for him.

As you say, tremendously satisfying if I can get a sweat, & nick a few bob here & there.

In the immortal words of Mr Bad Beat, that's marvellous.

I think the aim of the thread as stated in post number one "So I reckon with all the good sports betting punters on here, we can tun Tiikay from ice cream to shark." has been achieved.

So I'm going retire from being a tipster on this thread (at least for the time being) to concentrate other stuff.

I'll keep my beady eye out though and if you start slipping into your old ways, you'll have to suffer the consequences. And you won't like them.

Good luck Fred!

PS Did I end up a winner on tips I gave here?

I think you should at least hang around until the fred-niffle-bash in October Keith.

Oh don't worry, I won't be missing THAT weekend unless I'm six feet under.

Just I've got quite a few things going on atm, and devoting time to helping Fred seems like a bit of a waste of time, when Fred is perfectly shrewd enough to look after itself.

[BigAdz]

I have to really resist falling into my old habits Keith.

I really really wanted to back McDowell this week.

I like him.

I admire his resilience.

Every time I have backed him, he was done well for me. I got him at 30/1 last year when he won, & I get get with him in a lot of 72 hole match bets.

But I've managed to avoid him this week, because I just don't think the course is quite right for him.

As you say, tremendously satisfying if I can get a sweat, & nick a few bob here & there.

In the immortal words of Mr Bad Beat, that's marvellous.

I think the aim of the thread as stated in post number one "So I reckon with all the good sports betting punters on here, we can tun Tiikay from ice cream to shark." has been achieved.

So I'm going retire from being a tipster on this thread (at least for the time being) to concentrate other stuff.

I'll keep my beady eye out though and if you start slipping into your old ways, you'll have to suffer the consequences. And you won't like them.

Good luck Fred!

PS Did I end up a winner on tips I gave here?

I think you should at least hang around until the fred-niffle-bash in October Keith.

Oh don't worry, I won't be missing THAT weekend unless I'm six feet under.

Just I've got quite a few things going on atm, and devoting time to helping Fred seems like a bit of a waste of time, when Fred is perfectly shrewd enough to look after itself.

But Keith.

The Old Fella aint getting any younger. Lets be honest, we all chuckle at the misclicks, but we all wonder if THAT was THE misclick, dont we.......?

This Fred needs a Tikay in waiting. We need a man that can store water for weeks at a time, for when the going gets rough.

CAMEL, This Fred needs YOU!

[The Camel]

I have to really resist falling into my old habits Keith.

I really really wanted to back McDowell this week.

I like him.

I admire his resilience.

Every time I have backed him, he was done well for me. I got him at 30/1 last year when he won, & I get get with him in a lot of 72 hole match bets.

But I've managed to avoid him this week, because I just don't think the course is quite right for him.

As you say, tremendously satisfying if I can get a sweat, & nick a few bob here & there.

In the immortal words of Mr Bad Beat, that's marvellous.

I think the aim of the thread as stated in post number one "So I reckon with all the good sports betting punters on here, we can tun Tiikay from ice cream to shark." has been achieved.

So I'm going retire from being a tipster on this thread (at least for the time being) to concentrate other stuff.

I'll keep my beady eye out though and if you start slipping into your old ways, you'll have to suffer the consequences. And you won't like them.

Good luck Fred!

PS Did I end up a winner on tips I gave here?

I think you should at least hang around until the fred-niffle-bash in October Keith.

Oh don't worry, I won't be missing THAT weekend unless I'm six feet under.

Just I've got quite a few things going on atm, and devoting time to helping Fred seems like a bit of a waste of time, when Fred is perfectly shrewd enough to look after itself.

But Keith.

The Old Fella aint getting any younger. Lets be honest, we all chuckle at the misclicks, but we all wonder if THAT was THE misclick, dont we.......?

This Fred needs a Tikay in waiting. We need a man that can store water for weeks at a time, for when the going gets rough.

CAMEL, This Fred needs YOU!

Haha, you're a Tal in waiting, don't worry about that!

Mostly you'll be able to find me at PHA.

Maybe I'll just have a sabbatical and come back refreshed for the NFL season in September.

[The Camel]

Traditionally I do my bollocks in the arse end of the football season. So the plan there is to sit tight on my ante post positions and have very few bets.

Racing, I'll be super busy during Cheltenahm obv, but jump racing is never my first love and I won't miss studying crap cards at Worcester and Bangor.

The flat turf season doesn't get going for a good few weeks.

So, I'm going to devite a decent amount of time to improving my rusty poker skills and trying to get fit which goes hand in hand with the weight loss thing. (got to love Richard Ashby "Have you lost weight Keith?" he said yesterday. At last someone noticed. God bless Chufty!).

Not enough time for Fred and I would hate to make half baked or ill researched selections.

Better I retire (or take a good time off) than give shitty tips, right?

[Tonji]

Good luck Keith with your other things. Thanks for all the wisdom.

Hope the other elders stick around & it's not the end of TfT.