Tips for Tikay

[bobby1]

Neil abs nailed it if you are concerned about you Chelters stuff Tony, no probs with trimming the stakes if you feel its the best thing to do. Prob best to put the lays Neil suggested in str8 away tho and give yourself a better chance of catching the market swaying over the next few days.

The one that it might pay to be a little cute with is oscar whiskey, there have been a few rumours that all is not well with RDS in that race, should that be the case and it doesnt make it then the top end of the market will get shorter. I dont fancy OW either but you might end up losing a few ticks on your lay by waiting to see if RDS is ok but might be able to lay at a point lower if it is out.

Thanks Phil.

The plan is to execute most of those lays this afternoon. I'll either do them pre-nap (excuse for misclicks - "I was tired") or after my nap (excuse "I had just woken up").

It pretty much ONLY applies to the "OFFER" bets where they cancel out an existing bet. I don't think I should lay "accepted" bets from Fred regulars except in those circumstances, where the OFFER price significantly beats the price we originally got on. 

Now, talk us though Mexican Rallies & silly hats.

yes deffo only the enhanced ones, tho for example if you lay a small amount of Long Run at say 13/2 to just lessen the stake you are trading out the rec on thread  at 13/2 but it's just an extreme occasion where we could bet it at 10/1 because of the offer.

Mexican rallies, If they were racing in my back garden I would close the curtains but our man seems to be listed at the top of whatever these means, we need Tonji or someone that knows these things to translate. I think it means he is probably winning by a Gnats after stage 2.


http://en.best-of-rallylive.com/Evenements/Rally-Mexico-2013/Rally-Mexico

[tikay]

I think you had better have another look at the " math " Mr T.

As an aside I did one of these bets on City in the last round against Leeds, 3-0 and 4-0, and it came in.

Bugger!

I was looking at the scores, not the odds.

I blame Aaron. Everyone else does.

Even so, I still need to understand how we know if those odds are anything like right.

Presumably, there is a goals expectation linked to the Outright Odds. Everton are, generally, 2/5.

These correct score markets tend to have a much bigger margin/overound than the outright markets.  Every man and his dog is going to expect man city to thrash Barnsley.  Picking fairly likely selections in markets with big overounds where bookies are likely to have a good handle on the distributions of scores is not likely to be +EV in the long run. 

There is no evidence at all we are thinking any different to your average ice cream here.

Personally, I don't like Correct Score bets, it seems to me we must be mostly guessing. If we were mega-serious, we could work out the Goal Expectation from the Outright, but as you note, the bookies price in a hefty margin on these Markets.

[tikay]

Neil abs nailed it if you are concerned about you Chelters stuff Tony, no probs with trimming the stakes if you feel its the best thing to do. Prob best to put the lays Neil suggested in str8 away tho and give yourself a better chance of catching the market swaying over the next few days.

The one that it might pay to be a little cute with is oscar whiskey, there have been a few rumours that all is not well with RDS in that race, should that be the case and it doesnt make it then the top end of the market will get shorter. I dont fancy OW either but you might end up losing a few ticks on your lay by waiting to see if RDS is ok but might be able to lay at a point lower if it is out.

Thanks Phil.

The plan is to execute most of those lays this afternoon. I'll either do them pre-nap (excuse for misclicks - "I was tired") or after my nap (excuse "I had just woken up").

It pretty much ONLY applies to the "OFFER" bets where they cancel out an existing bet. I don't think I should lay "accepted" bets from Fred regulars except in those circumstances, where the OFFER price significantly beats the price we originally got on. 

Now, talk us though Mexican Rallies & silly hats.

yes deffo only the enhanced ones, tho for example if you lay a small amount of Long Run at say 13/2 to just lessen the stake you are trading out the rec on thread  at 13/2 but it's just an extreme occasion where we could bet it at 10/1 because of the offer.

Mexican rallies, If they were racing in my back garden I would close the curtains but our man seems to be listed at the top of whatever these means, we need Tonji or someone that knows these things to translate. I think it means he is probably winning by a Gnats after stage 2.
http://en.best-of-rallylive.com/Evenements/Rally-Mexico-2013/Rally-Mexico

Ha, we are in the lead! Just. That'll do for me.

[Doobs]

Neil abs nailed it if you are concerned about you Chelters stuff Tony, no probs with trimming the stakes if you feel its the best thing to do. Prob best to put the lays Neil suggested in str8 away tho and give yourself a better chance of catching the market swaying over the next few days.

The one that it might pay to be a little cute with is oscar whiskey, there have been a few rumours that all is not well with RDS in that race, should that be the case and it doesnt make it then the top end of the market will get shorter. I dont fancy OW either but you might end up losing a few ticks on your lay by waiting to see if RDS is ok but might be able to lay at a point lower if it is out.

Thanks Phil.

The plan is to execute most of those lays this afternoon. I'll either do them pre-nap (excuse for misclicks - "I was tired") or after my nap (excuse "I had just woken up").

It pretty much ONLY applies to the "OFFER" bets where they cancel out an existing bet. I don't think I should lay "accepted" bets from Fred regulars except in those circumstances, where the OFFER price significantly beats the price we originally got on. 

Now, talk us though Mexican Rallies & silly hats.

Is Cheltenham one betting event or a series of betting events.  If you think it is the former, I don't think you are thinking about it correctly.  I remember Ant putting up a discussion about his bankroll management because he was putting up too much of his bankroll at stake every night.  Given he was playing 100 independent tournaments or so a night I didn't think he was thinking about it in the right manner, and I think we are doing the same here.

So £450 over 1 event clearly breaks the bankroll management rules.  £450 over 10 or so different events doesn't.  This is particularly so where we seem to have got very good value for almost all the bets.  

It seems odd to try and reverse out of these good value bets and them get tempted for something which hasn't been nearly as well thought out.  

[tikay]

Thread is full of intelligent bets, well thought out and insightful.

But to bet £100 on Spurs at 3/1 when they are 4.3 offered on Betfair is inexcusable!!

Its all about the price, its all about the price, its all about the price!!


lee

That is the price now?  What was the price then?  

At the time I placed the bet. Oddschecker was not showing Betfair as best price, I can 100% guarantee, it was LESS than 3/1, ......but, the problem is, Oddschecker does not keep up with Betfair, & so really, I should check Betty before every bet. Time is the problem.


Apologies to Lee h if he thought my reply was a bit blunt, but I DO know it is all about price......

[tikay]

Neil abs nailed it if you are concerned about you Chelters stuff Tony, no probs with trimming the stakes if you feel its the best thing to do. Prob best to put the lays Neil suggested in str8 away tho and give yourself a better chance of catching the market swaying over the next few days.

The one that it might pay to be a little cute with is oscar whiskey, there have been a few rumours that all is not well with RDS in that race, should that be the case and it doesnt make it then the top end of the market will get shorter. I dont fancy OW either but you might end up losing a few ticks on your lay by waiting to see if RDS is ok but might be able to lay at a point lower if it is out.

Thanks Phil.

The plan is to execute most of those lays this afternoon. I'll either do them pre-nap (excuse for misclicks - "I was tired") or after my nap (excuse "I had just woken up").

It pretty much ONLY applies to the "OFFER" bets where they cancel out an existing bet. I don't think I should lay "accepted" bets from Fred regulars except in those circumstances, where the OFFER price significantly beats the price we originally got on. 

Now, talk us though Mexican Rallies & silly hats.

Is Cheltenham one betting event or a series of betting events.  If you think it is the former, I don't think you are thinking about it correctly.  I remember Ant putting up a discussion about his bankroll management because he was putting up too much of his bankroll at stake every night.  Given he was playing 100 independent tournaments or so a night I didn't think he was thinking about it in the right manner, and I think we are doing the same here.

So £450 over 1 event clearly breaks the bankroll management rules.  £450 over 10 or so different events doesn't.  This is particularly so where we seem to have got very good value for almost all the bets.   

It seems odd to try and reverse out of these good value bets and them get tempted for something which hasn't been nearly as well thought out. 

It is a SERIES of bets, so in that respect, you are correct. We have had a series of indvidual bets,

It just troubled me that we were sort of being led by Bookies Offers & sticking more & more money on. In theory, if the top three Bookies all did the same thing (with different selections) we could end up sticking fortunes on & we would run out of money.

We have not been in this spot before, & I thought it worth airing.

As it stands, Neil has suggested we take some cover, & Phil has agreed.

Your suggestion is that we have tremendous value, & we would be daft to forego that.

Both views seem to have merit, & I agree with both. But we have to do one or the other.

Happy to heed further good input before I start clicking buttons & find we have backed Kuchar to win the Gold Cup.

[Tal]

Some of the Pont Alexandre/The New One chat has been based on the concerns over the stable of The New One and the horse's fitness.

I can't help thinking that, if Mr Twiston-Davies thought for a picosecond that his unbeaten novice might not be 100%, he'd pull it and run it at Aintree in a few weeks.

Am I underthinking again?

[bobby1]

Just taking the Long Run example, I have backed it and think it was value when you did, as it happens it then became a special offer at 10/1. so you are on at 10/1 7/1 and 13/2, if you wanted to lay back the stake of the bet at 13/2 now, at 13/2 then you are cutting down your exposure and it pushes up the average price you are on at for the remaining money.

Without the offer you would have had 2 bets at 7/1 and 13/2, with the offer you can now have two bets at 10/1 and 7/1.

[BigAdz]

Some of the Pont Alexandre/The New One chat has been based on the concerns over the stable of The New One and the horse's fitness.

I can't help thinking that, if Mr Twiston-Davies thought for a picosecond that his unbeaten novice might not be 100%, he'd pull it and run it at Aintree in a few weeks.

Am I underthinking again?

You would like to think Tal. Problem is when a trainer sets out his stall to win a race, sometimes they dont see what we all see.

When stables go down, they tend to affect all the horses to a degree, problem Twister has, is if he walks past New Ones box every day looking to see a runny nose or whatever, he may not see it, and in his mind "All clear", but true symptoms take longer in some than others.

Thats a shit explaination, but you get my drift. Basically when a stable gets it, you rarely see any winners, even if said horse shows no issues. Invariably horse loses and trainer gets back and says "it coughed all the way home" etc.

I fancied it, but now cant even have it on my mind. Short term i may have got it wrong. Long Term +EV

[Tonji]

Neil abs nailed it if you are concerned about you Chelters stuff Tony, no probs with trimming the stakes if you feel its the best thing to do. Prob best to put the lays Neil suggested in str8 away tho and give yourself a better chance of catching the market swaying over the next few days.

The one that it might pay to be a little cute with is oscar whiskey, there have been a few rumours that all is not well with RDS in that race, should that be the case and it doesnt make it then the top end of the market will get shorter. I dont fancy OW either but you might end up losing a few ticks on your lay by waiting to see if RDS is ok but might be able to lay at a point lower if it is out.

Thanks Phil.

The plan is to execute most of those lays this afternoon. I'll either do them pre-nap (excuse for misclicks - "I was tired") or after my nap (excuse "I had just woken up").

It pretty much ONLY applies to the "OFFER" bets where they cancel out an existing bet. I don't think I should lay "accepted" bets from Fred regulars except in those circumstances, where the OFFER price significantly beats the price we originally got on. 

Now, talk us though Mexican Rallies & silly hats.

yes deffo only the enhanced ones, tho for example if you lay a small amount of Long Run at say 13/2 to just lessen the stake you are trading out the rec on thread  at 13/2 but it's just an extreme occasion where we could bet it at 10/1 because of the offer.

Mexican rallies, If they were racing in my back garden I would close the curtains but our man seems to be listed at the top of whatever these means, we need Tonji or someone that knows these things to translate. I think it means he is probably winning by a Gnats after stage 2.
http://en.best-of-rallylive.com/Evenements/Rally-Mexico-2013/Rally-Mexico

Ha, we are in the lead! Just. That'll do for me.

10 stages in total, finishes on Sunday. Good luck.

Back in the 90s I whould have some good info in Rallying as my brother worked with Richard Burns & later Subaru & Dave Richards. Been years since I've watched any Rallying, it's profile dropped greatly in the UK after the passing of McRae & Burns.

[tikay]

Some of the Pont Alexandre/The New One chat has been based on the concerns over the stable of The New One and the horse's fitness.

I can't help thinking that, if Mr Twiston-Davies thought for a picosecond that his unbeaten novice might not be 100%, he'd pull it and run it at Aintree in a few weeks.

Am I underthinking again?

You would like to think Tal. Problem is when a trainer sets out his stall to win a race, sometimes they dont see what we all see.

When stables go down, they tend to affect all the horses to a degree, problem Twister has, is if he walks past New Ones box every day looking to see a runny nose or whatever, he may not see it, and in his mind "All clear", but true symptoms take longer in some than others.

Thats a shit explaination, but you get my drift. Basically when a stable gets it, you rarely see any winners, even if said horse shows no issues. Invariably horse loses and trainer gets back and says "it coughed all the way home" etc.

I fancied it, but now cant even have it on my mind. Short term i may have got it wrong. Long Term +EV

You explained that better than I could.

I was going to label it the "Ant & Crystal Palace" factor.

It is difficult to see the wood for trees when we stand too close, & Mr T-D would not be the first trainer to think his sick geese were actually super-fit swans. There, more analogies than you can sake a stick at enough.

[tikay]

Ok, I'm open to dogs load of abuse, but I think that AP for Top Jockey at the festival is too big at 15/2

Just going through the races with the paper favourites at this point in time and I have Ruby on most Favs, followed by AP, then possible T Scu before Barry G.

Yes some are very subjective, and Barry looks to have three or four certainties, but lets look a bit deeper.

Beyond the Championship races, most of Barry's rides all look like they have very little up their sleeve, most have won a couple already this season, and have few secrets from the handicapper by now, and some of the borderline stuff, Oscar Whisky, Captain Conan, Grandouet, Hadrians Approach, are real opinion splitters.

Ruby has the strongest book on paper at the moment, to my eyes, no doubt, but again apart from a couple of Nichols hotpots(which i can still see getting beat) his handicap book is quite light.

Onto McCoy, and after waiting until Day 4 for his first winner last year, I expect him to be off and running Day 1 Race 1 with My Tent. Confidence sky high.

With a good book of rides and JP buying everything that moves at the moment, Cheltenham winners are obviously the objective, and with about 10 JP horses in every handicap, he is very strong across the board. (he is also gonna ride a couple for Roger )

I would have thought once his full book is known he is more likely a 4/9/2 chance so at 15/2 with BlueS, I recommend a £20 week long sweat.

Thanks Adzy.

I really like that, it has mileage for plenty of fun all week, & I did suggest we looked at the Specials Markets.

Plenty of variance in it, he might get injured on Day One, or even before it starts, but that is the nature of the beast, & I think it does no harm to spread our eggs around as much as possible. With any luck, as you suggest, his price could well shorten considerably.

We have £20 @ 15/2, Blue Square, A P McCoy to be Top Cheltenham Jockey.

ON

Selection 1
 
Selection Tony McCoy @ 15/2 
Market
 Top Festival Jockey
 
Event
 Cheltenham Festival Specials
Festival Jockey Markets
2013-03-12 13:30:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Win Single
 
Unit Stake
 £20.00
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £20.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2013-03-08 14:08:02
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000193
 

[Doobs]

Last week I wandered into my lounge and my missus was watching American Idol.  Despite this show now entering its twelth season, her tolerance for watching this complete shite shows no sign of abating.

I had a chat for a whilst a series of complete dullards came on and performed the usual dreary ballards.

Then the fourth fella came on.  His name was Burnell, the producers filled us in on his back story and this is positive for two reasons, they let you know the back story of the people they like, and his back story is a good one.  His home was wrecked by Katrina, he had nothing, yet his spirit has got him through, yada yada.   All the judges appear to love him, and I think we can rely on Randi and Nicki bigging him up all the way to the final.

Here is Burnell:



Nicki said something that struck a chord in amongst the banal, she would pay to watch him sing now, and I can see exactly where she is coming from.

I have bitten the bullet, and lost half an hour of my life trawling through his rivals, and the females can all sing exceptionally well, and Angela Miller seems to be the best of the lot.  But she is 11/5 joint favourite and I expect 5 similar females are going to be splitting the vote with each other all the way to the final.  And to be frank, I can't see me parting with a dime to ever watch any of them sing.

Our man is 20/1 with bet365, get on quick, I guess it won't take much to make that 20s disappear.  Suggest at least £25 for the 10 week sweat.  

[bobby1]

cheers Tonji, loved his hat btw, hope he takes it off when he is driving tho.

[tikay]

I think, once Cheltenham is completed, we ought to have a debrief, analyse all the types of bets via the rear-view mirror, to see where we can improve for future Festivals & the like.

It can do no harm, so long as nobody gets personal about those that went south.