Tips for Tikay

[MajorMajor]

I got the mickleson place up. He led the greens in reg, if only his putter worked a bit better I might have had a better sweat!

[tikay]

How's the figures looking?

Ha!

Welcome back Big Man.

Elder out, Elder in.

Sort us out for Cheltenham Dave. We've bet the bloody shop.

[tikay]

Daily Report @ 0750, Monday March 11th

LOSS on Month = £10.85

Outstanding bets £1,400




https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=22

[aaron1867]

I'm going to put this one out there, because I think it will spark healthy discussion...

Cardiff v Leicester - Cardiff to win are 11/8.

Two out of form teams, probably Leicester more so & it seems like the fans are losing patience with Pearson.

Cardiff been better at home earlier in season, but comfortably have the best home record against a team who are the joint 3rd lowest scorers in the league.

It would seem Leicester would need to score at least a couple to hold any hope of getting something here and looking at how out of form they are & lack of goals away, seems a big ask, not to mention there will be a lot fresher legs in the Cardiff team having not played at the weekend.

I think 11/8 just represents enough value to get on here and I am confident we will have a decent sweat here. Going to recc a big one for me at £80.

Would like to hear Tighty's view on this? If he is the one who can validate my reasoning then he can!

------------------------------

Also not a recc for Fred.... but would like to hear views on Barnsley at 2's at home to Brighton? It seems Brighton have one available striker...

[aaron1867]

Just for you stato's:

Stats365 has a projected end of Season table created by adding the number of points still to be gained on current form to the actual number of points. On that basis, these are the final positions:


Cardiff City 89.7
Watford 84.9
------------------------
Crystal Palace 83.9
Hull City 83.0
Bolton Wanderers 76.5
Nottingham Forest 75.0
-----------------------
Brighton 73.0
Leicester City 68.0
Leeds United 63.0
Middlesbrough 61.2
Sheffield Wednesday 60.0
Birmingham City 59.5
Barnsley 56.7
Charlton Athletic 56.0
Blackpool 55.9
Blackburn Rovers 55.0
Burnley 55.0
Ipswich Town 54.7
Huddersfield Town 53.0
Peterborough United 53.0
Bristol City 50.7
----------------------------------
Derby County 49.5
Millwall 47.3
Wolverhampton 45.3

[tikay]

Daily Summary, @ 0800, Monday March 11th

We lost £65 yesterday, & said hello to red figures for March.

A terrific bet, £100 @ 3/1 for Spurs to win, looked like getting home, but just when they looked set, Mr Bokky Bokkerson arrived & did his thing. It really is very hard to catch Liverpool right.

We did find a winner though, Bobby1 gave us the Daft Hat bet, & we nicked £35 on The Rally of Mexico of all things, so that eased the 5pur2 pain a tad.

We had no interest in the Golf, which Mr Woods won by 2 strokes. Rory seemed to find his way again on the final day, so next week's golf betting markets will see them at the head of things, which will make room for value below.

Our only other action yesterday was to get on "No Grand Slam Winner" with some alacrity. Our only other remaining 6N bet, on Tualigi, did not improve, so that is in a bit of a hole. 

Lull before the Cheltenham storm now, & I don't imagine there will be much action today, except for any Offers which may come in.

There will not be a Cheltenham Update this morning, as nothing has changed, but there will be Daily Previews & Summaries of our positions, & the first one will be this evening.

A lost sheep in the form of Dubai re-appeared yesterday, though he's rarely been called a sheep. Hold onto your seat belts, triple MAX on Trap 6 in the 9.40 Romford incoming.  These days, Dubai often runs with Eso Kral, the legend who gave us Walsall to be relegated, then, on Saturday, gave us Walsall to be Promoted. They drew on Saturday.

 

[tikay]

I'm going to put this one out there, because I think it will spark healthy discussion...

Cardiff v Leicester - Cardiff to win are 11/8.

Two out of form teams, probably Leicester more so & it seems like the fans are losing patience with Pearson.

Cardiff been better at home earlier in season, but comfortably have the best home record against a team who are the joint 3rd lowest scorers in the league.

It would seem Leicester would need to score at least a couple to hold any hope of getting something here and looking at how out of form they are & lack of goals away, seems a big ask, not to mention there will be a lot fresher legs in the Cardiff team having not played at the weekend.

I think 11/8 just represents enough value to get on here and I am confident we will have a decent sweat here. Going to recc a big one for me at £80.

Would like to hear Tighty's view on this? If he is the one who can validate my reasoning then he can!

------------------------------

Also not a recc for Fred.... but would like to hear views on Barnsley at 2's at home to Brighton? It seems Brighton have one available striker...

Good stuff Aaron, the man who tipped Man City to win 5-0 @ 19/1, & got the stamp of approval from Super-Nit hector.

It is not until tomorrow, so let us hear what the lads say. My initial gut feeling is that the price is not far off, but I'm usually wrong, so we shall see.

[atdc21]

Hi tikay and all. suggestion for a bet.
Champion bumper  THE LIQUIDATOR 25/1 w.hill.    only 24 on betfair, ladbrokes 16/1.  Pipes know how to win this race had it off with liberman few years ago, this one has had some nice runs and dont think 25/1 will last too long.  gl  £5 ew for interest maybe.

[Tal]

At the risk of value-widdling, does Fred fancy having a week long sweat on top trainer or jockey? Can be reasonably confident £20 on Nicholls or Henderson will still be alive on Friday morning.

Tighty put up Nicholls iirc?

[tikay]

Please be aware, I will be Offline from 9am this morning until early evening, so bet placement will not be possible until much later today.

I'm off to The Vic shortly (a three train journey, details later) for the EPT. Yup, me, at a £5,000 Poker Tourney. Filming, not playing, I hasten to add.  I may indulge in tomorrow's £500 O8 though, along with Mr Doobs. I shall need some winners to pay that bill. 

[tikay]

Hi tikay and all. suggestion for a bet.
Champion bumper  THE LIQUIDATOR 25/1 w.hill.    only 24 on betfair, ladbrokes 16/1.  Pipes know how to win this race had it off with liberman few years ago, this one has had some nice runs and dont think 25/1 will last too long.  gl  £5 ew for interest maybe.

Thank you atdc.

Jeez, a Bumper race @ Cheltenham, a tough one to crack is that.

Any views, anyone?

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/cheltenham-festival/champion-bumper/winner

The race is on Wednesday, so if agreed, I can get on tonight.

[tikay]

At the risk of value-widdling, does Fred fancy having a week long sweat on top trainer or jockey? Can be reasonably confident £20 on Nicholls or Henderson will still be alive on Friday morning.

Tighty put up Nicholls iirc?

Interested, yes, but we are already on Top Jockey.

Top Trainer was discussed as I recall, but so far, we have no interest.

The Cheltenham Specials are all here.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/racing-specials/long-term

"Winning Distances" would be fun, a sweat every race, but whether there is value to be spotted is another matter.

[Tal]

Right-ho!

If Fred is already on Top Not Quite As Little Bloke, that should keep him adequately satiated

[tikay]

Right-ho!

If Fred is already on Top Not Quite As Little Bloke, that should keep him adequately satiated

We have £20 @ 15/2, AP Mccoy.

He was last Top Jockey at the Festival FIFTEEN years ago, a testament to his longevity.

Ruby Walsh has been Top Jockey there in 6 of the last 9 yers, including 4 of the last 5.

Wikipidea is ful of interesing & incredible stats like that, including this purler...


Large amounts of money are gambled during Cheltenham Festival week

No, it really says that. I'm sure they make this stuff up.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheltenham_Festival

[Tal]

Citation needed, obv.