Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Gelfand beats Aronian.

Fred should be pleased with this.

= we are now clear leader?

Yup, Fred approves muchly.

[Tal]

One game still going on, but it is:

Carlsen 6/9
Aronian 5½
Kramnik 5

Our man has now played the other two twice. Kramnik plays Aronian tomorrow, so Carlsen has the chance to make some ground on at least one of them.

[Tal]

Also...


COME ON, PEMBROKE!!!!!!

[tikay]

Also...


COME ON, PEMBROKE!!!!!!

Currently slightly in arrears........

[Tal]

Also...


COME ON, PEMBROKE!!!!!!

Currently slightly in arrears........

Just a touch.

Variance, innit. Blooming Commies...

Two Pembroke people in the Boat Race at the weekend. Hope this isn't an omen.

[Tal]

Well that was just brutal.

[tikay]

Well that was just brutal.

Almost recovered!

[Tal]

The latest report on the chess is here:

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=58441.msg1742978#msg1742978



Svidler v Grischuk was a pretty special game, even though they drew. The chess equivalent of a 4-4 football match. Here, Svidler plays his move, presses the clock and looks up at the display of the positions in the other games to see what the others are playing for their openings.

[Tal]

Root goes to the new ball.

[TL900]

Warriors -1 vs Lakers seems like a lump imo, thoughts anyone?

Curry gametime decision but probably won't play and I think that is reflected in the line, but if he does play then its huge.

[redarmi]

Saw this too late but yeah I thought it was decent.

Onto a long term recommendation.  I have spent the last few days having a good look at the upcoming baseball season.  I don't normally like to tie up my capital for an entire season but I think there is a really good ante post bet in the American League East.  A bit of background.  The AL East is the glamour division in baseball because it has the Yankees and Redsox in it.  These two teams are as close as you get to consistently overbet teams in baseball because they have such huge fan bases.  The rest of the division is made up of Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Devil Rays and the Baltimore Orioles.  

We can pretty much rule out the Yankees and Red Sox being any value.  The Yankees range from a laughable 9/4 with Boyles to a more realistic but still too short 19/5 with Hills.  To give you an idea in the ESPN preview I read they were described as the worst Yankees team since 1991 but of more importance they are going to be starting the season without their superstars A-Rod and Derek Jeter and A-Rod might not play until it is too late to retrieve the situation and Curtis Granderson is out until May too. In spring training they have been the worst team in the Grapefruit League.  Worse than the Marlins even and living in Miami I know the Marlins might just about be the worst team in baseball this year. Their pitching staff is still fairly good but I don't really see how they aren't 10/1 - 16/1 shots.  

Boston are a top priced 8/1.  They were a poor team last year and have made a lot of changes but they haven't gotten themselves a star pitcher and they play in a league where you really need that to go up against the likes of Sabathia, Verlander etc.  The rest of their pitching staff is a bit meh in my opinion and they had the fourth worst bullpen in all of baseball last year (although this tends to be a stat that regresses to the mean from what I have read).  So Basically we have a team that might be good enough on offense and wont be good enough on defense.  I think they are 14/1 shots.
  
Onto the Blue Jays.  Last week I drove my parents up to see some friends of theirs from Toronto who come down every year to Florida for a bit of sun but also to attend The Blue Jays spring training.  This is interesting because the bookies have installed the Blue Jays as the short as 11/8 to win the AL East on the back of some eye catching off season trades but in spring training apparently they haven't been putting it together and are 3rd from bottom of the Grapefruit league with Miami and the Yankees the only teams below.  My parents friends didn't seem too optimistic and my analysis of the situation was similar.  They should get better and it is probably a fairly weak league this year but even so I don't really see how they are not 3/1 shots.

The Orioles are a team I am struggling to figure out a bit.  The finished the season last year like a train to make the playoffs but they also appear to have been a bit lucky.  they went 16-2 in extra innings games and that can only really be down to running good and the traditionally best way to measure how good a team is is to measure runs scored against runs allowed and this tends to back up the idea that they were lucky to reach the playoffs last year.  All that said they seem to have carried the momentum into Spring training and currently lead the Grapefruit league.  I honestly have no idea whether it will be the team that played the first half to tw thirds of last year or the last third/spring training team that will show up.  They are quoted at a best priced 10-1 and that seems about right to me......possibly a bit generous but I wouldn't tie up my money for the year.

That leaves us with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.  Probably up there with the most unfashionable franchises in US sports.  If you have kept up you will know that to 100% I make the Devil Rays about a 5/4 shot to win this division.  That is clearly crazy because they are available at 7/2 with Bwin and 10/3 with Betfred, Boyles, Tote and Sportingbet.  Now all of these firms in my view have no clue what they are doing.  They pay peanuts and they get monkeys.  The firms with half a clue including Pinnacle are 13/5 and Paddy Power are as short as 9/4.  Maybe these firms would be closer to me if their competitiors had priced the market differently i don't know and I am willing to concede I could have slightly overrated the importance of Spring training but I am also aware that it isn't that important and more importantly I think the devil Rays are potentially a very good team.  Theyb were massively unlucky to miss the playoffs last year and this was largely down to Baltimores luck mentioned earlier.  Baltimore outscored their opponents by 8 runs last year.  Tampa outscored their opponents by over 100 runs last year yet Baltimore went to the playoffs and Tampa didnt despite winning 90 games.  They have won 90 games or more in four of the last five seasons and this year they return most of last years team including Cy Young winning pitcher David Price so you could argue they have the bestb starting pitcher in the league which will give them a huge advantage against the other American league star pitchers in the tight games.  Maybe they aren't 5/4 shots, in fact they probably aren't 5/4 shots and I have probably underrated almost every other team in the league but they sure as hell aren't 7/2 shots.  They arent even 3/1 shots.  Sometimes in betting you work hard on something and you just get a feeling you have a big edge and the odds compilers have got it completely wrong and this is it for me.  It's my 49ers. 

[redarmi]

Obviously wouldnt put anyone off them for the American League Penant at 10/1+ or World Series at 20/1+ either although they are nothing like as strong.

[TightEnd]

The Trott bet lost in extraordinary circumstances

England were six down just after lunch and that was that

I wake up to see Prior has hit 110 not out over 289 minutes batting, including hitting the ball onto his stumps and the bails not coming off,

and Prior has shepherded the tail to the draw (Broad 6, Anderson 0, Panesar 2 not out), England 9 wickets down!


If anyone was awake that would have been quite the sweat! (for Trott, or if, like me, you had the draw and had given up on it!)

[Ant040689]

A little snap of some extraordinary diving from Monty to keep his wicket with not many balls to go...

Click to see full-size image.

And you are right, it was a great sweat.

[tikay]

Saw this too late but yeah I thought it was decent.

Onto a long term recommendation.  I have spent the last few days having a good look at the upcoming baseball season.  I don't normally like to tie up my capital for an entire season but I think there is a really good ante post bet in the American League East.  A bit of background.  The AL East is the glamour division in baseball because it has the Yankees and Redsox in it.  These two teams are as close as you get to consistently overbet teams in baseball because they have such huge fan bases.  The rest of the division is made up of Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Devil Rays and the Baltimore Orioles. 

We can pretty much rule out the Yankees and Red Sox being any value.  The Yankees range from a laughable 9/4 with Boyles to a more realistic but still too short 19/5 with Hills.  To give you an idea in the ESPN preview I read they were described as the worst Yankees team since 1991 but of more importance they are going to be starting the season without their superstars A-Rod and Derek Jeter and A-Rod might not play until it is too late to retrieve the situation and Curtis Granderson is out until May too. In spring training they have been the worst team in the Grapefruit League.  Worse than the Marlins even and living in Miami I know the Marlins might just about be the worst team in baseball this year. Their pitching staff is still fairly good but I don't really see how they aren't 10/1 - 16/1 shots. 

Boston are a top priced 8/1.  They were a poor team last year and have made a lot of changes but they haven't gotten themselves a star pitcher and they play in a league where you really need that to go up against the likes of Sabathia, Verlander etc.  The rest of their pitching staff is a bit meh in my opinion and they had the fourth worst bullpen in all of baseball last year (although this tends to be a stat that regresses to the mean from what I have read).  So Basically we have a team that might be good enough on offense and wont be good enough on defense.  I think they are 14/1 shots.
 
Onto the Blue Jays.  Last week I drove my parents up to see some friends of theirs from Toronto who come down every year to Florida for a bit of sun but also to attend The Blue Jays spring training.  This is interesting because the bookies have installed the Blue Jays as the short as 11/8 to win the AL East on the back of some eye catching off season trades but in spring training apparently they haven't been putting it together and are 3rd from bottom of the Grapefruit league with Miami and the Yankees the only teams below.  My parents friends didn't seem too optimistic and my analysis of the situation was similar.  They should get better and it is probably a fairly weak league this year but even so I don't really see how they are not 3/1 shots.

The Orioles are a team I am struggling to figure out a bit.  The finished the season last year like a train to make the playoffs but they also appear to have been a bit lucky.  they went 16-2 in extra innings games and that can only really be down to running good and the traditionally best way to measure how good a team is is to measure runs scored against runs allowed and this tends to back up the idea that they were lucky to reach the playoffs last year.  All that said they seem to have carried the momentum into Spring training and currently lead the Grapefruit league.  I honestly have no idea whether it will be the team that played the first half to tw thirds of last year or the last third/spring training team that will show up.  They are quoted at a best priced 10-1 and that seems about right to me......possibly a bit generous but I wouldn't tie up my money for the year.

That leaves us with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.  Probably up there with the most unfashionable franchises in US sports.  If you have kept up you will know that to 100% I make the Devil Rays about a 5/4 shot to win this division.  That is clearly crazy because they are available at 7/2 with Bwin and 10/3 with Betfred, Boyles, Tote and Sportingbet.  Now all of these firms in my view have no clue what they are doing.  They pay peanuts and they get monkeys.  The firms with half a clue including Pinnacle are 13/5 and Paddy Power are as short as 9/4.  Maybe these firms would be closer to me if their competitiors had priced the market differently i don't know and I am willing to concede I could have slightly overrated the importance of Spring training but I am also aware that it isn't that important and more importantly I think the devil Rays are potentially a very good team.  Theyb were massively unlucky to miss the playoffs last year and this was largely down to Baltimores luck mentioned earlier.  Baltimore outscored their opponents by 8 runs last year.  Tampa outscored their opponents by over 100 runs last year yet Baltimore went to the playoffs and Tampa didnt despite winning 90 games.  They have won 90 games or more in four of the last five seasons and this year they return most of last years team including Cy Young winning pitcher David Price so you could argue they have the bestb starting pitcher in the league which will give them a huge advantage against the other American league star pitchers in the tight games.  Maybe they aren't 5/4 shots, in fact they probably aren't 5/4 shots and I have probably underrated almost every other team in the league but they sure as hell aren't 7/2 shots.  They arent even 3/1 shots.  Sometimes in betting you work hard on something and you just get a feeling you have a big edge and the odds compilers have got it completely wrong and this is it for me.  It's my 49ers. 

Morning (?) Stu.

How much are you recommending, please?

Fred has reserved his position @ 100/30, as I've placed the bet this morning, but I do not know how much you are suggesting. I've taken £100 @ 0/30, but if you think £50 is right for Fred, I'll take the other £50 myself.

The bet, for proofing purposes, is with BetFred, & is here....

£100.00 Single
Market Selection Price Hcp
AL East
AL East Division Winner
 Tampa Bay Rays 10/3 
Total stake £ 100.00
Estimated return £ 433.33

Full stake £ 100.00 Full estimated return £ 433.33

At this stage, until you suggest a figure, it is NOT a Fred bet.

I like this bet for lots of reasons, but in short....

1) Value, obviously. When you go to that much trouble to make the case, we know you are serious.

2) These long-term sweats are tremendous fun, & good for Fred. The Zags bet by moony, the Barnet & 49ers bets by Camel, the Suarez bet, the Chess bet by Tal, by Moony on the Zags, the various cricket bets, we had so much fun with those.

3) The only caveat I have is that they work better if someone - not necessarily you, as I know you are busy - can do us regular Updates, after every game ideally, as happened with those bets I mentioned above. We don't need chapter & verse, the length of the Updates by Tal & Tighty on the Chess & Cricket are more than adequate. Any volunteers?

PS - Don't forget to let us know how much you are recommending we should bet. When you do that, we will officialise the bet for MereAudit pourposes.

Looking forward to this, we need some more long-term sweats.