Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Latest report on the action in London:

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=58441.msg1744576#msg1744576


One of my favourite pics, this:



Carlsen pops over to see how Aronian is getting on against Ivanchuk.


Our man has the chance to do the double over a second player on Thursday when he takes on Alexander Grischuk with the Black pieces.

I would expect at least one of Kramnik and Aronian to win tomorrow, with Kramnik white against a tiring Radjabov and Aronian facing a relatively indifferent Svidler.

4 games remain. Could be going down to the wire, but I think we're having fun watching it play out

[tikay]

Latest report on the action in London:

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=58441.msg1744576#msg1744576


One of my favourite pics, this:



Carlsen pops over to see how Aronian is getting on against Ivanchuk.


Our man has the chance to do the double over a second player on Thursday when he takes on Alexander Grischuk with the Black pieces.

I would expect at least one of Kramnik and Aronian to win tomorrow, with Kramnik white against a tiring Radjabov and Aronian facing a relatively indifferent Svidler.

4 games remain. Could be going down to the wire, but I think we're having fun watching it play out

Grand photo that.

Does it bother a player who is in the zone when someone (as in photo) wanders across & watches like that?

I do think Carlsen could use a "plus day" where he nicks a win & the other two draw, it is all rather close, one mistake & we are toast. Guess a dead-heat remains a possibility.

Betfair go 1.18 Carlsen, 6 Aronian, 20 Kramnik, 200 bar. 

[tikay]

Daily Report @ 0900, Thursday March 28th

PROFIT on Month = £934.60

Outstanding bets £1,103.50




https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=22

[tikay]

Daily Summary, @ 0910, Thursday March 27th

Nothing completed yesterday, so it is "as you were".

18 bets completed on Tuesday, & nil yesterday, talk about hot & cold.

We have built up some portfolios & forward stuff which should sustain us for a while.

We have stuff for...

The entire cricket season

The entire Baseball season.

The Masters Golf (just one so far)

The Grand National (two so far)

We have a bunch of season long football bets approaching their climax, Easter is often crucial in these markets.

Chess - finishes this weekend.

Greyhound Derby - three picks so far.

World Snooker Championships, 4 selections.

Champions League

Basketball - the MVP bet on LeBron must be completing soon?

Europa League

Lions Tour

FI World Champion

Flat Season Classics.

All good stuff, there should be a sweat or two there.

Oh, & two Eurovision Song Contest bets. Ugh.

[McGlashan]

Latest report on the action in London:

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=58441.msg1744576#msg1744576


One of my favourite pics, this:



Carlsen pops over to see how Aronian is getting on against Ivanchuk.


Our man has the chance to do the double over a second player on Thursday when he takes on Alexander Grischuk with the Black pieces.

I would expect at least one of Kramnik and Aronian to win tomorrow, with Kramnik white against a tiring Radjabov and Aronian facing a relatively indifferent Svidler.

4 games remain. Could be going down to the wire, but I think we're having fun watching it play out

Grand photo that.

Does it bother a player who is in the zone when someone (as in photo) wanders across & watches like that?

I do think Carlsen could use a "plus day" where he nicks a win & the other two draw, it is all rather close, one mistake & we are toast. Guess a dead-heat remains a possibility.

Betfair go 1.18 Carlsen, 6 Aronian, 20 Kramnik, 200 bar. 

Tal any chance you can find a picture of Aronian's yellow shirt? Even by his own high standards Lev was looking pretty dapper yesterday.

Regarding the tie break situation I got a twitchy bum upon finding out that the first rule of the tie-break is the player who has won the most games wins and that would be Aronian. 

[Tal]

Latest report on the action in London:

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=58441.msg1744576#msg1744576


One of my favourite pics, this:



Carlsen pops over to see how Aronian is getting on against Ivanchuk.


Our man has the chance to do the double over a second player on Thursday when he takes on Alexander Grischuk with the Black pieces.

I would expect at least one of Kramnik and Aronian to win tomorrow, with Kramnik white against a tiring Radjabov and Aronian facing a relatively indifferent Svidler.

4 games remain. Could be going down to the wire, but I think we're having fun watching it play out

Grand photo that.

Does it bother a player who is in the zone when someone (as in photo) wanders across & watches like that?

I do think Carlsen could use a "plus day" where he nicks a win & the other two draw, it is all rather close, one mistake & we are toast. Guess a dead-heat remains a possibility.

Betfair go 1.18 Carlsen, 6 Aronian, 20 Kramnik, 200 bar. 

Half a point clear shouldn't be a 2/11 shot, even though Carlsen has the bottom four to play; it is close, but no one was going to win this tournament by a distance. Kramnik and Aronian still have to play each other, so we have that in reserve.

If the players are tied after 14 games, there could be a playoff on Tuesday. Really would prefer not to have that sweat!

As to your question, it wouldn't bother these guys. That is partly because fellow players are mindful of not disturbing them, so they'd keep a distance, move slowly and not rustle a crisp packet, unlike some of the kibitzers.

(Think we discussed kibitzers a while back..?)

[tikay]

Latest report on the action in London:

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=58441.msg1744576#msg1744576


One of my favourite pics, this:



Carlsen pops over to see how Aronian is getting on against Ivanchuk.


Our man has the chance to do the double over a second player on Thursday when he takes on Alexander Grischuk with the Black pieces.

I would expect at least one of Kramnik and Aronian to win tomorrow, with Kramnik white against a tiring Radjabov and Aronian facing a relatively indifferent Svidler.

4 games remain. Could be going down to the wire, but I think we're having fun watching it play out

Grand photo that.

Does it bother a player who is in the zone when someone (as in photo) wanders across & watches like that?

I do think Carlsen could use a "plus day" where he nicks a win & the other two draw, it is all rather close, one mistake & we are toast. Guess a dead-heat remains a possibility.

Betfair go 1.18 Carlsen, 6 Aronian, 20 Kramnik, 200 bar.  

Tal any chance you can find a picture of Aronian's yellow shirt? Even by his own high standards Lev was looking pretty dapper yesterday.

Regarding the tie break situation I got a twitchy bum upon finding out that the first rule of the tie-break is the player who has won the most games wins and that would be Aronian.  

This jobbie?

Not sure what the raised arms thing is, has he just realised he has made a terrible error?

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

any opinions on Sunderland to be relegated? they are currently 5/2 to go down with bet365.

they just announced that Fletcher and Cattermole are out for the rest of the season.

they are 4 points above Wigan having played a game more, im just not sure how many points they will pick up the rest of the season with a tough run in.


Sunderland v
Man Utd
Sun 7th Apr 2013
Chelsea v
Sunderland
Sun 14th Apr 2013
Newcastle v
Sunderland
Sat 20th Apr 2013
Sunderland v
Everton
Mon 29th Apr 2013
A Villa v
Sunderland
Sat 4th May 2013
Sunderland v
Stoke City
Sun 12th May 2013
Sunderland v
Southampton
Sun 19th May 2013
Tottenham v
Sunderland
All Fixtures

Thanks for this Jim, seems to have generated plenty of discussion.

I think the concencus is that they may well go down, but that 5/2 is probably about right, unless we get further feedback. 

[Tal]

Would betting experts offer comment on laying some of our Carlsen bet, please?

My assessment would be he is in a better position than he was when we started (ldo, as the kids say) and that was ≈ 1.55. As McGlaschan correctly points out, if Carlsen draws a game where Aronian wins and their results for the other three games are the same, Aronian will win by dint of the third tie break (number of victories, after points and Head-to-Head). That, I would say, is always a risk with Aronian, as he tends to have fewer draws than everyone else, either winning or losing.

Carlsen cannot possibly be 2/11 to win. Maybe the symptom of an illiquid market. I would think he holes out here two out of three times and I would feel uncomfortable saying more than that. I'm not - as you are all too aware - a betting expert, so I hope the lay terms I'm throwing this out in make sense.

My question is: is it a good idea to lay off some of Fred's £100 investment or do we let it ride?

We are on the odds-on favourite and he is still odds on (more so than he was at the start) but I'm thinking the price might have swung too far the other way.

[tikay]

Thanks Tal.

We are on at an average price of 1.66.

[Simon Galloway]

Would betting experts offer comment on laying some of our Carlsen bet, please?

My assessment would be he is in a better position than he was when we started (ldo, as the kids say) and that was ≈ 1.55. As McGlaschan correctly points out, if Carlsen draws a game where Aronian wins and their results for the other three games are the same, Aronian will win by dint of the third tie break (number of victories, after points and Head-to-Head). That, I would say, is always a risk with Aronian, as he tends to have fewer draws than everyone else, either winning or losing.

Carlsen cannot possibly be 2/11 to win. Maybe the symptom of an illiquid market. I would think he holes out here two out of three times and I would feel uncomfortable saying more than that. I'm not - as you are all too aware - a betting expert, so I hope the lay terms I'm throwing this out in make sense.

My question is: is it a good idea to lay off some of Fred's £100 investment or do we let it ride?

We are on the odds-on favourite and he is still odds on (more so than he was at the start) but I'm thinking the price might have swung too far the other way.

If the price is wrong the other way, you don't just lay some off.  At a minimum, you close the position.  And you'd be correct to flip your position too.  If the price is wrong, it is wrong.  If we have had £100 on Carlsen to win, we should be looking to lay it for more than that, as the first £100 obv just closes out. 

[TightEnd]

This is definitely too late, by the way

http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/politics/british-politics/south-shields-by-election-e216944105-m228702791#

[Tal]

Good point, Simon. When you say it like that, it sounds obvious.

I will point out for clarity that if Carlsen were to lose and Aronian were to draw and they ended up on the same points, they would play off against each other for the spot, as they currently have the same number of wins.

It is easy to lose sight of what measure of tournament Aronian is having. He is absolutely at the top of his game and is achieving well above expectations. Carlsen is just performing slightly better.

Roughly akin to shooting a 62 at Augusta and finding Tiger/Rory is making all the headlines for his 61.

Can't imagine you'll get all £100 off on betfair. What would you make in profit if you did?

[McGlashan]

Yes Tal that was the shirt and it looked even better close up.

If this finishes a dead heat expect Aronian to have the highest number of wins. I can't see him losing one of his remaining 4 games. Even when he makes a mistake by overestimating his position thus coming off with the worst of it he shows an uncanny ability to get a draw in a spot many would lose.

During the writing of this post I've done many u-turns on the price. My general conclusion is Marathonbet's price of 1.19 is at best accurate or at worst a good bit too short. It really would require a lot of analysis too come to a more accurate conclusion and by then the next round will be underway

Suggestion: if possible green up by laying at 1.2

[Tal]

Quite a shirt, that!



This looks like some fun maths on the subject:

http://en.chessbase.com/Home/TabId/211/PostId/4009321/candidates-r10-the-odds-of-winning-the-event-280313.aspx

This would make Carlsen a 1/3 shot.

As for the comp itself, Aronian would need to get 9½/14 to stand a realistic chance of getting joint first (have to assume Carlsen scores at least 2½ out of his last 4 games). That, I think, would give each of them a rating performance in the 2900s, and that would be making huge headlines (at least in chess circles...)

In terms of the betting position, I'll be honest and say I'm twitchy. The price of Carlsen on the exchanges is, to my eye, too short. If I thought he were a genuine 1.18, I wouldn't be posting. I'd probably have just stuck up a picture of Hevad Khan dancing around like a loon at the WSOP by way of imminent celebration.