Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=58441.msg1745077#msg1745077

Latest report is up.

Der Kreissentafel:

Click to see full-size image.

[rfgqqabc]

I'm trying my hardest not to top up any interest I have in the Championship relegation battle, but baffled by the 8-1 price on Ipswich with BetVictor.

4 points above the relegation spots, worst goal difference and some of the teams around them have a game in hand. They are definitely not a team I look at and think "how the hell are they down there" because they simply are down there because they are no good and the MM rub has rubbed off lately.

I think 8's is too big here.

I know Fred already has a lot of interest in it already with Wolves and Birmingham, so doubtful we can get on here, but would recc upto £20 on this, but trying to figure out if this is any good for me personally too? I already have an interest in Wolves too.

Spin rank the bottom 5 in the same order as the bookies, but after those 5 they go, Blackpool, Huddersfield, Ipswich. Blackpool are 12/1 to go down, better than betfair although betfair is at 325% and there isn't a ton of liquidity on the outsiders. I feel like Blackpool should be a bet but if you want I imagine it would make sense to oppose Ipswich somehow on the spreads instead of backing them to go down if that takes your fancy.

I wasn't going to recommend anything but if an elder fancies a look at the price/run in it might be worth a dabble at least to trade, going on Blackpool have some tough games in the next 3.

Never mind that Mr rgqqqhhgddhhrfgfv, how is our bet on Donny to be Champions (£20 @ 12/1) looking?

We are roundabout 7/4 across the board and ~2.88 on betfair. SPIN also have us 2.5 points clear of second in their season long points index. Our run in is quite tough, Swindon will be a massive game as will Tranmere but they are both at home. Away at Brentford on the final day could be a tough one as well but hopefully it'll be a champagne party.  We play Coventry today (friday) and I'm hoping some off the field problems will negatively affect their performance but you never know in football. Intuitively 15/8 seems a touch big tomorrow but I won't be recommending. Interestingly Doncaster were mentioned in this game by someone (Mark275? sorry if im wrong) at 17/10 when Coventry had problems, and Doncaster have drifted slightly since then. Coventry announced they are playing in their home stadium until the end of the season, but had ten points deducted today. Hopefully this means the players aren't dreaming of the playoffs but rather sangria and safe new contracts elsewhere

[tikay]

I have a few IPL bets, but my laptop's hard drive has gone. Hopefully it will be back up tomorrow and I'll stick them up.

Excellent, look forward to those.

[tikay]

Daily Report @ 0910, Friday March 29th

PROFIT on Month = £868.60

Outstanding bets £1,103.50


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=22

[tikay]

Daily Summary, @ 0920, Friday March 29th

We lost £66 yesterday.

Two bets, 5,000 miles apartt, on RL & Baseball both went south.

We were on Under 50 in the RL, & it ended with 54 points.

In the Baseball, we were ahead by 3-2 after 6 innings, but the villains smashed 4 runs in a disastrous 7th innings, & we could only claw back 1.

[tikay]

vcbet gone 6 places on the national as of today

REMINDER

The National is a week tomorrow, & if those 6 places suggest we ought to have an interest, now is the time to start thinking.

At present, several Firms go 5 places, but only BetVictor are paying 6.

[Tal]

Today's opponent for Magnus Carlsen is the Ukrainian veteran, Vassily Ivanchuk.



Temperamental, unpredictable, moody? Yes.

But one of the most gifted players in the field (possibly his downfall - he sees so much that he struggles to do all his thinking in the time allowed) and blessed with the ability to retain a ready-to-access encyclopaedic knowledge of opening theory across the board in his head.

He's a daunting opponent but our man is a perfect foil, being calm, measured and better as the game goes on.

There is a question over whether Carlsen takes a risk today with the White pieces and has a go at putting some distance between himself and the two rivals (who play each other). I suspect he'll keep an eye on their game and assess the situation, if his own game is level.

Games start at 2pm.

[tikay]

Thanks Simon.

If those 2 results fall right for us today, we could be nearly over the line tonight.

A win for Carlsen, & the other two draw, would do nicely I think.

Fingers crossed.

[Doobs]

vcbet gone 6 places on the national as of today

REMINDER

The National is a week tomorrow, & if those 6 places suggest we ought to have an interest, now is the time to start thinking.

At present, several Firms go 5 places, but only BetVictor are paying 6.

I have trawled their prices and they are behind Betfair/others on all the horses.  So I think what you gain on the place, you lose on the win.  

They are NRNB too.  This means you get protection if you backed a horse like former high class horse/gold cup winner/well handicapped good thing, Imperial Commander that has been a bit fragile.  

Can't post more, got to go.

[Tal]

Thanks Simon.

If those 2 results fall right for us today, we could be nearly over the line tonight.

A win for Carlsen, & the other two draw, would do nicely I think.

Fingers crossed.

Always a tough spot for the leader.

Best comparison I can give is being a stroke ahead in a major and having to decide whether to lay up for an easy 5 or take a wood on your second shot for the green.

Carlsen tends to favour being clubhouse leader and letting the other guy prove his worth. The tie breaks here might just sway his view.

[McGlashan]

Great stuff, thank you.

By the way, not sure we have welcomed you to Fred, I've seen you here recently, hope you hang with us for a while.

Thanks for the welcome Tikay. One suggestion for tonight is Betvic's 5.75 on Millwall away to a Leicester side that have lost 3 out of their last 5 home games.

[TightEnd]

I am on Millwall tonight at 5-1. Wasn't going to put it up, but I do consider it terrific value given our inconsistencies

[BigAdz]

Couple for consideration

Grand National
The recent profile, possibly due to course changes, has seen the quality horses fare a lot more consistently in the National the last few years. We have seen plenty of what I would call "nearly horses" doing well, those that have run well in top flight races without ever doing the biz.
One horses that fits the bill and has gone under the radar this year is What A Friend. No one can accuse me of any sentimental atatchment to this horse, I have never backed it, but it looks to have been its target for a while.
It ran in the race two years ago and was 12-1, when only 8 yrs old, normally a year or so too young for the trendmeisters. It jumped in the main very well but was hampered first time round at Beechers and D Jacob was almost out the side door and did well to recover. He went prominent until a mistake at the Canal Turn told late on , along with plenty of scrimaging. Nonetheless it was a good grounding over the fences.
Non runner no bet he is 50s generally, and for the brave he is 130s on Betty.

In the Masters, again a player I have never backed before. Lee Westwood.
Outstanding recent Masters record over last 3 years something like 4th last year, 11th year before and 2nd year before that.
Not been finishing well this year but reportedly happy with his game and getting in uninterupted practice, he is in a good place.
The Shell Open this week is set up to play like a Masters warm up with slick greens etc, and he has started well. Should he place high his price will contract and I like the fact they have a week between this and the Masters, so any glory and over confidence can subside.

at 28-1 6 places with PP, again I would ask for thoughts on a v quiet GF.

Happy easter all

[redarmi]

Nothing would make me happier than to see Lee Westwood win the Masters but I honestly couldn't back him with counterfeit at 28/1

[Horneris]

Not sure about Imperial Commander, top weight, unproven over the distance, coming off an injury would be enough to put me off. Utter class tho and Sam Twiston Davies is a huge positive.

The 2 I am on are Cappa Bleu and Chicago Grey, really like the profile of both. The appeal of backing them now has eased though as a lot of money has come for both recently.

Saying that I can't see anything keeping Cappa Bleu out of the 6 barring being brought down/falling obv. Chicago wouldn't be one for the EW though, will sit right out back and either stay there all along and tail off or cruise through all horses and come very close. Won over 4 miles at Chelt.