Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

At the risk of stealing Snowballs thunder Snakebite is overpriced again today with Skybet @11/8 for anyone that can get on.  

Also Ian White at 10/11 with Coral and BV is too big.  He was the same price v Webster for the World Championships (he lost) but White off TV is a far better player than he is on TV.  His floor results haven't been that great on paper this year but in 3 of the 4 tournaments he has ran in to MVG, RVB and Thornton early doors so the draw hasn't been kind to him.  97 and 98 averages here so far suggest there is nothing wrong with his form.  Recommend £44

Thanks Bazza, & I'm sure Snowy won't mind the Snakebite thing. He may even suggest we top up with a bit more, & if so we will, but I only had £20 for now as the price had gone already, so we are on @ 5/4.

I got on Ian White OK though.

We have.....

European Tour Darts today.....

£20 @ 5/4, Blue Square, Peter Wright to beat Wes Newton.

£44 @ 10/11, BetVictor, Ian White to beat Mark Webster.

ON


Peter Wright @ 5/4 
Market
 Match Winner
 
Event
 European Tour
Wes Newton v Peter Wright
2013-04-01 13:00:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Win Single
 
Unit Stake
 £20.00
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £20.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2013-04-01 11:03:31
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000203
 
___________

Ian White v Mark Webster
Ian White
(Match Betting)
Odds:  10/11
Stake:  44.00
Possible Return:  84.00

[TightEnd]

Number of tipsters: 34 including 11 new tipsters.


11 new tipsters is brilliant news.

[horseplayer]

I can't tell you how fit the thing is, or why its unraced at 4...but

Flat trainer James Fanshawe has Aqua Jeter running in the Huntingdon bumper at 5.10pm

In the last five years Fanshawe has only run two horses in bumpers. One won on the AW at Lingfield, one lost

Aqua Jeter is a half brother to a Japanese Group One Winner, and Master of Hounds currently running (and has won) in Group 1s worldwide most recently in Dubai on Saturday

Its dam is a Group Two Winner

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/huntingdon/17:10/winner

If the 5-1 is correct, suggest a speculative pop..

If it has any ability with its breeding, got to be a class above any of these...

my negative with this would be why a flat trainer with a very well bred horse is running in a huntingdon bumper with the flat season almost in full swing?

[TightEnd]

I can't tell you how fit the thing is, or why its unraced at 4...but

Flat trainer James Fanshawe has Aqua Jeter running in the Huntingdon bumper at 5.10pm

In the last five years Fanshawe has only run two horses in bumpers. One won on the AW at Lingfield, one lost

Aqua Jeter is a half brother to a Japanese Group One Winner, and Master of Hounds currently running (and has won) in Group 1s worldwide most recently in Dubai on Saturday

Its dam is a Group Two Winner

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/huntingdon/17:10/winner

If the 5-1 is correct, suggest a speculative pop..

If it has any ability with its breeding, got to be a class above any of these...

my negative with this would be why a flat trainer with a very well bred horse is running in a huntingdon bumper with the flat season almost in full swing?

agree and I don't know. Intriguing though.

[Chompy]

Agree with horsey in that, if Aqua Jeter was any good, he'd be waiting for the Flat.

Not saying it won't win but Fanshawe 0-4 at Hunningdon and I'd never back a Dansili on slow ground. I'm not a major sire stats boffin but Dansili's definitely prefer it quick:

Firm 17%, Good to firm 17%, Good 14%, Good to soft 9%, Soft 9%

[tikay]

March 2013 Figures

Closed bets: 157
Amount wagered: £4,106.53
Profit/loss: £1,087.60
ROI: 26.48%

Number of "sports" bet on: 16
Most popular:  Horses (56), Football (36), Rugby Union (13).
Most profitable: Horses (£621.45), Football (£397.30), Cricket (£112.02)
Least profitable: Formula1 (-£65.00), Golf (-£55.00), Rugby League (-£49.75)

Number of tipsters: 34 including 11 new tipsters.


Overall statistics (since February 2012)

Total closed bets: 1,327
Amount wagered: £44,984.42
Profit/loss: £2,393.86
ROI: 5.32%

Number of "sports" bet on: 28
Most popular:  Football (421), Horses(157), Golf (111), Cricket(106).

Most and least profitable sports (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
         
Sport   Total   Profit  Amt Bet   ROI   No.
Football   1,171.24   14,189.66   8.25   421
Horses   882.54   4,806.42   18.36   157
NFL   728.75   2,885.00   25.26   74
...
Tennis   -306.18   1,086.35   -28.18   28
Formula1   -353.00   470.00   -75.11   17
Basketball   -960.89   2,513.33   -38.23   54


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=4


Total number of tipsters: 116


Number of different bookies/exchanges: 22

Most and least profitable bookies (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
         
Bookie   Total   Profit  Amt Bet   ROI   No.
WilliamHill   1,230.34   4,667.00   26.36   128
Betfair   651.70   4,858.55   13.41   141
Bet365   462.22   2,135.84   21.64   82
...
Bwin   -312.30   990.00   -31.55   29
BetFred   -313.25   2,378.00   -13.17   82
StanJames   -331.95   2,243.20   -14.80   52


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=7

Terrific Report as always Vince, thank you.

11 NEW Tipsters - superb, that is the most New Tipsters in a single month in ages, if not ever. The more the better, & even if we sometimes make bad bets with newcomers, it is a good inverstment, the more people that contribute & learn, as most of us have, the better. In amongst those Newbies may be some really great additions to Team Fred.

This caught my eye, too....

Most popular:  Horses (56), Football (36), Rugby Union (13).
Most profitable: Horses (£621.45), Football (£397.30), Cricket (£112.02)

Clearly, Cheltenham skewed the numbers, but we were nimble on our feet & ran good, but most importantly, we did the right things, & did not get carried away, as I & I'm sure many others so often have in the past during Cheltenham week. Discipline!

Most (all?) of the football profit came from the Degens Doobs & Dubai & their scary World Cup Qualifiers FGS thing, which scared the life out of me, but went like clockwork, almost perfectly. Chip Prince & his Suarez Bet also contributed a meaty lump, too.

This was good, too...

Least profitable: Formula1 (-£65.00), Golf (-£55.00), Rugby League (-£49.75)

....because we have eliminated a lot of bad stuff, & chasing. There will always be bad months in all Sports, but we have chased losses in stuff we are not so good at in the past. The easiest way to improve our ROI is to reduce the BAD bets, in the Sports where we ain't so hot.

But most of all, look at these stats (overall, since we began), though we MUST tip our hat to Variance, who, I suspect, has been easy on us recently, & will no doubt bite us hard soon.....


Total closed bets: 1,327
Amount wagered: £44,984.42
Profit/loss: £2,393.86
ROI: 5.32%

5.32% ROI!

[tikay]

Donny & Birmingham overpriced today

Thanks Brent.

I think rfqqqjgtjhundfjhyg may have also tipped Donny, though I'm not 100% sure.

Any views (from anyone) on how much we should speculate?

Oddschecker is currently "Undergoing Emergency Maintenance" (= broken), so I'm not sure where & what the best prices are.

As soon as Oddschecker comes back up, we should take a look at the prices & hopefully get on.

Looks like we may start April with a bang. Hopefully a blue one.

[tikay]

Donny & Birmingham overpriced today

Oddschecker is now mended.

The Donny Prices are.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/doncaster-v-swindon/winner


...and Birmingham.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/birmingham-v-wolverhampton/winner



If those prices still rep value, how much should we consider? Weak, medium, strong?

Anyone?

[Tal]

Fred followers will undoubtedly breathe a sigh of well-earned relief at the news that the Candidates Chess tournament comes to a close today.

Kramnik needs to better Carlsen's result today to spoil Fred's bet on the Norwegian.

I would expect a result between 6 and 7 tonight.

[hector62]

Wigan are mostly 1/6, so you must be fairly confident to oppose such a solid jolly. Braver than me, for sure.



I can not say that I am confident Mr T, but Hull KR beat Warrington who are the closest team to Wigan in terms of ability. I am confident that Hull KR win this game at least once in 5 attempts, considering the conditions, so at 9-2 it is value. I just hope that Mr Variance sees fit to be sitting in our sidecar today.

Excellent to see so many new tipsters this month.

I did see the 33-33 rugby score, I was on the overs. There have been a huge number of draws in both Union and League in the last 2 months.

[Snowball]

I like Bazzas White bet.
Other one I like today is Smith to beaf Sulovic at 8/11 with 365, need to be quick tho as it starts in 10mins

[tikay]

Fred followers will undoubtedly breathe a sigh of well-earned relief at the news that the Candidates Chess tournament comes to a close today.

Kramnik needs to better Carlsen's result today to spoil Fred's bet on the Norwegian.

I would expect a result between 6 and 7 tonight.

I shall be sad to see it end, win or lose, been tremendous fun, & especially your regular Reports, photos & updates.

Eyes will be glued to the screen for updates this evening.

We have £100 @ 1.67, approx.

[tikay]

I like Bazzas White bet.
Other one I like today is Smith to beaf Sulovic at 8/11 with 365, need to be quick tho as it starts in 10mins

Thanks Snowy.


Unbelievably, Bet365 Restricted me to.....£4!

Anyway, we took it, every little helps I suppose.

We have £4 @ 8/11, Bet365, Smith to beat Suljovic.

ON

Andy Smith @ 8/11
£4.00 Single 01/04/2013 11:51:58 4.00 0.00

[tikay]

Wigan are mostly 1/6, so you must be fairly confident to oppose such a solid jolly. Braver than me, for sure.



I can not say that I am confident Mr T, but Hull KR beat Warrington who are the closest team to Wigan in terms of ability. I am confident that Hull KR win this game at least once in 5 attempts, considering the conditions, so at 9-2 it is value. I just hope that Mr Variance sees fit to be sitting in our sidecar today.

Excellent to see so many new tipsters this month.

I did see the 33-33 rugby score, I was on the overs. There have been a huge number of draws in both Union and League in the last 2 months.

Ha, great photo. If only the lady in the sidecar were smoking a pipe......

[tikay]

Donny & Birmingham overpriced today

Oddschecker is now mended.

The Donny Prices are.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/doncaster-v-swindon/winner


...and Birmingham.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/birmingham-v-wolverhampton/winner



If those prices still rep value, how much should we consider? Weak, medium, strong?

Anyone?

Just realised that the Doncaster game starts at 12.15, so imminent.

In the absence of feedback, we have had a nitty £20 @ 2/1 with BetVictor, Doncaster.

Full details to follow.

ON