Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

I can't tell you how fit the thing is, or why its unraced at 4...but

Flat trainer James Fanshawe has Aqua Jeter running in the Huntingdon bumper at 5.10pm

In the last five years Fanshawe has only run two horses in bumpers. One won on the AW at Lingfield, one lost

Aqua Jeter is a half brother to a Japanese Group One Winner, and Master of Hounds currently running (and has won) in Group 1s worldwide most recently in Dubai on Saturday

Its dam is a Group Two Winner

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/huntingdon/17:10/winner

If the 5-1 is correct, suggest a speculative pop..

If it has any ability with its breeding, got to be a class above any of these...

As a matter of interest, Rich, how did you, not a student of horse racing form as far as I am aware, chance upon that, and all the supporting evidence?

Incredible mind you must have!

As to the bet, beware of well-bred talking horses with winning  half brothers. Not sure it counts for much.

Intriguing though, as you say, and you have seriously tempted me were it not for the wise words of horsey, and the slightly less so from Fen Bloke.  Bin day in St Neots s a day late this week due to the Bank Holiday, it gets him all of a tither.

[horseplayer]

suljovic appears to have topped up his average by 25 points from yesterday

[aaron1867]

Also like Birmingham price

[Snowball]

suljovic appears to have topped up his average by 25 points from yesterday

Not much you can say about that.

[TightEnd]

The IPL starts this week, an event guaranteed to send tikay into a giddy skip such is his passion for dancing cheerleaders, ludicrous time outs, constant adverts and Dulux pyjama kits

This was a lot of fun on the thread last year

It is possible to make a case for a lot of teams to win it, all have talent and the real opportunity is in individual matches. I could construct an argument for any of the top 5 in the betting

For example Bangalore have Gayle, Dilshan and ABdeV...which is an exciting line up

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/indian-premier-league/indian-premier-league/winner


Mumbai will be captained by Ricky Ponting.

The runs will come from Sachin Tendulkar and Rohit Sharma - Nos 3 and 4 on the all-time IPL run lists

Pragyan Ojha is a top IPL spinner, Kieron Pollard is a big hitting all rounder and Lasith Malinga remains a big threat in this format.

In addition the likes of Glenn Maxwell (ref Hampshire/thread in 2012), Jacob Oram, Phil Hughes...

you can see the full squad at http://ipl-2013.co.in/mumbai-indians-team-for-ipl-2013/

Watch out also for Nathan Coulter Nile, quite a talent shown in the Big Bash this winter

Mumbai Indians have made the knockout stages each of the last three years and should give a great run for our money, which is all we can ask in such a competitive betting heat

Recommend £20 at  Mumbai Indians to win the IPL 11/2 (if you can get it)

At 11/2 you are guaranteed a good run for your money

[horseplayer]

suljovic appears to have topped up his average by 25 points from yesterday

Not much you can say about that.

i had a small bet on the youngster he beat yesterday outright

would have been better losing to him playing like he did today

[Snowball]

suljovic appears to have topped up his average by 25 points from yesterday

Not much you can say about that.

i had a small bet on the youngster he beat yesterday outright

would have been better losing to him playing like he did today

He averaged 74 yesterday but took out 3 x 100+ checkouts, seems pretty impossible.

[BigAdz]

Donny & Birmingham overpriced today

Oddschecker is now mended.

The Donny Prices are.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/doncaster-v-swindon/winner


...and Birmingham.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/birmingham-v-wolverhampton/winner



If those prices still rep value, how much should we consider? Weak, medium, strong?

Anyone?

Just realised that the Doncaster game starts at 12.15, so imminent.

In the absence of feedback, we have had a nitty £20 @ 2/1 with BetVictor, Doncaster.

Full details to follow.

ON

I would love to be able to understand the pricing of Donny and when they are value

We have heard in an earlier post Donny and Swindon are better bets away from home. Bank that.

Friday Donny are away(plus point) to 10th place Coventry who have been put into admin and are hardly on fire, yet deemed no value at nearly 2-1. Admittedly they lost, so good swerve.....but....

Today they are home to Swindon(so Swindon are away!) who are 4th(i think) and getting more results than Coventry. Donny have just lost, yet today we deem them value at 2-1 having said they are better away, and have just lost their last away game to a worse team than they play today who are also a good away team.

Confused? Yep, me too!!

But as I am deep into Donny for the title, my loyalties are with the bet, I just cant fathom the logic!

[tikay]

suljovic appears to have topped up his average by 25 points from yesterday

Not much you can say about that.

i had a small bet on the youngster he beat yesterday outright

would have been better losing to him playing like he did today

He averaged 74 yesterday but took out 3 x 100+ checkouts, seems pretty impossible.

Just shows how good I run - that was the one we only had £4 on because PP restricted us!

[Chompy]

Gg Snakeshite

[horseplayer]

a rare premiership bet for me tonight

17/20 - Over 35 Points Ladbrokes
EventFulham v QPR English
MarketBookings


4 bookings gets the bet home

The match was originally priced up with lee moss as the referee, there has been a switch to lee probert.

Probert averages slightly more cards per game than moss (3ish to 2.6ish this season)

Throw in probert sent hangeland off earlier in season, and since the turn of the year has upped his cards to an average of just over 4 per game (maybe co incidence)

could take the slightly bigger over 4 with bluesq but i prefer the over 3.5 with laddies

suggest £30

[tikay]

Donny & Birmingham overpriced today

Oddschecker is now mended.

The Donny Prices are.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/doncaster-v-swindon/winner


...and Birmingham.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/birmingham-v-wolverhampton/winner



If those prices still rep value, how much should we consider? Weak, medium, strong?

Anyone?

Just realised that the Doncaster game starts at 12.15, so imminent.

In the absence of feedback, we have had a nitty £20 @ 2/1 with BetVictor, Doncaster.

Full details to follow.

ON

I would love to be able to understand the pricing of Donny and when they are value

We have heard in an earlier post Donny and Swindon are better bets away from home. Bank that.

Friday Donny are away(plus point) to 10th place Coventry who have been put into admin and are hardly on fire, yet deemed no value at nearly 2-1. Admittedly they lost, so good swerve.....but....

Today they are home to Swindon(so Swindon are away!) who are 4th(i think) and getting more results than Coventry. Donny have just lost, yet today we deem them value at 2-1 having said they are better away, and have just lost their last away game to a worse team than they play today who are also a good away team.

Confused? Yep, me too!!

But as I am deep into Donny for the title, my loyalties are with the bet, I just cant fathom the logic!

I don't pretend to understand it either, but.....

a) Be careful of placing too much emphasis on that logic train you used, & on short term individual results.

b) By any proven pricing model, Donny should not be 2/1 today. Maths tells us that. Donny are top of the League, 4 points above Swindon, & at home. 

c) It is a bit awkward for me, but for the most part, in selecting what to bet or not to bet, I hold little view on the bet itself, but place my judgement (such as it is) in WHO Posts the bet. Brent very rarely Posts, & says very little, but when he does, I listen good. He understands betting very well, imo.

Al of which is nicely balanced by the fact that Donny were woeful first half, such that they are now, in-running......12/5!


It's all about opinions. Not simply getting them all right, but getting more right than wrong.

Bit like your Westwood thing - it is just opinions, none of us know with certainty whether Westwood Mark 2 will turn up at Augusta, we'd all be millionaires if we did, but we have to take a basket of views & opinions. 

[tikay]

Gg Snakeshite

Whoops!

Once again, we only had £20 on him today, plus the £ Outright.

We have £44 on White, he can rescue us........

[tikay]

Tofino Bay withdrawn from national betting. Trainer states its going for a Novice chase at limerick instead...

Whoops again.

Think we are NRNB though. "I think" = "I hope"......

[tikay]

Tofino Bay withdrawn from national betting. Trainer states its going for a Novice chase at limerick instead...

Whoops again.

Think we are NRNB though. "I think" = "I hope"......

I quoted a Post that disappeared.

Did I just get April-Fooled?

Bleurgh.