Tips for Tikay

[bobby1]

Thread remains too nitty imo.

Very keen on Poshies tomorrow, so...

Also have a £10 double on Posh-Posh H-T/F-T (6/1) and Dwighty Gayle first goal (7/1). Double pays 55/1

I don't know about too nitty but Mrs Merton style I do wonder , if it was done tastefully, is there is a cricket match or series anywhere in the world that we might consider not having a bet on?

There surely cannot be big enough mistakes in the prices to have a bet on a lot of games imo

I think the theory is that as well as value bets thread likes to have "interests" in the bigger competitions for a sweat over a period of a few weeks

sure Horsey, but if it interest we want then everyone following the thread will follow different things, we can have an interest on everything. Surely prices have to be the driver not interest?

[redarmi]

The value of the Tofino Bay bet was were taking the 33/1 non runner no bet when it was about that price with comm off in the pure antepost market on BF. On BF it is a loser but fixed odds you were getting a free shot at the correct BF price with your cash back if it didn't run.

On the Donny pricing, page 123 of todays RP has the list of home draw and away % in all the English and Scottish leagues this season. League one home teams have won 38% of home games this season, it is currently running at the worst % home advantage this season( probably to do with the fact there are a lot of teams tightly packed so not a lot of easier home games maybe)

So two teams of equal ability are running at a starting point home price of 13/8, so the game today says that Swindon are rated a slightly better team than Doncaster which Brent might or might not agree with anyway but he deffo disagrees with the supposed difference quoted by the prices.

In the Coventry game did Cov go off about 2.7/2.8 odd  ( I didn't see the off price), that price says that Donny are a better team than Coventry. So your opinion on the games are spot on Adz, they are a better team than Coventry and possibly a worse team than Swindon but the odds for both games say that anyway when using 13/8 the home as the starting point.

Not often I disagree with something you post Phil but not sure I agree with this.  There is no logical reason for home advantage to be less in League One than it is in the other leagues and the difference is probably within the realms of standard errors.   It is like every year a specific league starts out with really high goals and always ends up reverting to the mean.  Unless I could come up with a good hypothesis as to why home teams were only winning at a 38% clip I would be inclined to disregard the smaller sample in favour of the larger population size of all English leagues and this league historically and just go with the average of 45% or 5/4.  If we wanted to make an adjustment I think it is a serious mistake to go with 38% and maybe 43% or something in that region would be much better.    Similarly I rarely make an adjustment for home/away form because the sample size is generally so insignificant.  I will make an adjustment in specific circumstances if I can find a reason for a team to overpeform at home or away like geography ie would give Carlisle a bit more at home against, say Portsmouth, on the basis that it is a long trip and Pompey have no money so will probably have to do it by road etc.  Similarly I could see an argument that Chelsea have less home advantage due to the distractions with Rafa but I would really need to be convinced to make an adjustment or a significant sample size.

[rfgqqabc]

Thoughts on the Doncaster game. I have pretty much decided to recommend as few bets as possible, but draw attention to possible mispricings. I can't do the maths, and as such go from what I know and have been taught by others in regards to certain markets. 2/1 Doncaster surprised me, I knew the bookies felt we were outperforming, and I agree we are, but it seems a touch strange that they priced it up to that extent.

Onto the actual game, Tikay said we played poorly first half, but Swindon didn't touch the ball, or have a shot on target all game. We didn't create much in the first half, but pushed on in the second and could have had 2 or 3 easily. Their keeper made a good save from a header, and we had two decent penalty shouts. The one in the second half consisted of their defender using Chris Brown as a climbing frame, with little to no danger around. Nothing was given although anywhere else on the pitch it would have been a stonewall freekick. They were absolutely appaling today, barely strung a pass together and I was tearing my hair out. A few of the fans behind my dad and I were extremely critical of Kyle Bennett and David Cotterill. The fickle/clueless nature of most football fans was shown when Sky gave Cotterill man of the match. LOL.

Hopefully a few more results go our way and we can push on and finish the job. I do fear for us if we get promoted, the squad needs a lot of investment, and the bizarre captain=assistant (Rob Jones) manager cant really continue in my opinion. His form has been affected and he can never get demoted/dropped really. But that isn't for Fred just yet. Had a Frankie and Benny's breakfast with a pint today, so back to the beer and hoping results go our way.

P.S, the state of Doncaster's pitch may have something to do with their lack of home form. I have no clue why we let the Rugby League team play on the pitch, especially now the club own the stadium. Our savvy directors let the council knock it up and lose money year on year for a while before taking it at a cut price. You wouldn't guess the board have absolute chunks from previous businesses would you :p

[horseplayer]

i am not saying i agree with it bobby

of course prices should always be the driver

[Bazzaboy]

Diamond loses 6-5.

[BigAdz]

I see Wolves are turning it on, just when we were looking good.......grrrr

[tikay]

Donny & Birmingham overpriced today

Just realised, we backed Donny (winner) but I clean forgot to punt Birmingham. Who are 3-0 down before half time......

[Marky147]

Donny & Birmingham overpriced today

Just realised, we backed Donny (winner) but I clean forgot to punt Birmingham. Who are 3-0 down before half time......

Ride the heater, ride the heater

[tikay]

Diamond loses 6-5.

Yikes, we got whitewashed on the Darts today, a mercifully rarity for us.

In Rugby League, Hull KR are a cricket score behind before half time.

Neil's horses got unlucky.

April off to a proper flyer, hello variance, come on in.

[bobby1]

The value of the Tofino Bay bet was were taking the 33/1 non runner no bet when it was about that price with comm off in the pure antepost market on BF. On BF it is a loser but fixed odds you were getting a free shot at the correct BF price with your cash back if it didn't run.

On the Donny pricing, page 123 of todays RP has the list of home draw and away % in all the English and Scottish leagues this season. League one home teams have won 38% of home games this season, it is currently running at the worst % home advantage this season( probably to do with the fact there are a lot of teams tightly packed so not a lot of easier home games maybe)

So two teams of equal ability are running at a starting point home price of 13/8, so the game today says that Swindon are rated a slightly better team than Doncaster which Brent might or might not agree with anyway but he deffo disagrees with the supposed difference quoted by the prices.

In the Coventry game did Cov go off about 2.7/2.8 odd  ( I didn't see the off price), that price says that Donny are a better team than Coventry. So your opinion on the games are spot on Adz, they are a better team than Coventry and possibly a worse team than Swindon but the odds for both games say that anyway when using 13/8 the home as the starting point.

Not often I disagree with something you post Phil but not sure I agree with this.  There is no logical reason for home advantage to be less in League One than it is in the other leagues and the difference is probably within the realms of standard errors.   It is like every year a specific league starts out with really high goals and always ends up reverting to the mean.  Unless I could come up with a good hypothesis as to why home teams were only winning at a 38% clip I would be inclined to disregard the smaller sample in favour of the larger population size of all English leagues and this league historically and just go with the average of 45% or 5/4.  If we wanted to make an adjustment I think it is a serious mistake to go with 38% and maybe 43% or something in that region would be much better.    Similarly I rarely make an adjustment for home/away form because the sample size is generally so insignificant.  I will make an adjustment in specific circumstances if I can find a reason for a team to overpeform at home or away like geography ie would give Carlisle a bit more at home against, say Portsmouth, on the basis that it is a long trip and Pompey have no money so will probably have to do it by road etc.  Similarly I could see an argument that Chelsea have less home advantage due to the distractions with Rafa but I would really need to be convinced to make an adjustment or a significant sample size.

hi mate,

I have to shoot off but I agree with what you say, it is a small sample size and I did mean to state that ( I actually deleted the sentence that I made that point in). Reverting to the mean is deffo more likely to happen long term I just threw in a reason that it might be running slightly differently this season.

thanks

[tikay]

Thread remains too nitty imo.

Very keen on Poshies tomorrow, so...

Also have a £10 double on Posh-Posh H-T/F-T (6/1) and Dwighty Gayle first goal (7/1). Double pays 55/1

I don't know about too nitty but Mrs Merton style I do wonder , if it was done tastefully, is there is a cricket match or series anywhere in the world that we might consider not having a bet on?

There surely cannot be big enough mistakes in the prices to have a bet on a lot of games imo

You are, up to a point, correct Phil, but wearing my blonde hat, I want a thread which engages as many folks, and fun, as possible, and that means there will ways be a discount to optimal return, but if we can keep it at or near 5% ROI, then I think that is a cheap price to pay.

Anyway, we almost never bet on stuff from South America or Antartica.

[aaron1867]

Results around now are utterly ridic.

We are getting torn a new one by Bristol but are 1-0 up.

Going to have to see if I can get on Blackburn!!

[aaron1867]

Match stats from Cardiff v Blackburn

SON 11-0

[Tal]

Diamond loses 6-5.

Yikes, we got whitewashed on the Darts today, a mercifully rarity for us.

In Rugby League, Hull KR are a cricket score behind before half time.

Neil's horses got unlucky.

April off to a proper flyer, hello variance, come on in.

If Fred's girl trouble with Lady Variance ruins my chess bet, I shall be mightily cross!

[Tal]

Into the middlegame (the bit where the game starts to take shape after the opening dozen or so moves) and Ivanchuk has a small advantage over Kramnik, while Carlsen and Svidler are pretty much level.

Long way to go.