Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Carlsen is definitely going to lose.

We now need Ivanchuk to beat Kramnik.

Anyone else feeling slightly sick?

[tikay]

Hi Tikay,

I am a sport fan in general but particularly the stuff on the other side of the pond (MLB, NHL, PGA golf in particular). I am also a gambler who is attempting to be a lot more selective in his punts by sticking to what he knows. However, in an effort to learn more and in the interests of fun at smaller stakes, I have been following this thread since Cheltenham and placing a few selected bets (hence my question about the NR in the FGS bets).

Regarding the bets in question I have a US based friend who primarily bets tennis (particular the WTA stuff) and who has posted some impressive yearly figures. He told me at the start of the year that 365 is often way off on their totals on tennis and MLB, and slow to adjust them, so to keep an eye on them when the season rolled around. Sure enough he appears to be spot on. Every other book is near enough completely in line with Pinny.

Good stuff, & you clearly do your homework.

"redarmi" has suggested the prices are so bad (= good, as in "wrong") that maybe it will result in a palp, & subsequent Account Closure. Hardly worth losing an Account for £30 or so, so I need to go have a little dither now in a dark corner.

But whatever we decide about this one, I hope you hang around, & contribute some stuff, we need new blood.

[rinswun]

Hi Red. Is palped something to do with arbing? Could they refuse a payout on that basis? I've basically had a max (for me) on the first two I mentioned and a strong bet on the third plus parlayed them for a smaller amount.

[tikay]

Carlsen is definitely going to lose.

We now need Ivanchuk to beat Kramnik.

Anyone else feeling slightly sick?

Ha.

Don't be fretting (well, not for Fred), these things happen, & I have no regrets about the bet, none at all.

It really is becoming one of those days, we could kiss goodbye to over £200 at this rate. Oooooh.

[TightEnd]

Hi Red. Is palped something to do with arbing? Could they refuse a payout on that basis? I've basically had a max (for me) on the first two I mentioned and a strong bet on the third plus parlayed them for a smaller amount.

I think the quotes have changed since your first post?...u5.5 has become under u4.5 on the Reds game for example

good luck though, watching closely and have a particular game I thought was mis-priced that I am watching (KC at CWS)

[Tal]

On the prospect of Ivanchuk saving Carlsen's bacon:


Mig Greengard @chessninja   14m
Carlsen is toast but still wins event if Kramnik loses. And Ivanchuk will never have to pay for a drink in Norway for the rest of his life

Garry Kasparov @Kasparov63   13m
Not just free drinks in Norway for Ivanchuk, @chessninja. They will give him a pension for life, maybe a car, mansion...

[rinswun]

Hi Tikay,

I am a sport fan in general but particularly the stuff on the other side of the pond (MLB, NHL, PGA golf in particular). I am also a gambler who is attempting to be a lot more selective in his punts by sticking to what he knows. However, in an effort to learn more and in the interests of fun at smaller stakes, I have been following this thread since Cheltenham and placing a few selected bets (hence my question about the NR in the FGS bets).

Regarding the bets in question I have a US based friend who primarily bets tennis (particular the WTA stuff) and who has posted some impressive yearly figures. He told me at the start of the year that 365 is often way off on their totals on tennis and MLB, and slow to adjust them, so to keep an eye on them when the season rolled around. Sure enough he appears to be spot on. Every other book is near enough completely in line with Pinny.

Good stuff, & you clearly do your homework.

"redarmi" has suggested the prices are so bad (= good, as in "wrong") that maybe it will result in a palp, & subsequent Account Closure. Hardly worth losing an Account for £30 or so, so I need to go have a little dither now in a dark corner.

But whatever we decide about this one, I hope you hang around, & contribute some stuff, we need new blood.

Ah, I wouldn't want you to get your account shut tikay. I'm not restricted and probably lost enough there during Chelt (thanks to Neil I won everywhere else!) to get it through.

I'll definitely stick around, thanks for having me.

[Tal]

Carlsen is definitely going to lose.

We now need Ivanchuk to beat Kramnik.

Anyone else feeling slightly sick?

Ha.

Don't be fretting (well, not for Fred), these things happen, & I have no regrets about the bet, none at all.

It really is becoming one of those days, we could kiss goodbye to over £200 at this rate. Oooooh.

Someone has suggested on a simulation that the chance of both Carlsen and Kramnik losing today was <1%

Maths or no maths, whatever happens in the next hour, this will be a day to go down in chess history.

[tikay]

Hi Red. Is palped something to do with arbing? Could they refuse a payout on that basis? I've basically had a max (for me) on the first two I mentioned and a strong bet on the third plus parlayed them for a smaller amount.

I think the quotes have changed since your first post?...u5.5 has become under u4.5 on the Reds game for example

good luck though, watching closely and have a particular game I thought was mis-priced that I am watching (KC at CWS)

Well I missed the bus due to ditherage then, but a great learning exercise nonetheless.

[tikay]

Carlsen is definitely going to lose.

We now need Ivanchuk to beat Kramnik.

Anyone else feeling slightly sick?

Ha.

Don't be fretting (well, not for Fred), these things happen, & I have no regrets about the bet, none at all.

It really is becoming one of those days, we could kiss goodbye to over £200 at this rate. Oooooh.

Someone has suggested on a simulation that the chance of both Carlsen and Kramnik losing today was <1%

Maths or no maths, whatever happens in the next hour, this will be a day to go down in chess history.

Might be a day to go down in Fred history, too........

Hard to believe they could both lose today, though, what a thing!

[tikay]

Hi Tikay,

I am a sport fan in general but particularly the stuff on the other side of the pond (MLB, NHL, PGA golf in particular). I am also a gambler who is attempting to be a lot more selective in his punts by sticking to what he knows. However, in an effort to learn more and in the interests of fun at smaller stakes, I have been following this thread since Cheltenham and placing a few selected bets (hence my question about the NR in the FGS bets).

Regarding the bets in question I have a US based friend who primarily bets tennis (particular the WTA stuff) and who has posted some impressive yearly figures. He told me at the start of the year that 365 is often way off on their totals on tennis and MLB, and slow to adjust them, so to keep an eye on them when the season rolled around. Sure enough he appears to be spot on. Every other book is near enough completely in line with Pinny.

Good stuff, & you clearly do your homework.

"redarmi" has suggested the prices are so bad (= good, as in "wrong") that maybe it will result in a palp, & subsequent Account Closure. Hardly worth losing an Account for £30 or so, so I need to go have a little dither now in a dark corner.

But whatever we decide about this one, I hope you hang around, & contribute some stuff, we need new blood.

Ah, I wouldn't want you to get your account shut tikay. I'm not restricted and probably lost enough there during Chelt (thanks to Neil I won everywhere else!) to get it through.

I'll definitely stick around, thanks for having me.

Top stuff, be good to have an extra man on board.

We will deffo get you a bet on, so keep the suggestions coming, please.

[rinswun]

No worries. I'll keep my eyes open and chime in as and when. As TightEnd says, they amended the lines across the board now so value had I guess.

[Snowball]

A bit of controversy from the Darts, seemingly the Board was at the wrong height for last nights session which does make some sense as only 2 out of 16 players managed over a 90 average. MvG  was 87.5 and Painter 77 which he reckons is his worst average at a main tour event since he's been a pro.
So much for German efficiency

[Tal]

Repeat after me:


Boom.

[tikay]

Repeat after me:


Boom.

BOOM!