Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Fred has a small interest in the next, the 3.05, our only Aintree bet tday, I believe.....


£4.29 EW, Bet365, Flemenstar, 3.05 Aintree

£9.12 EW, Paddy Power, Flemenstar, 3.05 Aintree.

[hummuspie]

They are still at evens with WH

[tikay]

For name pickers, "Hectors Choice" runs in the next. 5 or 6 peeps have selected him in the Tipster Comp.

[bobby1]

The good news for our National fav bet is there is £137K wanting to back Seabass at 11.5 on BF which should force the fixed odds price down.

[edgascoigne]

The good news for our National fav bet is there is £137K wanting to back Seabass at 11.5 on BF which should force the fixed odds price down.

So that's a prrreeettyy big chunk. Any ideas on what's happening there beyond the obvious?

[bobby1]

The good news for our National fav bet is there is £137K wanting to back Seabass at 11.5 on BF which should force the fixed odds price down.

So that's a prrreeettyy big chunk. Any ideas on what's happening there beyond the obvious?

well I considered having a chunk(relative chunk that is) myself and then playing it back at shorter, the problem is I am on holiday and travelling 2morrow morning so didn't really want to be taking a big possie in case there were any probs.

My guess is that someone thinks the same as we do and that the Katie Walsh hype 2morrow will result in the horse being well backed/over bet, looks like a big trade spot to me. Tho will be interesting to see how the market holds up, in some of the big hcaps at Chelters the market didn't stand up at the top end and some of the favs in those hcaps returned ridic SP because the BF market didn't have enough money in it to match the flood of money. The Pipe horse in the Martin Pipe hcap was about a 6.6-6.8 chance in the afternoon and sp'd 9/4 fixed odds and about 3.8 on BF, blind punting at any price and not enough lay money to hold it up.

In the race after that Alderwood went off about 4.3 after being 6.odd before the previous race so will be interesting to see how the lay market on BF stands up 2morrow. The year Don't push it won and sp'd 10/1 fixed odds it was still about a 19/20 chance on BF just before the race but the markets on there have changed a lot since then.

[Jamier-Host]

The good news for our National fav bet is there is £137K wanting to back Seabass at 11.5 on BF which should force the fixed odds price down.

3 co-favourites and it all goes a bit pear shaped...

What do you reckon the SPs will be?  (just for fun so you look like a savant tomorrow!)

[bobby1]

The good news for our National fav bet is there is £137K wanting to back Seabass at 11.5 on BF which should force the fixed odds price down.

3 co-favourites and it all goes a bit pear shaped...

What do you reckon the SPs will be?  (just for fun so you look like a savant tomorrow!)

well three jt favs will be a three way dead heat.

I reckon the fav goes off 7/1-13/2 fixed odds.

[The Camel]

I would strongly advise against getting a huge trading position on the National.

Betfair is about 1/5 to go down tomorrow and you could end up having your entire roll on something when you only wanted to trade!

[bobby1]

I would strongly advise against getting a huge trading position on the National.

Betfair is about 1/5 to go down tomorrow and you could end up having your entire roll on something when you only wanted to trade!

I have to admit that was also a reason I didn't want to risk having lots of money invested with a view to getting out nearer the off.

[edgascoigne]

I would strongly advise against getting a huge trading position on the National.

Betfair is about 1/5 to go down tomorrow and you could end up having your entire roll on something when you only wanted to trade!

I have to admit that was also a reason I didn't want to risk having lots of money invested with a view to getting out nearer the off.

Wise men indeed the pair of you

[bobby1]

137k man  is chasing the money at 11 now.

[gherkin]

Here is my County Championship preview for Division 1

Warwickshire:  Quite rightly favourites, if they perform close to the same level of last couple of years they will be in the top 3
(+ve) Best Championship seam attack by a long way in Woakes, Rankin, Barker, Wright & Clarke.  Also have a very useful spinner in Patel.
 Best late order/tail in the league, Woakes and Clarke are genuine all rounders and Barker, Patel and Wright are very handy with the bat.
 They have come 1st and 2nd the last 2 seasons (would have been 2 successive wins without a very controversial points deduction) and that is with numbers 3,4 and 5 averaging less than 35 runs both seasons, which I'd expect an improvement on this time around
(-ve) Reserve keeper Johnson moved to Derby, so if Ambrose gets injured it will be a problem.
 When Bell & Trott are playing for England (probably 12 of the 16 games) the middle order (Westwood, Evans, Troughton, Maddy) looks weaker than the likes of Somerset, Surrey or Notts

Nottinghamshire:  Always look good on paper but underperformed the last 2 years (5th and 6th). Fancy them for a 1 day trophy rather than CC 
(-ve) The bowling is the obvious weakness and bringing in a 1 day specialist (Shahzad) won't help them regularly take 20 wickets
(+ve) If the bowling does click then the batting will takle care of itself with the likes of Hales, Lumb, Taylor, Read, Cowan/Hussey bound to post some impressive totals.

Somerset:  Last 3 years: 2nd/4th/2nd - very consistent.  Turning draws into wins will be key
(+ve) Given the number of injuries they had last year, 2nd was very impressive
  Runs will come no problem, despite losing Compton to England they have Trescothick back from injury to go with Peterson, Suppiah, Hildreth, Kieswetter & Trego. Along with Notts, strongest top 6
(-ve) Similar to Notts, how often will they get 20 wickets per game?  Surprised they didn't bring in 1 top bowler over the winter which would have made them favourites. They went after Harris but didn't try anyone after then when he chose Middlesex

Surrey:  Most unpredictable team in the division.  Wouldn't be surprised if they won the league or finished 7th
(+ve) In Graeme Smith they obviously have an excellent player and leader, just what Surrey needed.
They axed much of the deadwood and replaced them with the likes of Keedy, Solanki & Smith/Ponting - very experienced solid performers but very much a short term solution
Probably the 2nd best bowling attack after Warwickshire - Dernbach, Meaker, Tremlett, Lewis & Keedy/Batty.
(-ve) Niggling injuries to key players (Smith & Tremlett) at the start of the season - can't find any info if they will be fit for the start of the season but they haven't had any match practice.
Very much a young or old squad - no players in their prime

Derbyshire: No chance of winning the league although staying up is possible
(+ve) A few things going for them - Momentum, confidence, young team, nothing to lose and Chanderpaul is as good as any batsmen in the division
(-ve) It's one thing winning Div 2, but to win Div 1 the very next year is a completely different challenge. I don't think any team has done it yet, and so for a small team like Derbyshire to do it would be beyond impressive

Durham:  A team in freefall, gone from back to back winners to title challengers to a mess in 5 years.  Great outside bet on finishing bottom at 7/1
(+ve) Stokes, Collingwood, Benkenstein, Mustard is as good a 4,5,6,7 as any team and Onions was excellent with the ball last year
(-ve) Blown all their money on the likes of Harmison, Di Venuto, Benkenstein, Blackwell & Plunkett in the last 2 years so they can't afford an overseas player this season
Their best (and only top class) bowler will get an England call up if he does anywhere near as well as he did last year
Completely over rated team on the basis of their streangth 3-5 years ago.

Middlesex: Solid all round team with an outside shot at the title, 2 very good coaches copying the succesful set up at Warwickshire
(+ve) In Harris they signed the most saught after player this winter.  Bowling should look after itself, similar standard to Surrey just lacking a top spinner which could prove costly late on in the season
Players like Harris and Morgan should be fighting for England spots, scoring plenty of runs and taking plenty of wickets
(-ve) Probably the weakest keeper in the league (in terms of stats/experience, I don't think I've ever seen him play)
Batting was poor last year (Rogers aside) and they opted for the "it'll be alright this time around" strategy rather than improving it!

Sussex: I just look at their squad and think one day cricket. That said they've been a consistent mid-table team since they were promoted
(+ve) If they get a good start, they certainly have the talent and experience to be a contender
(-ve) One day cricket will surely be a priority for them and a sustained challenge in this competition seems unlikely, especially if Monty plays a few tests for England
Ed Joyce has never convinced me he is captain material.  If they get off to a bad start like last season I can see the wheels coming off instead of another recovery

Yorkshire:  Young team, surely too much to expect them to win it but can definitely see them staying up
(+ve)  The 1st XI looks reasonable, plenty of very capable younger players to compliment the experienced Sidebottom, Plunkett and Gale
(-ve) Root, Bairstow & Bresnan are all likely to feauture for England at various points in the summer, which will likely expose their lack of depth

Predicted Position / Team / (% chance of winning the title) / (% chance of relegation)

1. Warwickshire / 20% / 10%
2. Somerset / 17% / 10%
3. Surrey / 15% / 10%
4. Nottinghamshire / 14% / 10%
5. Middlesex / 12% / 15%
6. Yorkshire / 9% / 25%
7. Sussex / 6% / 25%
8. Derbyshire / 2% / 60%
9. Durham / 5% / 35%


As you can see it's a lot more open league than something like the Premier League.  With 2 out of 9 going down, not even the best teams are safe.

In terms of bets, personally I went for Warwickshire when they were 5/1.  You can still get them at 9/2, not sure if that's enough value for a 5 month bet. 
**As a disclaimer, I'm a big Warwickshire fan.  I was on them in 2011 when they finished 2nd (at 12/1) and again last year when they won it (at 10/1).  In my 10ish years of betting on this competition these are the only 3 seasons I've backed them, so it's not a case of just betting on my team**

Whilst I wouldn't have chosen it myself, you did well getting on Middlesex at 17/2 as they are now 15/2.  Somerset look the right price at 6/1 and Notts look too short at 11/2.  I'm considering Surrey at 7/1, going to have a think about that one

Since you have the Middlesex bet on I'd probably advise to leave it for now and we'll see if either the Surrey, Somerset or Warwicks price increase in the next few days. 

The "finish bottom" market is more interesting.  Derbyshire are favourites but have, at most, a 40% chance of coming last.  There is definitely value backing Durham (7/1).  I really want a relegation market, hopefully one will appear before the season starts - I'd love to take Sussex at 4/1 or better or Durham around 7/2. 

Top Scoring Captains: Read, Collingwood, Gale & Troughton are all unlikely to pass 1000 runs. 
Of the 6/1 shots - Masden only got 885 runs in Div 2 last year, Smith is only playing 10 games for Surrey which is obviously a big handicap and Joyce is capable but nowhere near as prolific as Trescothick, Rogers or Smith
To me it has to be Trescothick or Rogers...  I expected them both to be around 2/1.  Rogers last 3 season totals are 1108, 1286 and 1285.  Trescothick last 3 full seasons (ignoring 2012 where he was mostly injured) were 1673, 1397 and 1817.  Both have had 5 seasons in a row of 1100 runs plus

Top Batsman: Trescothick last 4 full seasons since quitting England:  6th (2008), 1st (2009), 4th (2010), 1st (2011),
No need to look elsewhere, I'd suggest an E/W bet (1/4 top 5) at 10/1
As a back up (and still decent value) then maybe consider Rogers Top Scoring Captain at 10/3

Had a look briefly at the "top team batsman" market but nothing immediately took my fancy

I'll post Division 2 when I get a chance, hopefully find some better value there

[rinswun]

Great write up! As a Sussex season ticket holder I agree whole heartedly with your assessment of the team. The recent ground upgrades at Hove smack of a team aiming to maximise one day revenue and the team looks to have been put together accordingly. I haven't had a look at the market for the 40over competition but if we are not in the top 3 in the betting I would be shocked. If we are 10/1 or bigger I think we'd be value.

[TightEnd]

Big fan of Northants at a huge price in Div 2 e/w behind Lancs/Hampshire

20-1 I think

No time to write it up, but its a big price in a division where everyone is much of a muchness behind the favourites