Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

I don't have Chompy's dedication to the Euro songfest, I just have one aim in my research and that is to assess the British entry. I have thus far listened to Bonnie Tyler too many times and come to the conclusion that it is not a bad song, but it is a bad Euro song. It is bland, bland, bland. Quite what she is going to do on stage to win votes is also a mystery as in the video she looks like something out of footballers wives that has aged 50 years, gone to fat and lost 16 inches in height.

The whole of Europe loves this competition as they get to show us what they really think of us. We could have a Eurovision with only 2 entries, us and the Germans. Our song could be written by Lennon/ McCartney, and sung by Elvis. For the Germans they could have Adolf Hitler singing a remake of Take That's " Rule the World" and I would make it 5/6 each of 2.

I would suggest £20 with Paddy Power that we finish 21st or lower @ 7/4.

Looks good to me but gone already . Think 6/4 is still ok though.  In the last 10, they have finished lower than this 6 times.  The years before this weren't so good, but £20 seems fine still.

Edit.  Didn't see tikay's post.  Confirmation Tikay is no longer an ice cream.  They shift the price and limit him to £4.

May I just confirm that there are at least 22 entries?

Ooh, good spot.

I think 40 odd enter, but are reduced in prelim rounds.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_in_the_Eurovision_Song_Contest

[tikay]

Congratulations are in order.

Only 15 months into its existence, Fred has just become the 2nd most Viewed thread on blonde.

Three months back it became the "Most Replied" thread on blonde.

[hector62]

There are 26 songs in the final of Eurovision.

[tentwowilldo]

I don't no if Fred is already on but Paddy Power have tweeted they are paying 6 places 1/4 odds Tiger currently 4/1

[tikay]

I don't no if Fred is already on but Paddy Power have tweeted they are paying 6 places 1/4 odds Tiger currently 4/1

Thanks.

No, I was not aware, but I'm sure there will be bundles of offers this week.

All very interesting & awkward the Masters Market.

Tiger's recent stunning return to form has seen him reduced to a ridiculously (arguably) low price which means, in theory, there is tons more value in the rest of the field.  

Until this weekend, we could, perhaps, safely discount Rory, but then he did his Lazarus trick yesterday.

So there will be tons of value to be had, if we can but find it.

[the sicilian]

Agree here Hector, Bonnie has zero chance and Europe still hate us. If we wanted to win the ESC we should get McFly on stage, not Humplebert or Bonnie. Every chance we'll finish last.

Re: Blackburn, they look to have the easiest run-in to me. Derby, Birmingham, Millwall have nothing to play for and Huddersfield are just terrible.

PP take £4 at 7/4? They really are a joke. Someone should go on their facebook page and type "Here Paddy, why don't you stop making shite adverts and just lay a decent bet instead?"

See if they use that in their next ad.

Had a brief look at the Blackburn run in earlier too and it didn't look bad, lots of draws and 1 goal defeats in their bad run too.  Will definitely give it a good look later but got a couple if things to do now.

Think the fact they are in free fall, the owners are bonkers and  have no idea what they are doing and sack managers every 7 weeks because they haven't won the FA Cup...on week or so ago at sixes.... Fans must be fearing the worst cant buy a result at the moment

[Waz1892]

Agree here Hector, Bonnie has zero chance and Europe still hate us. If we wanted to win the ESC we should get McFly on stage, not Humplebert or Bonnie. Every chance we'll finish last.

Re: Blackburn, they look to have the easiest run-in to me. Derby, Birmingham, Millwall have nothing to play for and Huddersfield are just terrible.

PP take £4 at 7/4? They really are a joke. Someone should go on their facebook page and type "Here Paddy, why don't you stop making shite adverts and just lay a decent bet instead?"

See if they use that in their next ad.

Had a brief look at the Blackburn run in earlier too and it didn't look bad, lots of draws and 1 goal defeats in their bad run too.  Will definitely give it a good look later but got a couple if things to do now.

Blackburns opponents over the last few games have been against mid-table teams, Burnley, Blackpool, Leeds, the odd lower team the odd higher team.  Pretty much the same spread they have in the next 5 games.

Fact is they haven't won since early Feb, and that was against Ipswich, and before that B.City.   Ignoring the cup run, they've won 3 since the 1st Jan. 

What do we think has changed, or will change in the last 6 games.  What kind of state are they moral wise, and how much are they fighting for the "club, fans, owners," etc, when off-field antics have crippled the club, with who knows what future the players have.

Stil convinced myself for £40 @ 5/2

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

It was at last years Masters that I put up my first tip, which you wrote you would back but never did and it won when Vijay Singh beat Tiger in the last round, not that it still grates. As we only got £4 on Eurovision I am going to suggest a bet for the Masters.

In the market for top Irish player there are 5 runners. I will discount Darren Clarke and Alan Dunbar. Rory is priced at 1/3 with Harrington 5-1 and McDowell 9-2. In last years Masters Rory came into the tournament with a season record of 2nd, 1st, 3rd yet only finished 40th in the Masters. Now he has changed clubs and does not seem to be anything like the player he was. It will take far more than he showed last week to convince me that he is back to his best.

Rory's record at the last 4 Masters reads 40th,15th,MC and 20th and only in one of those years would he have won top Irish player.

I would suggest we oppose Rory by backing the other 2 to be top Irish player at odds of just under 2-1.

McDowell £10 @ 9-2 Will Hill
Harrington £10 @ 5-1 Will Hill

[OverTheBorder]

Shoot me down, but I think this is too good to resist?

Championship Relegation battle.  I live in Peterborough, so an "vested interest", although I haven't been since '91 when they knocked out Liverpool (I was and still am a red's supporter)

So I wondered what kind of run-in they had, they are getting results (unbeaten in the last 8 as I type) so maybe half-a-chance. Run in is nasty, playing (currently) 3rd, 4th and 6th in the next 5 games left.

So i then ventured onto the other teams around the relegation battle......so, my bet is a 5/2 shot (with Whills) on a club going down - he is why I think -

Taking into account, form, league run-in and opponents....

OK, taking into account current league positions going upto Sheff Wed in 18th place (3points separates 18th to 23rd), giving each club their opponents league position and divided by number of games you get an average of "points" for their run-in.  The lower the number the harder the run-in.

Posh - 8 "points" They have 5 games left, playing 3rd, 6th, 10th,18th and 4th (added, divided = eight)
Blackburn 11
Huddersfield 20
Barnsley 8.5
Wolves 10
Sheff Wed - 16

still with me...

Huddersfield have the lowest "points" so easier run-in by some distance, the highest place they play is 15th! (although acknowledged all cup-finals, 2 of which are at home)
Hardest run-ins Posh, Barnsley, Wolves blackburn

Wolves have won 3 from 4.
Posh unbeaten in 8
Blackburn with a "points score" of 11 havent won a game in over 10 matches
Barnsley lost 1 in last 6

Blackburn are 5/2 to get relegated...

They play Derby, Huddersfield, Watford, Millwall (10days after cup semi), Palace, Birmingham.

Thanks Waz.

Most interesting, & you sell a great story. I'm convinced.

My question would be.....

We asre already invested in the Championship Relegation market as follows.....

Birmingham City, £20 @ 5.4.

Wolves, £10 @ 15/2

Bolton, £5 @ 33/1

We can safely assume that the Birmingham & Bolton bets are both dead, or as we prefer to call them, "Walsall's"......

So we need to decide a stake. I'm inclined to do something in the area of £40 or £50.

Thoughts?

To be a true "Walsall" should we not be backing them to be promoted now lol

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

It was at last years Masters that I put up my first tip, which you wrote you would back but never did and it won when Vijay Singh beat Tiger in the last round, not that it still grates. As we only got £4 on Eurovision I am going to suggest a bet for the Masters.

In the market for top Irish player there are 5 runners. I will discount Darren Clarke and Alan Dunbar. Rory is priced at 1/3 with Harrington 5-1 and McDowell 9-2. In last years Masters Rory came into the tournament with a season record of 2nd, 1st, 3rd yet only finished 40th in the Masters. Now he has changed clubs and does not seem to be anything like the player he was. It will take far more than he showed last week to convince me that he is back to his best.

Rory's record at the last 4 Masters reads 40th,15th,MC and 20th and only in one of those years would he have won top Irish player.

I would suggest we oppose Rory by backing the other 2 to be top Irish player at odds of just under 2-1.

McDowell £10 @ 9-2 Will Hill
Harrington £10 @ 5-1 Will Hill

Incred!

not that it still grates......

[tikay]

As a self confessed nit I have been reticent to recommend a bet before now, even with someone else's money, however it is time to grow a pair and face the potential scorn of the masses.

In the Masters golf 2 balls today I would like to recommend backing Vijay Singh to beat Tiger Woods at a generally available 15/8.

He out scored him in the first 2 rounds and hopefully yesterday was his one bad round. Tiger is 12 shots off the lead with no realistic chance of winning. I can see Tiger taking too many risks in an attempt to make something spectacular happen and getting into some horrible spots. It could mean that all Vijay will have to do to win this is shoot level par, which he did in his first 2 rounds. If Tiger was vying for the lead then I wouldn't be recommending this but he isn't and that is one of the key reasons why I believe this is a good price.

As far as an amount to bet is concerned I would not enjoy watching the rest of the golf if you bet what i consider to be an amount that the bankroll doesn't justify so no more than £50.

BUMPED, from EXACTLY one year ago today.

[Tal]

Coincidentally, it was exactly one year ago that I joined blondepoker.

63 days of my life well spent.

[hector62]

That was for my biggest ever bet as well !

At this rate next year I will be tipping in amounts of less than £5.

[tikay]

That was for my biggest ever bet as well !

At this rate next year I will be tipping in amounts of less than £5.

Hard to believe you tipped FIFTY quid!

These days you are mostly in the £10 to £25 range, whilst some guys want £150 on everything.

Unbelievable, your biggest bet, it won, & we missed it. And unlike yesterday, I could not use the "I was asleep" excuse.

[tikay]

Coincidentally, it was exactly one year ago that I joined blondepoker.

63 days of my life well spent.

Really? Wow.

You are an absolute asset to us, right across the Site.

We first met in Vegas, in June, & it was love at first sight I thought you seemed OK.