Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Darren Clarke pulled out of Masters. Not sure how that affects the top irish bet. Only likely to slim down the price on the two we were tipped to back earlier itt.

Daft question of the week: these odds don't get reduced when someone withdraws do they, like you get in a horse race once they are under orders? Top Irishman is a small field race, I'm figuring?

[hector62]

Darren Clarke pulled out of Masters. Not sure how that affects the top irish bet. Only likely to slim down the price on the two we were tipped to back earlier itt.

Daft question of the week: these odds don't get reduced when someone withdraws do they, like you get in a horse race once they are under orders? Top Irishman is a small field race, I'm figuring?

If you backed them before the withdrawl then you will be OK. Clarke's withdrawl ( a 25-1 shot) only moved the market a small amount, I think Harrington and McDowell came in 1/2 a point each. There is no rule 4 after you have placed your bet.

[Tal]

Darren Clarke pulled out of Masters. Not sure how that affects the top irish bet. Only likely to slim down the price on the two we were tipped to back earlier itt.

Daft question of the week: these odds don't get reduced when someone withdraws do they, like you get in a horse race once they are under orders? Top Irishman is a small field race, I'm figuring?

If you backed them before the withdrawl then you will be OK. Clarke's withdrawl ( a 25-1 shot) only moved the market a small amount, I think Harrington and McDowell came in 1/2 a point each. There is no rule 4 after you have placed your bet.

Thanking yow

[aaron1867]

Doobs - no need for rest, IMO.

You know what I'm like, but feel strongly about this one & definitely not aftertiming here, was just asking why? Still confused, but think Free needs to move on.

[tikay]

Doobs - no need for rest, IMO.

You know what I'm like, but feel strongly about this one & definitely not aftertiming here, was just asking why? Still confused, but think Fred needs to move on.

Yes, it does.

[Dubai]

Anyone got any thoughts on Blackburn to go down?

[Dubai]

Wheres Gherkin gone?!! Still waiting for Division 2 other betting markets previews

Found an interesting one. Rob Quiney to be Essex' top scorer. He is as big as 10-1 but funnily as low as 20s for division top scorer, he is provisionally signed for first half of season until Ashes starts, but surely he wont get a call up unless he has set the world on fire and Essex will re-sign him until the end of the year unless he has been useless, in which case our bet would probably be dead anyway. If he was guaranteed to be there until end of season he would surely be a 3-1 shot biggest

[FUN4FRASER]

Found one in the IPL   Cricket.......Really fancy Mumbai Indians to beat Delhi Daredevils...starts in 50 mins

Best price  8 -11 @ Boyles or 1.77 betfair

Good Luck to those that join

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/indian-premier-league/mumbai-indians-v-delhi-daredevils/winner

[tikay]

Wheres Gherkin gone?!! Still waiting for Division 2 other betting markets previews

Found an interesting one. Rob Quiney to be Essex' top scorer. He is as big as 10-1 but funnily as low as 20s for division top scorer, he is provisionally signed for first half of season until Ashes starts, but surely he wont get a call up unless he has set the world on fire and Essex will re-sign him until the end of the year unless he has been useless, in which case our bet would probably be dead anyway. If he was guaranteed to be there until end of season he would surely be a 3-1 shot biggest

He did them yesterday Dave. Give me a mo, & I'll bump them.

[tikay]

CC DIVISION 2

Essex - Good young players coming through but they they are going to need a big April/May to still be in contention late on
(+ve) Bopara should be available for the whole season, giving them the best all-rounder in the league, to go with the best keeper (Foster)
3 very promising seam bowlers (Mills, Topley & Craddock) to go with a fairly strong looking top 7
(-ve) Letting 2 of their best players (Shah & Ten Doeschate) go off and play in the IPL will hurt them since they will have played 7 games by the time they return.  They also lost Adam Wheater to Hampshire
Coach seems unpopular and has failed so far, probably his last chance this season

Hampshire - Great one day team that should finish in the top 2 or 3 in the CC
(+ve) Batting looks very solid - Adams, Bailey/McKenzie, Carberry, Vince, Ervine.  Runs shouldn't be a problem
They signed Ajmal for the end of the season who will likely rip through at least a couple of batting line-ups in this division
(-ve) Seam attack looks to lack depth compared to Lancashire

Lancashire - Pretty much expected to win the league but (2011 aside) they are renowned for underachieving
(+ve) On paper they have the best squad with a very good balance
Signed Kabir Ali and Simon Katich who I rate pretty highly, both bound to do well in this division
(-ve) Possibility of Glenn Chapple dying mid run up if they put any more workload on him. 
Been favourites plenty of times before and the expectation has become a burden

Kent - Threw it away last year after being top for so long, kept almost exactly the same squad
(+ve) Some great experienced players in Key, Jones, Tredwell & Stevens and a lot of potential talent, some of which (Bell-Drummond/Northeast) are already performing.
Their first XI can match any team in this division so if they avoid injuries they have a real chance
(-ve) Can't afford an overseas player, so will need some of the unproven youngsters to perform in order to go up
A couple of injuries to key players and they have no chance

Glamorgan - Hard to tell if they have are beginning to rebuild or continuing their downward slump
(+ve) The likes of Goodwin, North, Allenby, Wallace, Wagg could get into any side in this division
(-ve) They have depended so much on 4 or 5 players in the past and I see no reason it will change this season. 
Their best bowler left for Middlesex, so I'm not sure how often they will get 20 wickets in a match

Leicestershire - Young team, mid table would be a very good achievement
(+ve) Didn't do as bad as expected last year and in Sarwan have a solid player / leader
(-ve) Their best player (White) went to Lancashire and has left a big hole in the bowling - I haven't heard of some of the players they have brought in over the winter as replacements
Inferioir in almost every department to the top 3 or 4 teams, almost impossible task to expect promotion

Northants - Went from almost going up in 2011 to really poor last year
(+ve) Trent Copeland is a very good overseas player.  Another Aussie they recruited, Stephen Crook, is meant to be good as well
Plenty of experience and ability in the squad to help (Hall, Middlebrook, Willey, etc)
(-ve) What are they going to do when Copeland leaves?  Unless they get a replacement I'm not sure how often they'll get 20 wickets

Gloucestershire - Very unlikely to get promoted let alone win the league
(+ve) Decent young seam attack with no expectations, could prove a surprise if they hit form & start regularly picking up 20 wickets as a unit
(-ve) Too many "potential" players where basically the stats make pretty grim reading

Worcestershire – Been a yo-yo team in recent years but I can’t see them going back up this time around
(+ve) Samaraweera is exactly the sort of overseas signing they needed, impressive solid batsmen
(-ve) They finished bottom of Div1 last year, despite Phil Hughes having a very good season.  Without him (or Solanki) this year I think their batting looks vulnerable, even in this league.
Bowling is over reliant on the ageing Alan Richardson


My Prediction & % chance of winning Div 2
1. Hampshire   (25%)
2. Lancashire  (25%)
3. Kent  (16%)
4. Essex  (13%)
5. Northants  (7%)
6. Glamorgan  (3%)
7. Worcestershire  (5%)
8. Leicestershire  (3%)
9. Gloucestershire  (3%)

Realistically Glamorgan, Gloucestershire and Leicestershire have very little chance of going up, let alone winning the league.  Worcester look really weak to me, can't believe most bookies have them around 7/1 to win the league - I'll happily lay 10/1.  Any of the 5 remaining teams could win the league.  I don't see any value in the Kent, Lancashire or Essex price for reasons I mentioned earlier - Kent's squad looks thin and the 5/1 offered is reflective of their best XI not the squad as a whole.  Essex have 7 Championship games before the end of May (when the IPL ends and they get 2 of their best players back).  Lancashire & Hampshire look pretty equal to me, so no point in backing the shorter price.  As for Northants, I agree that they are definitely underrated by the bookies.  They shouldn't be the same price as Gla, Glo, Leic.  The problem is as other contenders will strengthen in the 2nd half of the season (Essex, Hampshire), Northants will be considerably weaker when Copeland leaves.  If they are to go up they have to be top at the start of August in my opinion OR get a top quality bowler in for the last 2 months, which I'm not sure they can afford

So that leaves my choice, Hampshire at 4/1.  Saeed Ajmal is one of the best spinners in the world and so when he joins Danny Briggs at the start of August I suspect they will win lots of matches on wearing pitches.  Their top 6 is the best in the league (on paper anyway!) and they have 2 decent keepers.  Not only does their first XI look very strong but, just like Lancashire, they have depth if they do get injuries.  If the seamers (Wood, Tomlinson, Balcombe) can get 20 wickets on a regular basis they will be the team to beat.

I haven't had a look at the other markets yet, will do that tonight at some point

BUMPED for Lord Shallow.

I'll be getting on today (I've threatened that for several days) but I'm really up against it right now with time-issues, & this & that.

[Dubai]

I wanted the sub markets...Will wait till he reads this thread. Obv Craddock is a leggie not a seamer tho

[horseplayer]

CC DIVISION 2

Essex - Good young players coming through but they they are going to need a big April/May to still be in contention late on
(+ve) Bopara should be available for the whole season, giving them the best all-rounder in the league, to go with the best keeper (Foster)
3 very promising seam bowlers (Mills, Topley & Craddock) to go with a fairly strong looking top 7
(-ve) Letting 2 of their best players (Shah & Ten Doeschate) go off and play in the IPL will hurt them since they will have played 7 games by the time they return.  They also lost Adam Wheater to Hampshire
Coach seems unpopular and has failed so far, probably his last chance this season

Hampshire - Great one day team that should finish in the top 2 or 3 in the CC
(+ve) Batting looks very solid - Adams, Bailey/McKenzie, Carberry, Vince, Ervine.  Runs shouldn't be a problem
They signed Ajmal for the end of the season who will likely rip through at least a couple of batting line-ups in this division
(-ve) Seam attack looks to lack depth compared to Lancashire

Lancashire - Pretty much expected to win the league but (2011 aside) they are renowned for underachieving
(+ve) On paper they have the best squad with a very good balance
Signed Kabir Ali and Simon Katich who I rate pretty highly, both bound to do well in this division
(-ve) Possibility of Glenn Chapple dying mid run up if they put any more workload on him. 
Been favourites plenty of times before and the expectation has become a burden

Kent - Threw it away last year after being top for so long, kept almost exactly the same squad
(+ve) Some great experienced players in Key, Jones, Tredwell & Stevens and a lot of potential talent, some of which (Bell-Drummond/Northeast) are already performing.
Their first XI can match any team in this division so if they avoid injuries they have a real chance
(-ve) Can't afford an overseas player, so will need some of the unproven youngsters to perform in order to go up
A couple of injuries to key players and they have no chance

Glamorgan - Hard to tell if they have are beginning to rebuild or continuing their downward slump
(+ve) The likes of Goodwin, North, Allenby, Wallace, Wagg could get into any side in this division
(-ve) They have depended so much on 4 or 5 players in the past and I see no reason it will change this season. 
Their best bowler left for Middlesex, so I'm not sure how often they will get 20 wickets in a match

Leicestershire - Young team, mid table would be a very good achievement
(+ve) Didn't do as bad as expected last year and in Sarwan have a solid player / leader
(-ve) Their best player (White) went to Lancashire and has left a big hole in the bowling - I haven't heard of some of the players they have brought in over the winter as replacements
Inferioir in almost every department to the top 3 or 4 teams, almost impossible task to expect promotion

Northants - Went from almost going up in 2011 to really poor last year
(+ve) Trent Copeland is a very good overseas player.  Another Aussie they recruited, Stephen Crook, is meant to be good as well
Plenty of experience and ability in the squad to help (Hall, Middlebrook, Willey, etc)
(-ve) What are they going to do when Copeland leaves?  Unless they get a replacement I'm not sure how often they'll get 20 wickets

Gloucestershire - Very unlikely to get promoted let alone win the league
(+ve) Decent young seam attack with no expectations, could prove a surprise if they hit form & start regularly picking up 20 wickets as a unit
(-ve) Too many "potential" players where basically the stats make pretty grim reading

Worcestershire – Been a yo-yo team in recent years but I can’t see them going back up this time around
(+ve) Samaraweera is exactly the sort of overseas signing they needed, impressive solid batsmen
(-ve) They finished bottom of Div1 last year, despite Phil Hughes having a very good season.  Without him (or Solanki) this year I think their batting looks vulnerable, even in this league.
Bowling is over reliant on the ageing Alan Richardson


My Prediction & % chance of winning Div 2
1. Hampshire   (25%)
2. Lancashire  (25%)
3. Kent  (16%)
4. Essex  (13%)
5. Northants  (7%)
6. Glamorgan  (3%)
7. Worcestershire  (5%)
8. Leicestershire  (3%)
9. Gloucestershire  (3%)

Realistically Glamorgan, Gloucestershire and Leicestershire have very little chance of going up, let alone winning the league.  Worcester look really weak to me, can't believe most bookies have them around 7/1 to win the league - I'll happily lay 10/1.  Any of the 5 remaining teams could win the league.  I don't see any value in the Kent, Lancashire or Essex price for reasons I mentioned earlier - Kent's squad looks thin and the 5/1 offered is reflective of their best XI not the squad as a whole.  Essex have 7 Championship games before the end of May (when the IPL ends and they get 2 of their best players back).  Lancashire & Hampshire look pretty equal to me, so no point in backing the shorter price.  As for Northants, I agree that they are definitely underrated by the bookies.  They shouldn't be the same price as Gla, Glo, Leic.  The problem is as other contenders will strengthen in the 2nd half of the season (Essex, Hampshire), Northants will be considerably weaker when Copeland leaves.  If they are to go up they have to be top at the start of August in my opinion OR get a top quality bowler in for the last 2 months, which I'm not sure they can afford

So that leaves my choice, Hampshire at 4/1.  Saeed Ajmal is one of the best spinners in the world and so when he joins Danny Briggs at the start of August I suspect they will win lots of matches on wearing pitches.  Their top 6 is the best in the league (on paper anyway!) and they have 2 decent keepers.  Not only does their first XI look very strong but, just like Lancashire, they have depth if they do get injuries.  If the seamers (Wood, Tomlinson, Balcombe) can get 20 wickets on a regular basis they will be the team to beat.

I haven't had a look at the other markets yet, will do that tonight at some point

lovely previews thanks for taking the time

[Nico29]

Personally find everything Doobs writes on betting pretty helpful, would be a real shame if he took a break from posting on here.

Not sure exactly what was said and if posts were deleted from last night, but I really don't blame him for bringing up old bets and stuff regarding Aaron.

Yes Aaron well done you picked out Blackburn at 12's, it's not like you would ever not mention a good tip you'd made, think you've bigged yourself up about your wolves rec 300 times since while mentioning the Bolton one about once, and now this Blackburn 12's one is on about 59 comments.

Funnily enough i'm on Blackburn to go down at prices ranging from 50's to 12's-the last one being purely due to you highlighting on fred the huge diff via oddschecker amongst the prices-so ty for that, yet still i'm very tempted to top up at 3's.

Going on and on about how we didn't get on at 12's so now we shouldn't get on at 3's when it's a totally different bet/situation just seems ridic though and you do make me lol when you say 'i'll have to get my head round this' as a way of illustrating your confusion-so childish.

The whole thing seems like something that's been said a million times before, and you never seem to get it.  Value is value, and please don't constantly crow over everything you ever get right, it's so tilting.

[gherkin]

Wheres Gherkin gone?!! Still waiting for Division 2 other betting markets previews

Found an interesting one. Rob Quiney to be Essex' top scorer. He is as big as 10-1 but funnily as low as 20s for division top scorer, he is provisionally signed for first half of season until Ashes starts, but surely he wont get a call up unless he has set the world on fire and Essex will re-sign him until the end of the year unless he has been useless, in which case our bet would probably be dead anyway. If he was guaranteed to be there until end of season he would surely be a 3-1 shot biggest

I like this, especially as Shah / Ten Doeschate (and whoever they come in to the side in place of) are only going play half a season which limits the competition to maybe 3 or 4 others.  It makes no sense to change overseas player unless they have to, so surely they'll extend the deal if he's not picked for Australia.  The only downside I can see is that if he does get a lot of runs I think he has a reasonable chance of making the squad.  Still, at 10/1, well worth a shout

What do you think of Simon Katich at 20/1 for top batsmen in the league?  Lancashire poached him from Hampshire over the winter and although last season he was poor (averaging mid 30s) his first class average is over 52 and most of that will have come across much higher standard of bowling than he is going to face in this league.  Looking down the list I'm fairly sure the only player with an average close to that is Samaraweera.  In an interview I was reading Katich said he wants to bounce back after last year, and with the Australian team coming over later in the year, this would be the perfect summer to prove to them why they axed him too early from the Test team (he has no chance of getting picked, Michael Clarke hates him).  Added to that, he is an opening batsmen so will most likely get 1 or 2 extra innings than many of the others on the list (who are middle order batsmen)

[tikay]

Personally find everything Doobs writes on betting pretty helpful, would be a real shame if he took a break from posting on here.

Not sure exactly what was said and if posts were deleted from last night, but I really don't blame him for bringing up old bets and stuff regarding Aaron.

Yes Aaron well done you picked out Blackburn at 12's, it's not like you would ever not mention a good tip you'd made, think you've bigged yourself up about your wolves rec 300 times since while mentioning the Bolton one about once, and now this Blackburn 12's one is on about 59 comments.

Funnily enough i'm on Blackburn to go down at prices ranging from 50's to 12's-the last one being purely due to you highlighting on fred the huge diff via oddschecker amongst the prices-so ty for that, yet still i'm very tempted to top up at 3's.

Going on and on about how we didn't get on at 12's so now we shouldn't get on at 3's when it's a totally different bet/situation just seems ridic though and you do make me lol when you say 'i'll have to get my head round this' as a way of illustrating your confusion-so childish.

The whole thing seems like something that's been said a million times before, and you never seem to get it.  Value is value, and please don't constantly crow over everything you ever get right, it's so tilting.

All noted Dom, but let us move on please. I have requested the same of others.

Fence & bridge repairs are in hand, privately, & will take a while, far far better that way, but I don't want the thread vibes to be messed up by this sort of stuff.

This sort of debate NEVER gets resolved by lobbing stuff back & forth in public.

PS - Both Doobs & Aaron have very good ROI's.