Tips for Tikay

[Bad Beat]

 They are also going 12/1 McIlroy and 16/1 Mickelson.

 I don't personally fancy the three of them that much at current prices, but I think it has been established that these prices just need to be taken.

[rfgqqabc]

They are also going 12/1 McIlroy and 16/1 Mickelson.

 I don't personally fancy the three of them that much at current prices, but I think it has been established that these prices just need to be taken.

Shops? Online? Max stakes? Tyty

[Tal]

They are top 5 and it would make a great ew bet.

Sounds like a plan, then.

Cheers.

[Bad Beat]

 I'm not sure. Usually it's all channels from 9am and it probably depends on what they think of you in terms of what you get.

 Might try my "special" shop.

[moonandback]

I think E/W is bad value as tiger does not place often enough! let me explain...
Tiger has played 298 pga tour events winning 77 of them finising 2nd 28 times and 3rd on 19 occasions according to pga tour.com i dont know how often he has finished 4th or 5th but he has 180 top tens which include the wins and 2nds etc this ratio would suggest he is almost more likely to win than have a non winning place so why would you take 6/4 on him finishing 1-5 when when he does finish top 5 most of the time he wins and you can get 6/1 for him to finish 1st?

lets say he wins 50% of the time that he is top 5 (not an unreasonable assumption given his history) and your choices are £100 E/W or £200 win @ 6/1
so when he places you return either 250 or zero.
when he wins you return 950 or 1400.

your EV when you place the win bet is £700 every time tiger places.
your EV when you bet E/W is £600 every time tiger places.

I REALLY think i am right but mr Channing may prove me wrong but on this very rare occasion i dont think he will.

[Bad Beat]

 At 6/1 I am getting 6/4 that he finishes in the 1st 5. On Betfair I can lay Evs that he finishes in the 1st five.

 That, my friend, is why Betfair is so bad for the shrewd punter. You did all that work and an idiot can quickly click on and see the answer without doing any.

 I like your argument and possibly the Evs should be a lay, but the 6/4 a place must be a bet, especially when all the each-way bets at 9/2 today, some of which were 1st six have not caused him to drift despite the arbers looking to lay him.

[Tal]

when he does finish top 5 most of the time he wins

Sort of the opposite of Westwood, then...

It's an interesting point, Mr Back, which I had given no consideration to, lazily assuming the offer price needed chomping both ways just because it was there.

Am I right in saying you still think the offer makes EW profitable, but in Tiger's case, it isn't as profitable as putting both bets just on the win?

[moonandback]

if 4/1 is his true odds of winning ie 1 time in 5 then his chance of placing would 2 in 5 which is 6/4  would'nt you just be better smashing into the win part and laying that off?

[rinswun]

I think E/W is bad value as tiger does not place often enough! let me explain...
Tiger has played 298 pga tour events winning 77 of them finising 2nd 28 times and 3rd on 19 occasions according to pga tour.com i dont know how often he has finished 4th or 5th but he has 180 top tens which include the wins and 2nds etc this ratio would suggest he is almost more likely to win than have a non winning place so why would you take 6/4 on him finishing 1-5 when when he does finish top 5 most of the time he wins and you can get 6/1 for him to finish 1st?

lets say he wins 50% of the time that he is top 5 (not an unreasonable assumption given his history) and your choices are £100 E/W or £200 win @ 6/1
so when he places you return either 250 or zero.
when he wins you return 950 or 1400.

your EV when you place the win bet is £700 every time tiger places.
your EV when you bet E/W is £600 every time tiger places.

I REALLY think i am right but mr Channing may prove me wrong but on this very rare occasion i dont think he will.

I'll pad out some stats - Tigers has played the Masters 18 times - 16 times as a professional. Discounting the 2 times he played it as an am, he has 12 top 10s, 4 of which were wins (only one of which was outside the top 6). Assuming a static price of 5/1, backing him which way makes most profit?

[tikay]

Just finished work.

Good to see we are back on track, and Junior Senior gave us a nice winner tonight, £40 @ Evens on Hyde.

Will deffo be doing that "Top Amateur" bet by Moony, though I'm blowed if I know whether we should do win or each way, possibly laying the place.

All good stuff though, thanks.

[Dubai]

It's actually an interesting argument. Basically Tiger is more likely to finish 1st than 2nd, more likely to finish 2nd than 3rd, more likely to finish 3rd than 4th etc, which means the more places we get on the each way the less important each one becomes. Obviously the chances of him finishing 6th is x%, where x is above 0 but smaller than the chance of him finishing 5th, I certainly wouldn't be giving up a point on the win price just so we get 6th place in the ew for example

Obviously given Hills are going 6/1 both the win and each way are good bets, it's not like you can really make too much of a mistake. I think I'd just load up on the win and let it run if I had a choice, think there's going to be more mileage to suggest the market may have underestimated this aspect than the place aspect.

[Dubai]

Should take the 3/1 as recommended on Neil's site on Castano top Spaniard, bf suggests 12/5-13/5ish

[moonandback]

At the masters he has won 4 times and placed a further 6 times (top5) and has placed 7 of the last 8 years so yeah 6/4 is almost certainly still value for this tournament but i think 6/1 is better value.

can't believe Neil called me a shrewd punter I'm not normally but if i publish my opinion on Fred then i do much infinitely more homework.

anyway Weaver for top Am.

to rinswun i will discount the 6th as hills are only top 5 so 4 wins 6 other places

if you backed him £200 win @ 5's you would return 4800 less 2000 = 2800 profit

if 100 ew 6*225(1350) + 4*825(3300) - 2000 = 2650 profit this assuming you get full place odds when he placed and there is no 3 way tie for 4th etc.

[Dubai]

Tiger is definitely an exception in the fact he was/hopefully is/probably always will be, such a good front runner and win machine, hence his skewed stats on win to place ratio compared to other golfers. Which is why I could definitely listen to anyone suggesting markets overestimating x and underestimating y when it comes to Tiger. I think he is a real anomoly and therefore a lot harder to price up to win events than any other golfer and maybe sports person or team, especially at the moment

[rinswun]

Cheers moon, I was being lazy there. Too late for me to be doing any form of maths haha. Interesting discussion for sure.