Tips for Tikay

[peejaytwo]

The cashier at hills shit herself when I gave her a slip with £100 ew tiger.
Said tenner max
Stan James 100 yards away took the £100 ew
Well done stan

[rinswun]

IPL Day 7 update:

Finally some positive IPL news for Fred our outright tip Mumbai dispatched Dehli, having made the year's highest total to date 209/5. It's bodes well for us that this score was put together despite both Ponting and Tendulkar falling before two overs had been completed. Two wins from three now and we are finally rolling in the right direction. The day's other game saw Bangalore pick up the win thanks to a 93* from Virat Kohli which sent him to 2nd in the most runs table. Dinesh Karthik currently leads the way with 183 from three games while Marlon Samuels has just with runs from two games. A bit behind the 8ball there.

Today's game features Azhar Mahmood's Kings XI against pre-tourn favourites Chennai. Last time out Mahmood wasn't required to bat but Chennai are stronger so we might need to get our anti-sweat on.

[tikay]

IPL Day 7 update:

Finally some positive IPL news for Fred our outright tip Mumbai dispatched Dehli, having made the year's highest total to date 209/5. It's bodes well for us that this score was put together despite both Ponting and Tendulkar falling before two overs had been completed. Two wins from three now and we are finally rolling in the right direction. The day's other game saw Bangalore pick up the win thanks to a 93* from Virat Kohli which sent him to 2nd in the most runs table. Dinesh Karthik currently leads the way with 183 from three games while Marlon Samuels has just with runs from two games. A bit behind the 8ball there.

Today's game features Azhar Mahmood's Kings XI against pre-tourn favourites Chennai. Last time out Mahmood wasn't required to bat but Chennai are stronger so we might need to get our anti-sweat on.

Good news at last! Go Mumbai.

Must say, the Samuels bet is not looking do good, but we have a basket of bets, some are bound to sink.

[TightEnd]

It's very early days for our World Snooker outsiders

However it is Qualifying currently

Maflin won his first match 10-6 and is playing Steve Davis now, 1-0 up

Jack Lisowski is playing James Wattana now, 1-0 up

Anthony McGill plays Rod Lawler

If any win these matches they have a match against a player 17-32 in the World rankings


Lisowski would get Feargal O'Brien

McGill: Martin Gould

Maflin: Peter Ebdon


Winners at that point then get a random draw against a top 16 seed at the Crucible

Realistically all three are not going to make the Crucible, but all would be dangerous players for a seed if they did....

[tikay]

Wheres Gherkin gone?!! Still waiting for Division 2 other betting markets previews

Found an interesting one. Rob Quiney to be Essex' top scorer. He is as big as 10-1 but funnily as low as 20s for division top scorer, he is provisionally signed for first half of season until Ashes starts, but surely he wont get a call up unless he has set the world on fire and Essex will re-sign him until the end of the year unless he has been useless, in which case our bet would probably be dead anyway. If he was guaranteed to be there until end of season he would surely be a 3-1 shot biggest

I like this, especially as Shah / Ten Doeschate (and whoever they come in to the side in place of) are only going play half a season which limits the competition to maybe 3 or 4 others.  It makes no sense to change overseas player unless they have to, so surely they'll extend the deal if he's not picked for Australia.  The only downside I can see is that if he does get a lot of runs I think he has a reasonable chance of making the squad.  Still, at 10/1, well worth a shout

What do you think of Simon Katich at 20/1 for top batsmen in the league?  Lancashire poached him from Hampshire over the winter and although last season he was poor (averaging mid 30s) his first class average is over 52 and most of that will have come across much higher standard of bowling than he is going to face in this league.  Looking down the list I'm fairly sure the only player with an average close to that is Samaraweera.  In an interview I was reading Katich said he wants to bounce back after last year, and with the Australian team coming over later in the year, this would be the perfect summer to prove to them why they axed him too early from the Test team (he has no chance of getting picked, Michael Clarke hates him).  Added to that, he is an opening batsmen so will most likely get 1 or 2 extra innings than many of the others on the list (who are middle order batsmen)

I wanted to get with Quiney, as suggested by Dubai, but the 10/1 suggested is now 11/2, so I was way too slow, & that is not a bet now.

We have had £10 @ 20/1 on Simon Kaitch though, as suggested by you. Thanks.

£10 @ 20/1, Corals, Simon Kaitch, Top Division Two batsman.

ON

10/04/2013 10:41AM  Single
To Win £ 10.00 Simon Katich - Division 2 Outright - Top Run Scorer @ 20/1 21.00

[tikay]

CC DIVISION 2

Essex - Good young players coming through but they they are going to need a big April/May to still be in contention late on
(+ve) Bopara should be available for the whole season, giving them the best all-rounder in the league, to go with the best keeper (Foster)
3 very promising seam bowlers (Mills, Topley & Craddock) to go with a fairly strong looking top 7
(-ve) Letting 2 of their best players (Shah & Ten Doeschate) go off and play in the IPL will hurt them since they will have played 7 games by the time they return.  They also lost Adam Wheater to Hampshire
Coach seems unpopular and has failed so far, probably his last chance this season

Hampshire - Great one day team that should finish in the top 2 or 3 in the CC
(+ve) Batting looks very solid - Adams, Bailey/McKenzie, Carberry, Vince, Ervine.  Runs shouldn't be a problem
They signed Ajmal for the end of the season who will likely rip through at least a couple of batting line-ups in this division
(-ve) Seam attack looks to lack depth compared to Lancashire

Lancashire - Pretty much expected to win the league but (2011 aside) they are renowned for underachieving
(+ve) On paper they have the best squad with a very good balance
Signed Kabir Ali and Simon Katich who I rate pretty highly, both bound to do well in this division
(-ve) Possibility of Glenn Chapple dying mid run up if they put any more workload on him.  
Been favourites plenty of times before and the expectation has become a burden

Kent - Threw it away last year after being top for so long, kept almost exactly the same squad
(+ve) Some great experienced players in Key, Jones, Tredwell & Stevens and a lot of potential talent, some of which (Bell-Drummond/Northeast) are already performing.
Their first XI can match any team in this division so if they avoid injuries they have a real chance
(-ve) Can't afford an overseas player, so will need some of the unproven youngsters to perform in order to go up
A couple of injuries to key players and they have no chance

Glamorgan - Hard to tell if they have are beginning to rebuild or continuing their downward slump
(+ve) The likes of Goodwin, North, Allenby, Wallace, Wagg could get into any side in this division
(-ve) They have depended so much on 4 or 5 players in the past and I see no reason it will change this season.  
Their best bowler left for Middlesex, so I'm not sure how often they will get 20 wickets in a match

Leicestershire - Young team, mid table would be a very good achievement
(+ve) Didn't do as bad as expected last year and in Sarwan have a solid player / leader
(-ve) Their best player (White) went to Lancashire and has left a big hole in the bowling - I haven't heard of some of the players they have brought in over the winter as replacements
Inferioir in almost every department to the top 3 or 4 teams, almost impossible task to expect promotion

Northants - Went from almost going up in 2011 to really poor last year
(+ve) Trent Copeland is a very good overseas player.  Another Aussie they recruited, Stephen Crook, is meant to be good as well
Plenty of experience and ability in the squad to help (Hall, Middlebrook, Willey, etc)
(-ve) What are they going to do when Copeland leaves?  Unless they get a replacement I'm not sure how often they'll get 20 wickets

Gloucestershire - Very unlikely to get promoted let alone win the league
(+ve) Decent young seam attack with no expectations, could prove a surprise if they hit form & start regularly picking up 20 wickets as a unit
(-ve) Too many "potential" players where basically the stats make pretty grim reading

Worcestershire – Been a yo-yo team in recent years but I can’t see them going back up this time around
(+ve) Samaraweera is exactly the sort of overseas signing they needed, impressive solid batsmen
(-ve) They finished bottom of Div1 last year, despite Phil Hughes having a very good season.  Without him (or Solanki) this year I think their batting looks vulnerable, even in this league.
Bowling is over reliant on the ageing Alan Richardson


My Prediction & % chance of winning Div 2
1. Hampshire   (25%)
2. Lancashire  (25%)
3. Kent  (16%)
4. Essex  (13%)
5. Northants  (7%)
6. Glamorgan  (3%)
7. Worcestershire  (5%)
8. Leicestershire  (3%)
9. Gloucestershire  (3%)

Realistically Glamorgan, Gloucestershire and Leicestershire have very little chance of going up, let alone winning the league.  Worcester look really weak to me, can't believe most bookies have them around 7/1 to win the league - I'll happily lay 10/1.  Any of the 5 remaining teams could win the league.  I don't see any value in the Kent, Lancashire or Essex price for reasons I mentioned earlier - Kent's squad looks thin and the 5/1 offered is reflective of their best XI not the squad as a whole.  Essex have 7 Championship games before the end of May (when the IPL ends and they get 2 of their best players back).  Lancashire & Hampshire look pretty equal to me, so no point in backing the shorter price.  As for Northants, I agree that they are definitely underrated by the bookies.  They shouldn't be the same price as Gla, Glo, Leic.  The problem is as other contenders will strengthen in the 2nd half of the season (Essex, Hampshire), Northants will be considerably weaker when Copeland leaves.  If they are to go up they have to be top at the start of August in my opinion OR get a top quality bowler in for the last 2 months, which I'm not sure they can afford

So that leaves my choice, Hampshire at 4/1.  Saeed Ajmal is one of the best spinners in the world and so when he joins Danny Briggs at the start of August I suspect they will win lots of matches on wearing pitches.  Their top 6 is the best in the league (on paper anyway!) and they have 2 decent keepers.  Not only does their first XI look very strong but, just like Lancashire, they have depth if they do get injuries.  If the seamers (Wood, Tomlinson, Balcombe) can get 20 wickets on a regular basis they will be the team to beat.

I haven't had a look at the other markets yet, will do that tonight at some point

Top stuff, thanks.

We have £40 @ 4/1, Ladbrokes, Hampshire to win the CC, Division 2.

ON

Hampshire
 
2013 County Championship Divison 2
Singles - Tournament Winner 1 line @ £40.0 per line.Total Stake £40.00Potential Return £200.00 Receipt No: O/142640973/0000308

[TightEnd]

I am really struggling for time to contribute, so forgive the lack of essay

£10 e/w please Northants to win CC Div 2 at 20-1, top three required

Price is big value for a much revamped squad with a good overseas pro to start off with, and plenty of young talent coming through

Don't disagree with Hampshire, this is a banzai flyer on a completely overlooked team that I think has a shot at top 3, certainly no worse than teams priced at 10-1 or less

[tikay]

I am really struggling for time to contribute, so forgive the lack of essay

£10 e/w please Northants to win CC Div 2 at 20-1, top three required

Price is big value for a much revamped squad with a good overseas pro to start off with, and plenty of young talent coming through

Don't disagree with Hampshire, this is a banzai flyer on a completely overlooked team that I think has a shot at top 3, certainly no worse than teams priced at 10-1 or less

Me too, as to struggling for time!

We are safely aboard.

£10 EW @ 20/1, Sporting Bet, qtr odds 1,2,3, Northants to win CC Div Two.

ON

Bet Type: Single
County Championship Division 2 2013 County Championship Divisin 2 2013 Winner
Northamptonshire
20/1
Cricket Each Way: 1/4 1 - 3
Possible Payout 270.00 GBP
2 bets @
10.00 GBP 
Total Cost: 20.00 GBP Total Possible Payout
(inc. stake): 270.00 GBP

[moonandback]

cough cough Micheal Weaver top Amateur cough cough
 in case you forgot.

Ironically he is paired with Craig Stadler for the first day (weaver posts on 2+2 as Stadler)

[tikay]

cough cough Micheal Weaver top Amateur cough cough
 in case you forgot.

Ironically he is paired with Craig Stadler for the first day (weaver posts on 2+2 as Stadler)

Ha, thanks!

Not forgotten, doing redarmi's next, & then yours.

So many, my head is spinning!

[Dubai]

Redarmi put up first round leader bets as well. Stop slacking!

[Bad Beat]

 Still 18/5 Weaver with Betfair fixed odds Tikay (and anyone else who isn't on yet).

[Dubai]

Castano is 3.45 solid ok bf, so hope you took the 4.0 as Neils man recommended

[tikay]

I will be having a ton of bets on the Masters but I think the most interesting one is a bet on the first round leader.  It looks as thought there is a significant chance of bad weather later in the afternoon.  It is due to reach about 1-2pm so ideally we want a player that is finished by then which means a teetime of 10am or earlier.  There may well be a 100/1 shot that is good value here each way but I am going to stick to a simpler approach and just look at the front of the market. 

This is a list of players under 50/1 (I used 365 prices) to lead after the first round with a teetime before 10am:

Westwood
Rose
Snedeker
Schwartzel
Gmac

So five players out of 13.  I think we need to eliminate Snedeker simply because we already bet him to win the tournament and it doesn't look great with his injury at the moment.  Increasing our exposure on him seems silly to me.  If he goes well we will just be happy.  I dont really like McDowell either just because he has missed the cut here twice.  Of the other three I can't really split them.  They all average below 70 for their first rounds over their last 50 events.  westwood and Rose have both led the event after the first round in the last five years and Schwartzel is a past winner so they all look solid to me and would suggest we bet them all each way.  Best prices are 20/1 Rose with Ladbrokes. 33/1 Westwood with Ladbrokes and 33/1 Schwartzel with Betvictor.  Suggest 15 e/w on each of them.

Thanks Stu.

We have missed a little bit of price, but not too bad, & I think they are still reasonable.

First Round Leader;

£15 EW @ 33/1, Ladbrokes, Lee Westwood

£15 EW @ 18/1, Corals, Justin Rose

£15 EW @ 28/1, Wm Hill, Charl Schwartzel.

ON
 


Lee Westwood
First Round Leader
Singles - First Round Leader - Each Way
2 lines @ £15.0 per line
Total Stake £30.00
Potential Return £648.75
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000313





10/04/2013 11:58AM
 
Single
Each Way
£ 30.00
Justin Rose - US Masters - 1st Round Leader - US Masters - 1st Round Leader @ 18/1 19.00

£ 0.00




Single EW
Charl Schwartzel @ 28/11st Round LeaderOpen
The Masters - 1st Round Leader
Stake: £30.00Potential Returns: £555.00

[tikay]

Redarmi put up first round leader bets as well. Stop slacking!

See above.

Go away.