Tips for Tikay

[redarmi]

mickleson not one for history then in at -4 in the par 3 contest

interestingly furyk who was -4 gets a no score on the last for a void round

I have seen this mentioned a few times this week about dont back the par 3 winner.  Is there any logical reason why the par 3 winner should underperform in the tournament proper?  I can't think of one but a few otherwise intelligent bettors have said it to me.

[Dubai]

No reason whatsoever imo, its just a myth- bear in mind most of the winners will be 33-1 to win Masters. Its not hard to back 200 1/33 winners in a row, so we could be here a while before someone wins both anyway. Just variance and coincedence

[redarmi]

http://www.pitpass.com/48789-Roy-the-Boys-betting-guide-to-China

I know the Fred does not run well with F1 betting but above is poker's "Roy the Boy" advising betting on Alonso at 4/1 for China this weekend.

Loads of 4/1 still available http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/chinese-grand-prix/winner

Recommend £30 Alonso win in china with WH.

I wouldn't stake Roy the Boy in a poker tournament @ 1.00 is there a specific reason to back something he likes in an F1 race?  Is he known as a good judge?  Honest question.

[horseplayer]

no of course it is not logical

unless it affected somebodies mindset by actually feeling a negative from winning it

anyway -4 unlikely to be the winning score

[tikay]

mickleson not one for history then in at -4 in the par 3 contest

interestingly furyk who was -4 gets a no score on the last for a void round

I have seen this mentioned a few times this week about dont back the par 3 winner.  Is there any logical reason why the par 3 winner should underperform in the tournament proper?  I can't think of one but a few otherwise intelligent bettors have said it to me.

As everyone else said, plus........the Media adore The Masters, & helping to propogate "myths & traditions" is right up their street.

If a selection of ours - Woods, say - won the Par 3 thing I'd not be rushing to lay off.....

[a.sparrow]

Really like the 4/5 available with titan bet for barca vs psg to have more goals than juve barca game.  Does anyone have any views on if this is a decent price or not? If the experts agree its a good value price then I'd suggest a decent (£50?) bet for fred.

[tikay]

Really like the 4/5 available with titan bet for barca vs psg to have more goals than juve barca game.  Does anyone have any views on if this is a decent price or not? If the experts agree its a good value price then I'd suggest a decent (£50?) bet for fred.

Hi sparrer,

I assume you mean "Juve - Bayern"?

Logic of the bet? Just curioys at the moment!

[horseplayer]

mickelson not scored!

[horseplayer]

disqualified himself

[Tal]

Barca-PSG over Juve-Bayern.

How often do they score the same number d'ya reckon?

I wonder whether the difference will be in how PSG play. They might try to play it tight and nick one, rather than go all guns blazing. Depends whether Thiago Silva turns up again, I suppose. I take it Barca are still without their Gareth Bale?

Bayern have little to concern them, from what I can see. Maybe it is a good bet. Just hesitant over the price that side of evens personally. Love to be told I shouldn't be because that's just my ice cream instinct

[Tal]

What a stupid bloody game golf is.

Hold a major, showpiece event. Get all the media and hype going. Get everyone to show up for an exhibition competition the day before the kick off and everyone is frightened to win in case they don't then win the main event.

If you've paid to watch that day, you should get a discount

[Karabiner]

disqualified himself

They must be doing it to avoid a possible "winner's" interview and all of the associated negativity that would go with it.

[horseplayer]

mickleson on betfair

2.10   £13       £120
2.18            £60
2.22   £22       
2.24            £17
2.30            £105
2.32            £10
2.40            £24
2.42            £84
2.50            £24
2.74            £240
2.76            £20
2.80            £49
2.90            £4
2.92            £40
2.96            £88
2.98            £10
3.00   £90       £56
3.05            £5
3.10            £26
3.20            £28
3.25            £4
3.30            £55
3.40            £68
3.45            £152
3.50            £12
3.95            £4
4.00            £50
4.10            £102
5.00            £4
6.00   £11       
7.00            £10
7.20            £11
7.40            £4
7.60            £3
8.00            £14
8.20            £4
9.60            £19
10.00            £14
12.00            £20
14.00            £30
15.00   £3       
16.00            £26
18.00   £12       
26.00            £20
27.00            £19
28.00            £2
29.00            £44
30.00            £7
32.00            £12
34.00            £44
36.00            £4
38.00            £49
40.00            £132
42.00            £78
44.00            £10
250.00            £0


suggest a lot of people have done zero research on the amount of ns in this every year!

jesus

[a.sparrow]

Really like the 4/5 available with titan bet for barca vs psg to have more goals than juve barca game.  Does anyone have any views on if this is a decent price or not? If the experts agree its a good value price then I'd suggest a decent (£50?) bet for fred.

Hi sparrer,

I assume you mean "Juve - Bayern"?

Logic of the bet? Just curioys at the moment!

I did indeed mean Juve - Bayern.  Reasons being Barcelona are known goal machines, even though they are without Messi tonight , they won 5-0 this weekend without him.  Fabregas and Villa are effective goal scorers.  PSG also have a host of attacking talent.  Barca have only kept 15 clean sheets from 49 games this term, PSG have scores 2+ in their last 6 champions league games, domestically they have scored 14 in their last 15.  First game ended 2-2, neither team are 'safe' and both teams will be looking for goals, its Barca's style to attack and PSG need to score.  Both teams to score in this game is 4/5 and I also like this bet a lot.  Barca are also missing Puyol and Mascherano, two very important defensive players which will give PSG more chance of scoring.

Why do I think 4/5 is value for them to outscore juve - bayern?  Well Bayern are also goal machines of late, recently beat hamburg 9-2!  They are winning 2-0 from the first leg and and don't need to score to qualify, Juve can't afford to let in any away goals or the tie could well  be beyond them and they are a tough nut to crack at home, won the last 3 champions league games to nil.  They do have to attack to qualify so they could leave gaps at the back which bayern are more than capable of exploiting.

I don't know the true price for this bet, but personally I wouldn't lay this bet at this price which makes me feel like backing it.  I don't know the maths behind it which is why I asked for the experts approval first, I just feel its a good bet and even if Fred doesn't back it, if i gained any knowledge from replies if it was a good bet or not it would help me out.

[horseplayer]

best suggestion

BRENTFORD v crewe

first scorer and anytime Harlee Dean at 40-1 and 16-1

reasoning

crewe have conceded a lot of goals from set pieces this season (top 3 in league)

dean is one of the more likely candidates from brentford having netted a few times this season and gone close on various other occasions

the 50-1 that was there when i first started typing this was even better but the 40-1 and 16-1 is still to big.

suggest

£3 first scorer

£5 anytime scorer

both prices with coral

general price for first is 25-1 and anytime varies from a general 7-1 to one firm offering 12-1 and coral the standout 16-1