Tips for Tikay

[Chompy]

Denmark is a poor favourite @ around 13/8. It's now the same sort of price as Norway a few years ago and Loreen last year. Those two were much stronger. I think we're in for a funny result this year and will be puntering accordingly.

[doubleup]

1/5 first 4 is better than 1/4 first 3.  So given the same price you'd be better off betting at Ladbrokes.  

Backing 8/1 e/w somewhere else is just a bit better than betting 7/1 e/w with Ladbrokes.  There isn't a lot in it, so our betting was close to the optimum.

Just for example, assuming Henley is a true 8/1 chance and we back £15 e/w.  You can guess he is roughly 2/1 to get top 3 or 5/4 to get top 4 (.1111 x 3 and .1111 x 4).  They feel a bit too big, but are probably close enough for this purpose.  

So at 7/1 Ladbrokes, we expect to get 15 x 8 x .1111 back from wins and 15 x 12/5 x .4444 back from places which is £29.33 in total.

If we took 8/1 elsewhere, we expect to get 15 x 9 x .11111 back from wins and 15 x 3 x .3333 back from places which is £30 total.

If you take Betfair as gospel, then the best bet looks to be Lynn, you beat Betfair by most, get the best price and get the better Ladbrokes e/w terms.

Thanks for this Doobs and I appreciate this is somewhat back of envelope stuff but I would like to put out a theoretical question.  Is it fair to assume that finishing positions are distributed equally like that?  There was some discussion earlier today on Fred about the distribution of Tigers finishing positions which suggested he was significantly more likely to finish first than second, third, fourth etc.  Given that Henley is, rightly or wrongly, fourth favourite in this market isn''t he theoretically more likely to finish fourth than first and arent his finishing positions in this market largely normally distributed around his mean finishing position?  In which case that extra position in fourth may actually be disproportionately valuable......I am just putting this out there as a discussion point as I honestly don't know and if anyone will know it is Doobs i would have thought!!!!

Will come back later.  That is why I said it is too big.  

In the example above I am producing something very rough that is good enough to show which is better of 1/5 first 4 or 1/4 first 3.  

In this market there are 17 runners and you aren't going to get a distribution that gives the probability of finishing 1st to 9th as .11111 and no chance at all of finishing 10th to 17th.  The reality is that 10th is a little less likely than 9th.  My gut feeling is that he isn't going to have 4/9ths chance of finishing in the top 4.  So I don't think the each way terms are particularly good here, but Ladbrokes are better than the rest.

I think the normal distribution is a bad distribution to use for your model here, as his results will be skewed towards him finishing in the first few positions.  Normal will give you a bell shape, which assumes that you are equally likely to be 5 less than the mean and 5 more.  

The real distribution curve would be something like this.



Without modelling the data, I'd expect the real distribution to be something like a cross between the red and pink curves above for all the favourites.  So it will be flattish between 1 and 4 or so and then tail off.  It may just slope down from 1st for the favourites.  If I was pushed, I'd say 4th was less likely than 3rd for the players near the top of the market like Coetzee and Henley.  I wouldn't be so confident with Lynn, as he is much closer to average.  It is plausible that he may be more likely to finish 4th than 3rd (or 1st).  The fact he is closer to average also supports my assertion that he is likely the best each way bet here.  

FWIW I'd be very confident the Woods finishing position distribution was more like the red line than the pink line.  

Isn't variance a significant factor in the win/place relationship?

If you look at the place prices of Mark Johnston horses they are much higher than average as a proportion of their win price.  (I think probably because many of them adopt a front running style and then fade badly when caught)

As an example if players of the style of Luke Donald and Phil Mickleson were both 6 back on day 4 wouldn't the Phil win more but place less?

[BigAdz]

swoon

Is that a bellend curve?

[Karabiner]

swoon

Is that a bellend curve?

Whatever is is mighty impressive and compelled me into putting some Pink Floyd on.

[Junior Senior]

I know thread probably can't get on

Stan James Basel goals tonight over 1.5 11/8. Best 11/10 elsewhere, odds on in spots

Having seen the Basel front three last week (best pair of wingers you'll see in a long time, well best pair of Swiss league wingers you'll see in a long time) when they scored 2 at White Hart Lane, I struggle to accept that over 1.5 tonight is an 11/8 shot

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/basel-v-tottenham/total-home-goals-over-under-1-5

edit: now 6/5

Looks good to me. Spurs have to score tonight, which always offers the chance for a counter.

The price is the wrong side of even money to me.

Averaged 1 goal a game at home in group stages and were not prolific away. They also don't have to score as they have the away goals. Spurs without Lennon and Bale means this cold be a low scoring affair. Not sure they will get more than 1 goal. I would say price is about right. Just my view though of course.

[rinswun]

Shah left out again but on the plus side, one o the guys they picked over him just went first ball saw RR are 0/1. Pune left out Wright and Eoin Morgan only scored 2 today so we're still not in bad shape despite three non appearances. Let's hope Pune do the business now.

[tikay]

Shah left out again but on the plus side, one o the guys they picked over him just went first ball saw RR are 0/1. Pune left out Wright and Eoin Morgan only scored 2 today so we're still not in bad shape despite three non appearances. Let's hope Pune do the business now.

Been offline most of the day, saw the earlier Update, thank you.

I sense the tide is turning for us.

We have some County Cricket interests too, but it is a little early to sweat them yet awhile.

[tikay]

Aftertiming Alert

Some bets for The Masteres were put up after I logged off last night, & I'd earlier said I would not be able to action them.

In fact, I DID get the Doobsy stuff on late thiis morning (from the Car Park of Watford Gap Services....) , but only for very small money indeed, I got heavily restricted by Paddy Power. For the three EW Bets, (22/1, 70/1 & 70/1) my total staked was, incredibly, only £8.

I was also kindly worded by Mr Channing that Ladbrokes were going 16/1 Mickelson until Noon, & I got some of that, too, £20 EW @ 16/1.

I did NOT place the proposed bet by Sharky, as there had been much poo-pooing of it, but welcome aboard Sharky, please hang around, & I'm pretty sure we will soon be making love. We seem to have gained a lot of new, insighful, regulars, the more the better imo, so thank you.

As to those Bets I placed this morning, I'm not sure it would be compliant for Fred to confirm they are on AFTER the Event has started, so unless it is agreed otherwise, I'll keep them for myself.

I'll re-affirm our Masters Book a bit later, so we can better keep track of all the money we will win.

[BigAdz]

Anyone getting vaguely excited yet?

[TightEnd]

Anyone getting vaguely excited yet?

yes, love watching Aaron Finch bat for Pune.

[tikay]

Anyone getting vaguely excited yet?

About?......

[tikay]

A reminder of our Masters book so far.



Outright

Snedeker, £25 WIN @ 25/1

Tiger Woods, £30 EW @ 6/1

Rory McIllroy, £25 EW @ 12/1

Phil Mickelson, £25 EW @ 16/1

Justin Rose, £50 EW @ 22/1

First Round Leader

Lee Westwood, £15 EW @ 33/1

Justin Rose, £15 EW @ 18/1

Charl Schwartzel, £15 EW @ 28/1

Top Amateur

Weaver, £60 @ 4.6

Top Debutant

Coetzee £15 EW @ 7/1

Henley £15 EW @ 7/1

Lynn £10 EW @ 12/1

Invested so far - £515 approx.

[Tal]

I'm more nervous if anything. We've got no Bale, Lennon, Defoe, Sandro or, to a lesser extent, Gallas and need to win on the night away in Basle against a decent looking side.

[tikay]

I know thread probably can't get on

Stan James Basel goals tonight over 1.5 11/8. Best 11/10 elsewhere, odds on in spots

Having seen the Basel front three last week (best pair of wingers you'll see in a long time, well best pair of Swiss league wingers you'll see in a long time) when they scored 2 at White Hart Lane, I struggle to accept that over 1.5 tonight is an 11/8 shot

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/basel-v-tottenham/total-home-goals-over-under-1-5

edit: now 6/5

Rich,

Best price now 11/10. I know the recommend has not met with universal glee, but your bets rarely lack oomph & zing.

Do you still think we should get on, or is it now a swerve? Your decision. (11/10 though).

[TightEnd]

I know thread probably can't get on

Stan James Basel goals tonight over 1.5 11/8. Best 11/10 elsewhere, odds on in spots

Having seen the Basel front three last week (best pair of wingers you'll see in a long time, well best pair of Swiss league wingers you'll see in a long time) when they scored 2 at White Hart Lane, I struggle to accept that over 1.5 tonight is an 11/8 shot

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/basel-v-tottenham/total-home-goals-over-under-1-5

edit: now 6/5

Rich,

Best price now 11/10. I know the recommend has not met with universal glee, but your bets rarely lack oomph & zing.

Do you still think we should get on, or is it now a swerve? Your decision. (11/10 though).

Not really, it was a bet at 11/8 I thought and not especially out of line at 11/10